Mister Tee wrote
I'd certainly say Ronan is the most likely of the four-nominations group to win (though I'd kind of bet on Margot Robbie getting there before her). I wouldn't rule out Michelle Williams, though -- her Emmy win playing Gwen Verdon was pretty impressive, and she works pretty steadily, with a lot of years ahead of her.
I'd say Margot Robbie is probably next in line before them because she has a propensity for performances that are a bit more outre. It's not hard to imagine her winning Best Actress for I, Tonya in a different year. I honestly find it hard to believe conventional wisdom is that she was fourth in the running that year.
My memory must be failing me. I thought that Saoirse Ronan had surpassed Jennifer Lawrence's record of youngest actor to receive four nominations but Lawrence beat her by four months. Ronan will almost certainly become the youngest to receive five. It's hard to imagine someone hitting a record like that and not winning at some point in her career, although I wonder how much longer she can perform the coming-of-age arcs that she's so adeptly performed in her three Best Actress-nominated performance. I wonder what comes next for her.
I could be wrong but I have a hunch Michelle Williams will win for supporting actress some year where the field just isn't that competitive. Williams is one of those actors who is just so reliably excellent that I fear she is taken for granted. Part of that is how constantly she works, but also part of it is how she tends to gravitate towards domestic roles. With the exception of her turn as Marilyn Monroe, she tends to gravitate towards playing neglected S.O.'s with children. She has a big year with a new Kelly Reichardt (although I don't get the sense that Reichardt is the Academy's flavor) as well as basically playing Steven Spielberg's mother in The Fabelmans, which on paper seems very much in William's wheelhouse.
Quick note: I've met Michelle Williams once. She was hanging out with Busy Phillips. She couldn't have been nicer. She is 5'4 but seems so tiny in person. She's like a sprite.
Okri wrote:There's no greater case of that than Michelle Pfeiffer. She not only had the three nominations in five years, but was perceived to have just missed additional citations for Frankie and Johnny in 1991 and The Age of Innocence in 1993. Her set of movies that followed -- Up Close and Personal, A Thousand Acres (from a Pulitzer book) and The Deep End of the Ocean (a huge best-selling book) -- seemed sure to put her onstage eventually. Instead, she hasn't been heard from in 3 decades...which is amazing, for someone that talented.
I don't think she should be underestimated. She did get a slight buzz and a Golden Globe nod for French Exit (2020) recently. She could well get into the winner's circle.
Sigourney Wraver and Debra Winger both seemed well on their way to a win way back when but things pretty much fizzled out for both along the way. I still think they could make a late age comeback like the ones you mention above.
Okri wrote:Of the ladies Tee mentions, I only think Ronan is sorta nailed on for a win one day.
I'd certainly say Ronan is the most likely of the four-nominations group to win (though I'd kind of bet on Margot Robbie getting there before her). I wouldn't rule out Michelle Williams, though -- her Emmy win playing Gwen Verdon was pretty impressive, and she works pretty steadily, with a lot of years ahead of her.
It's a funny thing about some of the older names: the tendency is to think they age past being prime Oscar candidates. When I was first watching the show (60s, 70s), it was mostly currently-hot people winning. But the 80s came along, and Henry Fonda, Shirley MacLaine and Geraldine Page won trophies when they seemed totally past their primes. (Paul Newman was marginally in that category, as well, though I don't think he ever seemed as off the boards as the others.) And the decade closed with Jessica Tandy, who'd never been nominated, but was also from that "your parents' generation" grouping. So, Bening may not be as past-it as she seems.
The obverse can also be true: People can seem so hot you're sure they'll win soon, but they just fizzle. I remember telling a friend, shortly before the 1998 Oscars, that, while I wasn't predicting either Edward Norton or Emily Watson to win that year, I'd definitely bet on either to win shortly after -- each had followed up a huge 1996 breakthrough with a second nomination, and seemed well on the way. But Norton troublemaker-ed himself out of prime work, and Watson, after Angela's Ashes didn't come through, seemed to fade completely.
There's no greater case of that than Michelle Pfeiffer. She not only had the three nominations in five years, but was perceived to have just missed additional citations for Frankie and Johnny in 1991 and The Age of Innocence in 1993. Her set of movies that followed -- Up Close and Personal, A Thousand Acres (from a Pulitzer book) and The Deep End of the Ocean (a huge best-selling book) -- seemed sure to put her onstage eventually. Instead, she hasn't been heard from in 3 decades...which is amazing, for someone that talented.
Glenn Close's long list of failure somewhat disguises the fact that we have a far more prominent and extensive list of female actors overdue for recognition. Amy Adams is right there with 6 (including as recently as 3 years ago), and there's a stellar group with 4 -- Annette Bening, Michelle Williams, Saoirse Ronan -- any of whom could come along and nab the prize any time. (Not to mention some aging 3's -- Pfeiffer, Weaver, Winger -- on whom I refuse to give up.) For a long part of my early Oscar-watching years, it was the men who waited a long time for prize recognition. But, in recent decades, it's been a far more likely scenario for the women.
It’s interesting to ponder. At first, I assumed it was because actresses are accumulating nominations faster than actors. Intuitively, that feels true, but objectively I’m not sure how significant the difference is. Something like 131 actors have received nominations this century vs 125 actresses.
I also presume that actresses tend to get nominations earlier in their careers then actors. So a performer like Colin Firth, Christian Baale or Jamie Foxx wins on an earlier nomination, but they have careers sometimes stretching back three decades (a corollary to that might be Reese Witherspoon – she won on her first nomination, but she’d been acting for 15 years by that point). It’s interesting, the reverse (actors who got nominations very early in their careers – Matt Damon, Edward Norton) aren’t thought of a being due at all (Damon of course has a screenwriting Oscar, so that certainly is a balm).
I also wonder to what extent, if any, leading vs supporting has anything to do with it. Close’s credits are evenly split, nominations wise, between lead and support, as were Williams’ nominations. Adam’s line-up is majority supporting and she’s been overlooked when she’s in leading contention (Big Eyes, Enchanted, Arrival) more often than not. Looking at the list of 3+/no wins, it’s actually hard for me to envision Michelle Williams winning too (ditto Dafoe/Harris, the majority-supporting men). Of the ladies Tee mentions, I only think Ronan is sorta nailed on for a win one day.
I think the number of categories in which overdue-ness can make a difference is way more limited than you seem to feel by listing so many people. To deal with the most prominent, in the order you list them:
I doubt 1 in 100 even knows who's listed as producer on best picture winners, so "sentiment" for Kathleen Kennedy is, I'd guess, close to zero. Her best hope is to be associated with another Spielberg best picture victor -- though I see, even there, her connection to him is hit and miss: she's not attached to The Fabelmans; in fact, though she was matched up to Lincoln and Munich, she's mostly been along for the ride on his more commercial films than his serious ones -- she somehow missed out on Schindler's List by being cited as Executive Producer. The arcana of all this is why I think barely any votes turn on which producers are connected to which films. She might win someday, if Spielberg lets her come along on a non-fantasy film. But, most likely, the Thalberg will have to suffice.
There's always the possibility Ed Harris or Willem Dafoe luck into a supporting role in a big enough film that an Oscar results. But, realistically, Harris' prime time is two decades past, and Dafoe is just viewed as a bit too weird to win on sentiment. Bradley Cooper is quite clearly the one of your four-time losers enough in the current game for us to envision as an ultimate winner. Right now, he seems a good bet -- but, then, so did Ed Harris after his 4 nods in 8 years. Windows can close without warning.
Glenn Close's long list of failure somewhat disguises the fact that we have a far more prominent and extensive list of female actors overdue for recognition. Amy Adams is right there with 6 (including as recently as 3 years ago), and there's a stellar group with 4 -- Annette Bening, Michelle Williams, Saoirse Ronan -- any of whom could come along and nab the prize any time. (Not to mention some aging 3's -- Pfeiffer, Weaver, Winger -- on whom I refuse to give up.) For a long part of my early Oscar-watching years, it was the men who waited a long time for prize recognition. But, in recent decades, it's been a far more likely scenario for the women.
Whatever Peter Weir's status, I think he's quite unlikely to ever win a directing Oscar (none of his 4 nominations brought him even close to the win discussion). He's certainly less apt to score a victory than those right behind him in the 3-nods-and-counting group: PTA, David Fincher and David O. Russell. (Payne and Tarantino are also in this cadre. but I think they're viewed as taken-care-of via their multiple screenplay wins.)
In regard to screenplay: I think PTA is more likely to get an across-the-board win than mere screenplay (it's why I half-rooted against him this year). As for Mike Leigh -- he's nearly 80, and has slowed down a bit (at least by his standard). Plus his creations have always seemed the sort with more appeal to a niche in the writers' branch than the broad swath of Oscar voters. So, my bet would be against his ever winning.
I don't think many of the design/tech nominees get a ton of benefit from people thinking they're due, but a few comments on them:
I think you can make the case Roger Deakins' Blade Runner 2049 win was somewhat enabled by his personal story -- in a close battle with best picture winner The Shape of Water, knowing Deakins had labored so long without a win may have tipped a close decision (one that went the other way in production design). But I think that's very much the exception, as we've seen many losses over the years -- including by Deakins, plus Lubezki -- when this principle didn't apply. Meaning Deschanel or (especially) Delbonnel may win won day. but they'd need to be in a vehicle that was a logical winner regardless, with their veteran status just offering a tiny tweak toward the win.
Because look at, for example, Thomas Newman -- overdue by anyone's standard, unlucky enough to lose to a fluke winner when he was attached to the best picture winner in 1999, finally once again running with a film that came in favored to win best picture in 2019...whereupon he lost to what became a more immediately pressing priority ("we must have a winning female composer!"). Newman is still younger than I, god bless him, and he continues to work, but he'll need to be attached to a hot best film prospect to have much chance again. (I understand that Ennio Morricone exists as counter-example, but Morricone had, almost half a century before winning, written a theme more instantly familiar than anything Newman has ever turned out, and was relentlessly promoted by Tarantino throughout his publicity for The Hateful Eight. I don't see anyone willing to do that for the Oscar-less Newman.)
His finally-Oscared cousin, Randy, might serve as the best hope for always-a-bridesmaid Diane Warren. Warren has certainly built up a ton of "do you know she's never won?" publicity, but she's still going to continue to lose if she keeps churning out tunes attached to no-name movies. Randy finally capitalized on his built-up sympathy when he had a (mediocre) song in a huge hit movie, against an extremely tepid field of competitors. (Warren had the latter in 2015, but not the former, and that's what led to her unexpected loss.) Really, her best hope is to write a song for a movie people care about.
God -- all that angst devoted to the Kevin O'Connell guy; why didn't we take care of this Greg Russell at the same time? (They always used to be nominated together.) O'Connell finally won not because he was so due, but because Hacksaw Ridge was the kind of movie voters went for in sound and editing. A similar route is Russell's only hope.
I have absolutely no thoughts on the other categories.
For Actress, I reckon Amy Adams should very soon win her Oscar. Bradley Cooper will win, but who knows in what category. A director I’d love to see get his due is David Fincher, which will hopefully happen soon.
And I’m still holding out hope that Ridley Scott gets his Oscar also.
I thought this would be a great idea for a thread. So I thought I'd make a thread for people who currently have the most nominations in most categories without a win BUT who are still alive and are still working so we can speculate and monitor when they'll finally win their Oscar.
BEST PICTURE: Kathleen Kennedy - 8 nominations (won the Thalberg)
BEST DIRECTOR: Peter Weir - 4 nominations* (hasn't made a film in 10 years but I don't think he officially retired, correct me if I'm wrong.)
BEST ACTING (male): (three-way tie) Ed Harris, Willem Dafoe and Bradley Cooper - 4 nominations. (Cooper has additional producing and writing nominations also without wins.)
BEST ACTING (female): Glenn Close - 8 nominations
BEST SCREENPLAY (both Original & Adapted): (tie) Mike Leigh and Paul Thomas Anderson - 5 nominations.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: (tie) Caleb Deschanel and Bruno Delbonnel - 6 nominations.
BEST FILM EDITING: (tie) Hank Corwin and Jay Cassidy - 3 nominations
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: (tie) Sarah Greenwood and Nathan Crowley - 6 nominations
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Jacqueline West - 4 nominations
BEST SONG: Diane Warren - 13 nominations
BEST SCORE: Thomas Newman - 14 nominations
BEST SOUND: Greg P. Russell - 16 nominations
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dan Sudick - 12 nominations
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Edouard F. Henriques, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr - 3 nominations
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Israel - 10 nominations
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: (five-way tie) Ron Clements, Travis Knight, Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders and Tomm Moore - 3 nominations
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Wim Wenders - 3 nominations.
