2022 Predictions from Variety Awards Circuit

[Big Magilla]

Unlike 1955 when studios had the final say, actors' wishes are more acceded to. However, it's the voters that have the final say.

If awards bodies insist on awarding her in support, then that's the category she'll most likely be Oscar nominated in. It's more fun when we're kept guessing until the end who will win. Having one or two acting frontrunners win all the way through awards season becomes boring. Having three or four frontrunners takes away from the suspense and lessens any impact the Oscars may still have.

[Reza]

Michelle Williams will be campaigning for lead for The Fabelmans.

Shades of Roz Russell and Picnic?

[Sabin]

Seems like a mistake, but I haven't seen it. What do I know?

[Big Magilla]

Interesting turn of events.

Variety moved her up to lead in place of Viola Davis and gave her supporting actress slot to Judith Ivey, making it three actresses from Women Talking in that category.

They also took Laura Dern out of supporting actress and replaced her with Everything Everywhere All at Once's Stephanie Hsu.

[Greg]

Michelle Williams will be campaigning for lead for The Fabelmans.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
The word “mess” is coming up frequently from those who have seen Amsterdam. It might get some decent reviews but it will definitely get some pans, and you can place bets that it will not be a major awards contender.

Yup, that's what I'm seeing. I didn't have a great feeling after the trailer.

[danfrank]

Is it weird that Amsterdam bypassed the festival circuit completely? That can't be a good sign. I'm a big fan of David O. Russell's in general but the film gives off the feel of a lark. Or maybe they're just trying to keep Russell away from the public spotlight.

The word “mess” is coming up frequently from those who have seen Amsterdam. It might get some decent reviews but it will definitely get some pans, and you can place bets that it will not be a major awards contender.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Hugh Jackman may have been the frontrunner for Best Actor prior to the festivals, but given the mixed reviews for The Son, I don't see it. Brendan Fraser has to be in that position now. On the other hand, I can see Michelle Yeoh winning over presumed frontrunner Cate Blanchett.

I think Brendan Fraser is absolutely the frontrunner. I think Austin Butler might be the underdog of the race. He's probably going to win the Golden Globe, and there's a world where he could win the SAG as well. Best Actor seems to be a pretty sparse field of potential winners at this point IMO.

Best Actress is the opposite. I have no idea how TÁR is going to perform. It seems like an odd film. At this point, I don't see any reason not to consider Cate Blanchett the frontrunner for the time being, but I agree with you on Michelle Yeoh. I could see Yeoh winning the SAG.

Big Magilla wrote
Best Picture is very weak this year but unless a last-minute surprise comes along, The Fabelmans and Women Talking do seem to have the best shots at being popular winners while TÁR will probably have the edge with early critics' awards.

I think Triangle of Sadness could do well with critics. It's being distributed by Neon and they know how to carve out a good campaign.

[Big Magilla]

I think these are solid predictions, but I am not in agreement with all the predicted winners.

Hugh Jackman may have been the frontrunner for Best Actor prior to the festivals, but given the mixed reviews for The Son, I don't see it. Brendan Fraser has to be in that position now. On the other hand, I can see Michelle Yeoh winning over presumed frontrunner Cate Blanchett.

Best Picture is very weak this year but unless a last-minute surprise comes along, The Fabelmans and Women Talking do seem to have the best shots at being popular winners while TÁR will probably have the edge with early critics' awards.

Amsterdam, Babylon, and She Said could still end up as finalists, but I don't think any of the three is a potential winner. Avatar: The Way of Water (potentially), Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick may be popular favorites, but I don't see any of them with much of a chance of winning.

[Sabin]

There are a few areas where (sight unseen) I disagree but it's hard to deny that this year's Oscar race has really come into reasonably clear view and it's not even October. I wrote up my own set of predictions the other day and they looked fairly similar.

There really are just four question marks at this point:
*Amsterdam
*Babylon
*Avatar: The Way of Water
*She Said

I was surprised to see Avatar: The Way of Water on the list but why should I be? James Cameron's track record at this point is remarkable. It's also so intermittent that it feels non-existent. I have a hard time imagining people care about a sequel to a film from thirteen years ago... which is an ironic thing to say when it's bullish on a sequel to a film from 35+ years ago.

I have no idea about She Said. The trailer to me felt like it evoked Spotlight but I couldn't shake the feeling that it possibly misunderstood what made Spotlight so appreciated. Spotlight took something profoundly visceral (a Church molestation scandal) and turned it entirely into a triumph of journalistic process. Except for one or two outbursts, it felt dryer than the white paint on the walls. I don't quite get that sense from the trailer for She Said but we'll see how it lands.

Is it weird that Amsterdam bypassed the festival circuit completely? That can't be a good sign. I'm a big fan of David O. Russell's in general but the film gives off the feel of a lark. Or maybe they're just trying to keep Russell away from the public spotlight. Either way, how do you manage an Oscar campaign that way. My guess is it's a lark.

Finally, there's Babylon. I was most surprised to see this one left off the list but maybe I shouldn't be. We're now five years past La La Land/Moonlight. Green Book has become the new Oscar travesty pejorative. But Chazelle's previous foray into the Oscar race was an ambitious box office failure that voters acted like didn't exist. I wonder if his interests are out of touch with current mood. But put aside the potential tangent that line of thinking leads to, Babylon is about Hollywood, right? Oscar voters love films about itself. Except for the one they didn't... the one Damien Chazelle made.

I'm going to couch in the caveat that had the Academy not implemented ranked choice voting, La La Land quite possibly would have won. I'm certainly excited about Babylon but as I've written elsewhere a three hour period film doesn't sound like a Best Picture winner these days. It sounds like something that wins Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

[Big Magilla]

The first in all categories except short subjects with winner predictions:

Best Picture

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
James Cameron, Jon Landau
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
“Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
Pippa Harris, Sam Mendes
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Dan Kwan, Mike Larocca, Anthony Russo, Joe Russo, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg
“The Son” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Iain Canning, Joanna Laurie, Emile Sherman, Christophe Spadone, Florian Zeller
“TÁR” (Focus Features)
Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand, Brad Pitt

Best Director

Todd Field
“TÁR” (Focus Features)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Martin McDonagh
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Sarah Polley
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Steven Spielberg
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Best Actor

Austin Butler
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Colin Farrell
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Brendan Fraser
“The Whale” (A24)
Hugh Jackman
“The Son” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Bill Nighy
“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett
“TÁR” (Focus Features)
Olivia Colman
“Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
Viola Davis
“The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler
“Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Woody Harrelson
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
Judd Hirsch
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Ke Huy Quan
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Ben Whishaw
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Laura Dern
“The Son” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Claire Foy
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Nina Hoss
“TÁR” (Focus Features)
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Best Original Screenplay

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
“TÁR” (Focus Features)
Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
Ruben Östlund

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix)
Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson)
“The Son” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Florian Zeller (based on “Le Fils” by Florian Zeller)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)
“The Whale” (A24)
Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Sarah Polley (based on the book by Miriam Toews)

Best Animated Feature

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)
Dean Fleischer-Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Terry Leonard, Paul Mezey
“Strange World” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Roy Conli, Don Hall
“Turning Red” (Pixar)
Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins
“Wendell & Wild” (Netflix)
Henry Selick, Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele

See full list here:
https://variety.com/lists/2023-oscars-p ... ture-2023/