Correcting Oscar 2013

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
In Supporting Actress, I think Oprah may have just got through on the basis of there not really being anyone else, but I'll never understand why Amy Adams in Her didn't get any traction at all.

I agree. She's quite good in Her. She was having a good year in 2013. A double nomination wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility.

[dws1982]

Bored. How would the Oscar race change if:
-Bradley Cooper was pushed for lead in American Hustle
-Julia Roberts was pushed for lead for August, Osage County

I think Cooper and Roberts both miss in Lead.

Bruhl probably gets that nomination in Support, although I either haven't seen Rush or it was so unmemorable that I don't remember anything about it. He seems like the type of European actor who would get nominated at some point--in high profile international films (just this past year, even), in smaller roles in American films--but then so does Mads Mikkelsen. I do remember being kind of surprised that he didn't get nominated though. Gandolfini wouldn't have been a surprise either, though, since it was the only chance to honor him, it was a widely-acclaimed performance in a well-liked movie, and he was doing something different than his Tony Soprano persona. I don't think it would've been Hanks though, because even Thompson didn't have support to get nominated in Lead. In Supporting Actress, I think Oprah may have just got through on the basis of there not really being anyone else, but I'll never understand why Amy Adams in Her didn't get any traction at all.

[Sabin]

Bored. How would the Oscar race change if:
-Bradley Cooper was pushed for lead in American Hustle
-Julia Roberts was pushed for lead for August, Osage County

I don't think either candidate would have made it into the lead races but each would open up a slot in the supporting races. What might have gotten in?

He seems like a foregone conclusion now but Jonah Hill didn't get mentions from the HFPA, SAG, or BAFTA for The Wolf of Wall Street. That's how much they were looking around for an option besides a trip to Sole Nomineeville. Daniel Bruhl was cited by all three groups for Rush and James Gandolfini got a posthumous SAG nomination for Enough Said. It would've been incredible if they gave it to critic's fave James Franco for Spring Breakers. I guess Will Forte would've been in the mix for Nebraska for his clearly lead performance but I'll remove him from consideration here. I could see Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks) and LaKeith Stanfield (then Keith) (Short Term 12) possibly getting boosts.

Is Daniel Bruhl a lead in Rush? It's been ages since I've seen it. I barely remember it but he's a co-lead, isn't he? It's a film about the rivalry between the two of them. I'll go with Gandolfini for now but the fight for fifth is a weird one. Maybe Hanks as Disney would pull through?

There's a few more options for Best Supporting Actress. Both SAG and the HFPA backed Oprah Winfrey for Lee Daniel's The Butler. The National Board of Review cited Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station but everywhere else it was co-signing the Academy's eventual five as well as Nyong'o vs. Lawrence. There are two contenders who didn't quite register anywhere that I might've backed: Carey Mulligan in Inside Llewyn Davis (better than usual IMO) and Scarlett Johansson for her unusual voiced performance in Her. Johansson would be beneficiary of a critical role in a Best Picture nominee but it's hard to imagine the Academy would break their streak of ignoring voiced performances.

I think her recent win for The Help helps Spencer here despite the fact that she doesn't have a very showy role in Fruitvale Station. I just don't think Winfrey would be taken that seriously as an actor in 2013.

[Big Magilla]

I hardly remember American Hustle, but I do recall liking Jennifer Lawrence more than the other actors, so I vote neither for Bradley Cooper.

Bruce Dern's character in Nebraska was a supporting one. Second billed Will Forte had a larger one, but sometimes it's star billing and star demands that control these things so it's easy to see why Dern was nominated in lead as per his wishes. However, as you point out, it's difficult to understand how he received a Best Actor nod over Hanks in Captain Phillips, Phoenix in Her, and especially Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis, all three of whom I nominated for my awards along with Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club and Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave. giving the award to Ejiofor. I then nominated Dern in support and gave my award to the Oscar winner, Jared Letto in Dallas Buyers Club. So, I vote support for Dern.

I didn't much care for August: Osage County, and wouldn't have nominated either Streep or Roberts, but they were co-leads, Streep having the tougher one even though Roberts had the slightly larger one. Stage stars Deanna Dunagan and Amy Morton were both nominated in lead for the Tony with Dunagan (in Streep's role). Roni Reed in the role played in the film by Margo Martindale won the Tony for featured actress. The split category placement between Streep and Roberts was the result of typical Harvey Weinstein maneuvering. In fact, at the time, there was suspense as to which one he would push for lead and which one he would push for support. For a while it seemed as though he was going to go for Roberts in lead and Streep in support. However, given that the split was inevitable, they chose right in giving Streep the lead nomination and Roberts the supporting one. So, even though I wouldn't have nominated either one, I voted lead for Streep and support for Roberts.

[Sabin]

I skipped over 2014. If anyone desperately feels that Patricia Arquette, Steve Carell, or J.K. Simmons were in the wrong category, let me know.

We arrive at 2013 where I’m going to be forced to sit out as I’ve never seen August Osage County. I have seen Nebraska and American Hustle though. I’m including the former because it was a conversation at the time and the latter because of how challenging it is to assess these things.

Again, I haven’t seen August Osage County, so I can’t assess proper placement but this is what I do now. Julia Roberts is in 46.55% of the film and Meryl Streep is in 43.97% of it. Someone else can more appropriately fill me in but Roberts would appear to be the audience surrogate, as she is the one going home, and Streep embodies the home and that which Roberts must gain closure on.

I won’t be voting but it would seem to me that these are two lead performances. In my opinion, 2013 was a pretty milquetoast year for actresses who made the cut (I’ve never been a fan of Blanchett in Blue Jasmine) but a pretty terrific one for actresses who didn’t make the cut. Adele Excharchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color is the obvious front-runner in that grouping, but I’d also include Brie Larson for Short Term 12, Julie Delpy for Before Midnight, and my personal favorite Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha. In reality though, it was Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks who probably came closest to a nomination as she managed a SAG nomination over Amy Adams (something I’d forgotten) as well as Meryl Streep at the BAFTAs (they nominated Roberts in support though). Similarly, I’ve never seen Saving Mr. Banks. Retrospective on that year’s race aside, I won’t be voting but I have a hard time imagining that Julia Roberts could get into the Best Actress race.

There was some chatter in 2013 that Bruce Dern might go supporting for Nebraska but he was insistent upon being considered a lead. I can see the argument for supporting placement. Aside from being in the film for 59.29% of the running time, it’s really Will Forte’s journey. Bruce Dern doesn’t really do anything besides take in the world around him. That said, that’s more a feature than a bug of how the film operates. Just as Will Forte is always learning there is more to his father than he initially thought, as the audience we’re always being asked to look at Bruce Dern and ask the same question. I think unlike Alexander Payne’s other wonderful Oscar road trip movie, Sideways (in which Thomas Haden Church is in the film for 47.72%), Nebraska is more of a two-hander towards mutual understanding and less one man’s journey. His character is as much the world of the film as Nebraska itself.

Bruce Dern deserves to keep his consideration as lead, and would probably be my choice to win.

I’m including Bradley Cooper in American Hustle because of what an odd beast the film is and asking if a case could be made that Bradley Cooper is a lead. Bale is in the film for 48.99%, Adams is in it for 36.13%, Cooper is in it for 33.11%, and Lawrence is in it for 14.72% — less than any other supporting nominee, male or female that year, which surprised me. Meanwhile, since 2010 there have only been two actresses nominated for lead with less screen-time than Adams (Davis for The Help and Ma Rainey, and Theron for Bombshell).

From a top level, the film is about Bale and Adams as con artists who get roped into ABSCAM by an FBI agent (Cooper). So, Cooper is basically the opposition to Bale and Adams, which is doubly complicated for Adams because he is also romantically attracted to her. Bale’s main plot complication comes more from Jeremy Renner (a pretty underrated performance by Renner) who represents the honorable life that Bale doesn’t have. So, in effect Bale and Adams flirt with both sides of the law, both of which prove to be as corrupt as they are, and but the end they’re forced to return to each other.

That said, I am tempted to consider Bradley Cooper a lead in American Hustle because of his presence at the beginning of the film. The film makes it clear from the on-set that the film is about the entanglement of the three of them, he then vanished for a stretch of time (maybe 15-20 mins), and then he is there throughout the film. His downfall at the end is both a function of the plot but also personally tragic. He’s given a backstory with his mother, two dreams (one career and one romantic), and a boss whom he deals with — meaning he appears on-screen without Bale or Adams quite frequently. He arguably has more ongoing conflicts and meaningful stakes than Bale or Adams. But he’s also a function of the plot. It just happens to be a David O. Russell plot where which is very generous to all the actors. In a non-David O. Russell movie, I think he would be supporting, but in Russell’s hands, I think a case could be made that American Hustle is a weird movie with three leads. Also, there are so many other truer supporting plays in the film besides Bradley Cooper. It’s just star power that got Cooper in and muscled out other supporting performances.

I’m going to go contrarian and say Cooper is a lead but he wouldn’t get the nomination. That said nearly ten years later, I'm still pretty astonished that so many performances went by the wayside for Christian Bale (who manages both Globe and SAG nominations) including Joaquin Phoenix for Her, Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips, and especially Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis.