Oscar Odds

[Big Magilla]

The bookies' current odds for the Oscar are in this order:

Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Tár
All Quiet on the Western Front
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Triangle of Sadness

Nothing says that this is the order in which the votes will be cast from most to least, but assuming it is, let's further assume that EEAAO gets the most votes but not 50% of the vote plus one under the asinine preferential ballot system. The most important voters then become those who voted for Triangle of Sadness because their votes will go to their second-place selections and so on until one film, be it AAEEO, Banshees, or something else hits the magic 50% plus one minimum. If that film's second choices don't do the trick, they will go on to the next lowest, and so on, until some film reaches the magic number.

The question then becomes what do you think Triangle of Sadness voters will have listed as their second choice? I'm thinking maybe primarily a split between Banshees and Women Talking which won't be enough to change the outcome, so they look at Elvis' second choice selections. I see those as primarily a split between EEAAO and Banshees which won't be decisive enough either, so they go to Avatar. What will Avatar's supporters' second choice be? I'm thinking EEAAO so the presumed frontrunner wins. But what if the oddsmakers have it wrong and Women Talking. All Quiet, Tár, and The Fabelmans all rank below Avatar and Elvis? Then it becomes interesting, and we may be looking at an upset no one is predicting or one that takes the bean counters longer to do their job.