2022 Baseball Post-Season

[Mister Tee]

Yeah, the Astro pitchers are obviously high quality, but the Yankee bats have been ice cold since postseason began. Astro hitting hasn't been all that much better, but a little beats nothing. Cole was victimized by a Judge/Bader miscommunication that let an easy fly ball drop in, which preceded what otherwise would have been a solo home run. Of course, last night, the solo alone would have been enough to win. The Astro 6th inning rally -- culminating in a soft single that scored 2 -- put the game out of all but fantasy reach. The only reason for clinging to any hope for the series is the fact that the Yankees looked equally fated to expire in late regular season and in the ALDS. But the odds are of course punishingly harsh at this point.

The Phillies have similarly pushed the Padres to the brink, though , as dan says, more through brute force offense. San Diego actually led off Game 4 with a 4-run top of the 1st, but the home team countered with 3 in the bottom, and tied it a bit later. The Padres once again went up, 6-4, on a Soto homer, but the Phils answered right back, scoring 4 off Sean Manaea, and prevailed 10-6. The teams are back at it this afternoon, with Zach Wheeler currently up 2-1 over Yu Darvish.

This postseason has thus weirdly featured the 2 best records in the AL facing off, with the better record seemingly set to prevail, and the two worst qualifying teams in the NL meeting, with the worst of the worst running away with it. The prospect of a Houston/Philadelphia World Series (a repeat of the 1980 NLCS, when the teams were in the same league) is certainly an interesting test of the anyone-can-win playoffs, since, on the surface, it's a colossal mismatch.

[danfrank]

I know that pitching often dominates in the postseason, but geez, it’s still impressive how stone cold the Yankees’ bats have gone, especially from such an offensive powerhouse. I know the Gerrit Cole doubters will have a field day with today’s game, but he could have pitched an absolute gem and still lost given the absolute lack of offensive support.

The team this postseason that has been most impressive offensively has been the Phillies, so perhaps the now-likely World Series matchup between the Astros, with their stellar pitching, and the slugging Phillies, won’t make for a bad series.

[Mister Tee]

A quick update:

The Yankees sit in an 0-2 hole after a game that couldn't have better illustrated that baseball is a game decided by inches -- or, using more up-to-date analytics parlance, bad luck relative to hit expectancy.

Both starters, Valdez and Severino, began well enough, and, in fact, pitched deep into the game, despite each having one rough inning. Severino's was the 3rd, where he hit a batter (on an 0-2 count), let another man on with a single, then, with 2 outs, gave up a home run to Bregman. Bregman's ball was hit a lazy 78-mph -- had an .040 hit expectancy -- but it was aimed right at the Crawford Boxes in left field, and gave Houston 3 runs. Everyone mocks Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field, but this Houston park is every bit as ridiculous.

The Yankees quickly answered back with 2 runs, thanks to a Judge single, a botched play on Stanton's grounder that put runners at 2nd and 3rd, then two grind-it-out at bats that drove the 2 runs home without leaving the infield.

Still, the Yankees sat at that 1-run deficit entering the 8th. Bader hit a single, and Judge drove a ball to deep right field. This one was well over 100-mph, and had, according to the stat guys, a .910 hit expectancy. Somehow (it's suggested the park's roof being closed was a factor), it stopped just shy of the wall, and Houston's right fielder made the catch.

That was the game. Houston got a pop fly 3 runs, NY was denied the go-ahead homer in a way no one at the park could believe, and the Yankee season is in jeopardy as the teams move on to NY. Two close games suggest evenly matched teams, but, for the moment, results are lopsided.

Meantime, the NL series resumed tonight in Philly. Kyle Schwarber led off the home half with a home run, and, when two more runners reached before starter Musgrove had recorded an out, it seemed it might be a Philly rout. A double-play and subsequent out shut down that prospect, and the Padres soon tied the game. The Phillies scored 2 more, the Padres countered with 1, the Phils added another, and the Phillie bullpen saw to it that held up for a 4-2 win. San Diego had a shot in the 9th -- leading off with a single, getting to 3-2 on the next batter -- but a questionable strike 3 call on Profar, ducking out of the way of a pitch, cut the rally cold. It was one of those plays where you could see why the batter was furious at the call, but also why the umpire made it.

So, the two teams are, for the moment, trading wins. I have no idea who will win, or honestly, who deserves to. The match-up continues tomorrow.

[danfrank]

… but also gets a Believe It or Not citation for the fact that Austin Nola (Aaron's brother) was a key part of the rally, knocking in the first run and scoring the second (tying) one. Might make for a somewhat awkward family Thanksgiving.

Just watching the Nola brothers’ parents during that at bat was extremely awkward. They both looked like deer in the headlights, not knowing how to react. To me it was a bit of poetic justice to see older brother Austin, who struggled for years to get into the big leagues, hit and score against his younger brother, who’s had a much easier time of it. I was glad to see the Padres win just to keep the series interesting.

[Mister Tee]

Apologies to Tee if you wanted to answer this.

I'm always happy when others pick up some of the load in this thread.

So...yesterday, a game in each series.

On the NL side, it looked for a bit like we might have a lopsided series, as the Phillies erupted for 4 runs in the second off Blake Snell. The Padres managed 2 home runs in the bottom of the inning, sparking some hope, but still carried a 4-2 deficit into the 5th against Aaron Nola. That the Padres staged their own 5 run rally in that inning was significant simply for the series -- now tied at 1-1 -- but also gets a Believe It or Not citation for the fact that Austin Nola (Aaron's brother) was a key part of the rally, knocking in the first run and scoring the second (tying) one. Might make for a somewhat awkward family Thanksgiving.

As for my guys...the game was viewed as something of a punt going in, Houston's ace Verlander facing the 4th choice Yankee starter Jameson Taillon. As it happened, Taillon pitched creditably (though he had a number of scary line-drive outs, one a spectacular diving catch by Aaron Judge), allowing just one run into the 5th, while Verlander was wobbly through the first 3 innings, though only surrendering one run of his own on a(nother) Bader homer. The official line is that The Sturdy Veteran Then Found Himself, but Yankee Universe saw it as more Verlander started getting a lot more marginal strike calls, enabling him to make it through 6 innings without further damage.

With the game tied, many fans thought Aaron Boone should go to his top relievers, to try to snatch an unexpected win, but Boone had clearly decided his bullpen needed a rest after the Cleveland marathon, and, absent a lead, he was going to go with his lesser options. This didn't turn out so well, as Clarke Schmidt gave up two quick home runs, and Frankie Montas -- just back from a long IL stint -- surrendered another, enough to outpoint Rizzo's solo shot in the 8th. Still, the Yankees brought the go-ahead run to the plate in the 8th, in the person of Matt Carpenter, but Carpenter's long layoff appears to have undone his summertime swing, as he struck out for the 6th consecutive time, and ended the game's last hope for NY.

A lot of people are making a big deal that the Yankees struck out 17 times, and the Astros only twice, as if that were the difference in the game, but I don't see that as dispositive. The two teams had exactly the same batting line with runners-in-scoring-position -- 0-4, 7 left on base; how much does it matter whether those at bats were strikeouts or weak grounders? (Or even blistered line drives -- Judge's great catch on Pena had the exact same impact as a strikeout would have.) I look at it this way: change one at bat -- Carpenter in either the 3rd or 8th -- from a strikeout to a home run, and the team would have struck out 16 times, but the Yankees would have won 5-4. Is that still bad? The Astros won because they hit more home runs; the rest is just talking points.

Many fans I know are doom-criers, and have already given up, which is ridiculous in a long series. Every single game these teams have played together in 2022 have been decided by 1-3 runs, which is to say, close enough for either to prevail. I'm not going to get bent out of shape from losing what was supposed to be a pitching mismatch, after a draining previous series and a late night arrival in Texas. There's a long way to go.

[danfrank]

Apologies to Tee if you wanted to answer this, but, yes, Okri, giving up 6 hits in two innings is a lot in any game. The likelihood of scoring several runs in this scenario is very high, so the fact that Severino only gave up two runs is what is known as “limiting the damage.” Those two runs made the difference, though, in a one-run loss. One of the most important statistics for a pitcher is the WHIP, which stands for “walks and hits per inning pitched.” A good WHIP is in the neighborhood of 1.0. Severino’s WHIP for those first two innings was 3.0, which is terrible. This is a bit misleading, though, as hits often come in bunches. Severino settled down and gave up many fewer hits after those first two innings, as good pitchers often do.

[Okri]

I inferred from your comment that six hits in two innings is a lot. That strikes (heh) me as being quite low but then I realized that I just have no idea what a lot of hits would be. Was that more a comment on the specific game as opposed to general?

[Mister Tee]

If you weren't watching the game, the Yankees seemed fated to lose early, as Luis Severino was giving up hit after hit -- 6 in the first 2 innings -- and only surviving (limiting it to 2 runs) by the skin of his teeth.
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What's normal at this level?

Didn't mean to ignore this; just got busy, and wasn't entirely certain what your question was.

If you're asking, what's the normal expectation of runs scoring in that early-game/lots of hits situation...I don't have the Baseball Prospectus scale to answer definitively. But I'll say that, given the Guardians, in each of the first two innings, managed to score a run and put two additional men on base with only 1 out, they could have reasonably expected to score another 1, minimum, especially since Severino was showing few signs of having command.

And if Cleveland had more than 1 or 2 players with serious home run power, they could have put the game out of reach right there -- but the fact that the Guardians don't have that power while the Yankees do was pretty much the story of the series. (The Yankees scored 20 runs in the series, 16 of them on balls that left the park. Cleveland scored 14 overall, but a mere 3 from home runs.)

If I've missed the point of your question, let me know, and I'll try to respond better.

[Mister Tee]

I’m guessing that was worth enduring the torturous delay. Congrats on the advancement!

Stanton hitting his 3-run shot in the first inning did a lot to dissolve the 40-hours-of-accumulated-tension.

And it may be the postponement was a boon to the home team, as Nestor Cortes -- replacing Taillon in the starter role -- was stellar. Francona might equally have switched pitchers, bringing Bieber back on 3 days rest, but apparently Bieber's tenuous physical condition (he'd only returned from shoulder-related IL in late September) made that less-than-desirable, so the Guardians stuck with Civale -- who'd been battered by the Yankees twice in the regular season, and didn't get out of the first inning tonight. Judge followed Stanton with a home run of his own (the two have hit balls out in the same game 30 times, and the Yankees have won 28 of those -- the exceptions being, weirdly, the Field of Dreams Game, and the night Judge hit number 62). That was plenty for Nestor and the relievers who followed him (after the 9th inning meltdown Saturday night, Yankee relievers locked it down, giving up zero runs in the final two games), and the game ended 5-1.

There was a relatively brief clubhouse celebration -- more champagne poured over heads than ingested, because the ALCS begins tomorrow, and no one wants to go into it hungover. More about that series, perhaps, tomorrow. It feels a bit of a cheat that fans don't get to savor this win for very long, but weather and TV schedules run the game.

Meantime, the NLCS got underway tonight, and I confess I watched close to none of it (preferring to stick with my post-game coverage). It doesn't seem like I missed much, as the teams together accounted for only 4 hits. Two of them were home runs by Harper and Schwarber (the latter an impressive 488 feet), which gave the Phillies the win on San Diego turf, and a 1-0 lead in the Series.

San Diego, by the way, came in with home field advantage by virtue of its 89 wins topping the Phillies' 87. Whichever AL team gets to the Series will have home field by a massive margin.

[Okri]

If you weren't watching the game, the Yankees seemed fated to lose early, as Luis Severino was giving up hit after hit -- 6 in the first 2 innings -- and only surviving (limiting it to 2 runs) by the skin of his teeth.
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What's normal at this level?

[danfrank]

I’m guessing that was worth enduring the torturous delay. Congrats on the advancement!

[danfrank]

Well, it’s at least one more day that they’re still in contention!

[Mister Tee]

Can I tell you how much I enjoy having to wait another day?

[Mister Tee]

They live!

...for a few more hours, anyway.

Facing match point all night, the Yankees got off to a quick 3-0 lead, adding another run a few innings later. Gerrit Cole bent (his traditional solo home run; another Bermuda Triangle bloop that drive in a run) but kept the lead through 7, and the bullpen, unlike on Saturday, held it there. So, back to the Bronx tonight for a decisive Game 5. (Weather permitting.) Agony, but with slightly less pessimism than 24 hours earlier.

[Sonic Youth]

There's always New York football, Tee. Go Giants!