Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

I still think this is probably Chastain. Could be wrong, and the playbook is different now, but I can't remember the last time a not-certain nominee like Cruz won a lead award. It's a weird year, and if something wildly against the grain happens this would be the year for it to happen, but I don't see a lot of historical precedent for Cruz winning this. I do think it's close though.

Guys, the race is over. Nicole Kidman won the Golden Globe. She is our front-runner... for last place.

I've written plenty about this race elsewhere. The internationalization of the Academy is a very real thing. I suspect Cruz has their vote. And I have no doubt that anyone who sees Parallel Mothers will come away thinking that it's as good a showcase for an actress as any this year. I say this as someone who isn't a fan of the film. And apparently, it's been playing very strongly at a couple of Los Angeles theaters for three months now.

But I'm sticking with Jessica Chastain. I think the actors will back her. She's perceived as having paid her dues with two previous nominations (feels like more) as well as garnering plenty of positive attention for standing with the off-camera artists -- and it feels genuine. Heck, she knows she wouldn't be able to win her Oscar for the Best Actress if it wasn't for the makeup artists. It's also a real change of pace for her.

From Kyle Buchannan, who was at the Governor's ball

"Talking to Oscar folks at the Governors Awards and the buzz for a Penelope Cruz best-actress win is very real…"

Chastain would be a very happy choice, but I can't quite make myself accept the notion that a race that's been so volatile all season long would suddenly settle into being predictable (or as predictable as possible, given the context). The sudden coalescing around her is based entirely on SAG (Broadcasters being irrelevant: they chose Chastain because she was flavor of the week when they voted -- in January, they'd have picked Stewart; in February, Kidman). And SAG, may we remember, was pitifully off on all top categories last year.

What makes the category particularly insane is the breadth of possibility. Most surprises/upsets we've had in the last half-dozen years were from clear close runners-up candidates -- Rylance, Colman, Bong Joon-ho, Hopkins. They (along with, say, Affleck/Denzel in '16) were in binary races. It's extremely rare these days to have a competition with multiple possible outcomes. Last year's best actress was one such, and McDormand won it despite running third (behind Mulligan/Davis) in most prognostication. And, on a lower echelon, there was the wonderful visual effects race of 2015, where no one could decide among best picture contenders Fury Road, The Revenant and The Martian, plus the box-office wonder of The Force Awakens -- and voters startled us by choosing Ex Machina. Mark Harris described it that night as the biggest upset in years, and he was right -- something not even on most people's radar hardly ever wins.

But that's what I think is possible in a race this divided. Many people hate Spencer, but Stewart has a devoted core vote, and in a year where 21% might do it, that could be enough. I know all kinds of people in the business who couldn't stand The Lost Daughter, but they all continue to respect Colman, and the film has done (to me) surprisingly well along the way, considering this level of opposition. Cruz has seemingly risen from the dead twice this season -- first to win LA/National Society, after bombing at the others critics, then to get the nomination, after missing the BAFTA long-list -- and she has the fact of increased international participation. Chastain rallied from her film being considered a box-office bomb to take the SAG. Even Kidman -- who I see as running fifth -- has the chance of catching a wave on Lucy's home turf.

For my own bet, I'm wavering between Cruz and Chastain, but even that doesn't seem to hedge enough. I truly think this category remains the greatest potential dynamite source for the evening.

I’ve thought it would be Chastain ever since I saw an early preview of The Eyes of Tammy Faye and still think she will prevail. But, as others have mentioned, this category will be a nail-biter until the envelope opens.

It's worth remembering that when Rita Moreno won her Oscar for West Side Story sixty years ago the lead actress winner was for a non-English performance in a film centered on Two Women that was not nominated in the Foreign category. We know Ariana DeBose is about to win her Oscar for West Side Story and it would be an interesting parallelism if Penélope Cruz ended up winning in such a similar scenario, sixty years later. Anyway I'm predicting her, but also would be very happy with Colman or Chastain (who gets my vote) prevailing.

I see this as a battle of the C's - Chastain, Colman, and Cruz and would be happy to see any one of them win.

Chastain, after a shaky start, seems to have the momentum but Colman and Cruz also have strong support. Kidman has had no major support other than that of the Globes. Stewart's film as well as her performance are off-putting to more people than those that love it.

Who should win: Chastain, Colman, or Cruz. Who will win: Chastain.

The nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

This is the second year in a row that Best Actress has become a rather contentious category. One could feasibly argue for any of these women winning. The safe bet seems to be Jessica Chastain as she won both the SAG and the Critics Choice. She also ticks all the boxes of a potential: respected actress on her third nomination with no prior wins and giving a very showy performance as a real-life person.However, the anonymous ballots that have been popping up lately shows that Penelope Cruz has been winning a lot of votes. Granted, these are tiny, tiny samplings of voters but for her to be surprisingly well among that shows that she is not to be underestimated, lack of major precursor nominations be damned. Also not to be underestimated are the love and respect for Olivia Colman who was strong enough to pull in Jessie Buckley. Nicole Kidman won the Globe and is also playing a famous person. Spencer may be divisive but those who love it REALLY love it so if enough of them are in the Academy, Kristen Stewart also has a chance. I'm leaning Chastain but it's a toss-up.