2023 Oscar Predictions

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Are we at the point where the screenplay categories should be combined?

No way!

I agrees with Wes. My own opinion? Barbie should be considered Original. Should it be considered Original based on Academy precedent? No, for all the reasons Clayton Davis listed. The only reasons I thought Gerwig/Baumbach might get away with it is just due to cronyism. Let's be honest. They want to win. I'm not convinced they won't.

[Okri]

Are we at the point where the screenplay categories should be combined?

[OscarGuy]

Here's a more robust defense. Every Barbie and Ken in the film is based on an existing character and identity created by Mattel. Many of the costumes and settings were taken directly from pre-existing "storylines" and product ranges. Barbie has also had countless animated films that have established the identity of the character.

Barbie wasn't created out of whole cloth. If it weren't for the identities of President Barbie, Supreme Court Justice Barbie, etc, many of the core concepts of the film wouldn't hit as fittingly. Barbie the film is tied up in the identity of Barbie the doll. It's an intellectual property that exists entirely at the creation of Mattel over the decades and Barbie the film does not exist entirely within a vacuum.

[Big Magilla]

Okay, so I read Clayton Davis' article in full.

This is how he ends the article:

"Many films about pre-existing characters are ultimately classified as adapted screenplays — such as previous nominees like “Toy Story 3,” “Borat 2,” “Before Sunset” and “Before Midnight.” Barbie and Ken were Mattel dolls long before they came to the big screen, which is where the Oscars’ decision likely originated."

That's a ridiculous argument but it's probably true. However, the characters in the films he cites were considered original in the films that they were sequels to. Barbie isn't a sequel. A more apt comparison would be Santa Claus and Santa existed long before Valentine Davies won an Oscar for Best Original Story for Miracle on 34th Street.

[Big Magilla]

For years the WGA awards came out after the Oscars as did the BAFTAs when most of these other awards now considered precursors didn't exist, so one less group in the pre-Oscar mix is a good thing as far as I'm concerned.

I don't care what effect the adapted ruling has on Barbie's total nominations at the Oscars. I'm ambivalent about the film. I don't care whether it gets loads of Oscar nominations or not. On one hand it's relief that it's out of original contention where it could have beaten The Holdovers, Past Lives and other worthy candidates, but on the other hand it could conceivably knock out a superior candidate for the nomination.

What bothers me is that, love it, hate it, or be ambivalent about it, Barbie is an original story about a doll, not an adaptation about a doll coming to life in some book, play, or story. It's not another version of Pinocchio. I really want to know what their thinking was in coming up with such a ruling.

Films about real-life people are deemed original by AMPAS unless they're taken from a book, play, or story no matter how close they may be to real-life situations in the subject's life. Maestro is one such film this year. The same applies to stories about fictional characters like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny. Why should a film about a doll be any different?

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
What was their rationale and why don't they have to provide one? The secret AMPAS committee is as bad as the Supreme Court.

Well, let's see how the year goes first.

OscarGuy wrote
I wouldn't look to WGA to help anyway. They've scheduled their awards for AFTER the Oscars this year. It's weird. I think they've just said Fukitol and given up since they can't be bothered to adjust their rules to allow non-guild members to compete.

I've made this point before but I'll make it again. The WGA Awards don't exist to predict the Oscars. They exist to honor excellence within the Writer's Guild. It's voted on by Writer's Guild members with the purpose of honoring one of their own. If someone isn't in the Guild (and sometimes that's by choice), I don't see why they should compete. Why give out Employee of the Year to someone who doesn't work in the office? Now, if they want to open it up so that they can vote for whomever, that's on them. I have no problem with an award that only honors people in the guild, especially coming after the year the WGA just had.

That said, I do think it's silly that the WGA Awards are coming out after the Oscars but they're already not going to be able to help us predict.

[Big Magilla]

What was their rationale and why don't they have to provide one? The secret AMPAS committee is as bad as the Supreme Court.

[OscarGuy]

I wouldn't look to WGA to help anyway. They've scheduled their awards for AFTER the Oscars this year. It's weird. I think they've just said Fukitol and given up since they can't be bothered to adjust their rules to allow non-guild members to compete.

[Sabin]

HarryGoldfarb wrote
For what it’s worth, Barbie has now been officially considered as an adapted screenplay by the Academy…

https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/ba ... 235848136/

Best Adapted Screenplay is now as strong a lineup as I've seen in ages with American Fiction, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things as the frontrunners (and all likely winners in other years) with All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest as possible upsets. No idea who wins and we probably won't know going into Oscar night because Barbie is a very likely WGA winner and won't be in the same category. We're looking at an exciting race.

Best Original Screenplay looks a bit up in the air with possible contenders in the way of Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Iron Claw, Maestro, May December, and Past Lives in the running with the winner likely either The Holdovers or Past Lives.

OscarGuy wrote
I called it.

You got it. I thought they'd acquiesce.

[OscarGuy]

I called it.

[HarryGoldfarb]

anonymous1980 wrote
I may have to adjust my predictions because Barbie is officially being submitted as an ORIGINAL screenplay. Of course, the final decision rests with the Academy but for now, that's where it's being pushed.

The Academy will probably honor their request regardless of whether the WGA does (see Moonlight). Which means Barbie probably wins Original in a walk.

For what it’s worth, Barbie has now been officially considered as an adapted screenplay by the Academy…

https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/ba ... 235848136/

[Big Magilla]

Dammit!

I knew that was going to happen but removed it from my original screenplay predictions and kept it out of both categories pending something decisive. Considering that nothing was forthcoming, I went ahead and put in adapted.

Moving Barbie back to Original, replacing it with Poor Things in Adapted.

Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Maestro
Past Lives

Best Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
I may have to adjust my predictions because Barbie is officially being submitted as an ORIGINAL screenplay. Of course, the final decision rests with the Academy but for now, that's where it's being pushed.

The Academy will probably honor their request regardless of whether the WGA does (see Moonlight). Which means Barbie probably wins Original in a walk.

[anonymous1980]

I may have to adjust my predictions because Barbie is officially being submitted as an ORIGINAL screenplay. Of course, the final decision rests with the Academy but for now, that's where it's being pushed.

[Okri]

Barbie advanced ticket sales signal $80-100m opening weekend, Oppenheimer $50m.

The numbers from Friday are crazy.