2023 Oscar Predictions

[OscarGuy]

Based on my reading of the film's promotional details so far, the cheese is semi-intentional (and after Everything Everywhere All at Once, I don't think we can say cheese doesn't sell with Oscar voters). That said, it also seems to have a solid feminist perspective about the nature of the world. I think we need to wait to see the final product before declaring the cheese as Oscar-killing. This isn't Cocaine Bear.

[Reza]

This Barbie film sounds awfully cheesy. Why would it be award worthy? Surely not because Greta Gerwig directs and Margot Robie stars.

[anonymous1980]

Let me try and do some super early predictions and see how much I get right:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Air
Barbie
The Color Purple
Dune: Part Two
The Holdovers
How Do You Live?
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Saltburn

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Denis Villenueve, Dune: Part Two
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Celine Song, Past Lives

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Annette Bening, Nyad
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Zendaya, Challengers

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert de Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
John Magaro, Past Lives
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Viola Davis, Air
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alex Convery, Air
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Yuji Sakamoto, Monster
Celine Song, Past Lives
Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Denis Villenueve, Eric Roth and Jon Spaiths, Dune: Part Two
Hayao Miyazaki, How Do You Live?
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

[Sabin]

I'll throw this out as something I've been thinking about. Three of the last four Best Picture winners premiered in the first half of the year. That's Parasite, CODA, and Everything Everywhere All At Once. That might not mean anything this year but it's certainly another break from the norm. If I'm correct, the previous three Best Picture winners to premiere in the first half of the year would take you back fifteen more years to 2005 (The Artist, The Hurt Locker, Crash). If that trend continues this year, that would include Air, Killers of the Flower Moon, I guess Wes Anderson's Asteroid City (if/when it premieres at Cannes), as well as any other Cannes offerings.

Just one of many interesting shifts.

[Greg]

There is a big question as to whether Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis is released in 2023 or 2024. It already finished production on the 12th of the month; but, apparently there will be a lot of post-production work.

[Big Magilla]

Da'vine Joy Randolph was my sixth pick for Best Supporting Actress.

[Sabin]

There are only three films that I would put any stock in at this point:

-Killers of the Flower Moon: Martin Scorsese has made eight films in the twenty-first century. Only two of them have missed the Academy's attention (Silence, Shutter Island). Of his previous eight films in the 20th century, only one was nominated for Best Picture (Goodfellas), with another up for Best Director (Last Temptation of Christ) and another for Screenplay (The Age of Innocence). His trajectory is just far more in line with the Academy's taste these days. I think this one is a good bet.

-The Holdovers: speaking of in line with the Academy's taste, almost everything that Payne does has Academy crossover save for Downsizing. I recall there being a brief rumor that the film's test screenings were fantastic and that Focus was considering releasing the film last fall. That's good enough for me. Da'Vine Joy Randolph apparently plays a head cook whose son recently died in Vietnam. She's been inside the realm of possibility for an Oscar nomination for a bit now and (Downsizing aside) Payne gets actors nominated. They never win but they get nominated.

-Air: I'm least confident about this one. It seems as though Air is a good film but not a great film. But it strikes me as the kind of film that might look better by the end of the year where professionalism often gets confused for artistry.

[Big Magilla]

I was going to wait until April Fool's Day to do this, but nothing ventured, nothing gained, so let me the first one here to go down this uncertain path.

2023

Best Picture
Air (Amazon)
Blitz (Apple)
Challengers (MGM)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
Maestro (Netflix))
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Saltburn (Amazon/UA)
Strangers (Searchlight)

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Best Actress
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Kate Winslet, Lee

Best Supporting Actor
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Harris Dickinson, Blitz
Jacob Elordi, Saltburn
Bryan Tyree Henry, Flint Strong
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Viola Davis, Air
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Best Director
Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon