Musings in lieu of predictions
As we discuss the best picture race, I want to cast my eyes back over the expansion period and point out just how unusual we’ve had it with our best picture races. If you were to use the old pejorative “Oscar Bait,” you can only really use that to describe four of 12 films: The King’s Speech, Argo, Spotlight and Green Book. I know some would argue with me about Spotlight and I know others would proffer 12 Years a Slave or The Artist or Birdman, but I would assert that if we broaden Oscar bait to a definition that encompasses those movies, the word loses all meaning. Of course, if it’s something we don’t like we’ll throw Oscar bait at it like nobody’s business.
This year it’s particularly frustrating, of course, with the board’s decision to relegate 1/3 of the categories. We live in a time where AMPAS’ taste has actually broadened a bit after some contraction (for film anyway. Biopics still reign in performance). We also live in a time where the public’s taste (as represented by the box office) has contracted a staggering amount. I often go back and look at old box office charts and to see some of the results is just startling. On Golden Pond was the second biggest hit of 1981!!!! It outgrossed Superman II!!!! The Color Purple and Out of Africa were fourth and fifth in 1985! It’s so weird watching people just pretend that AMPAS is the problem here and that they should chase an audience that has stated they like basically one type of thing.
- First Best Picture winner since Ordinary People to win without a single below the line nomination (40+years).
One of the more common concerns raised about the Oscars in this new expansion era is that fewer films are getting nominated across the board. And it’s technically true by about two films (comparing 1997-2008 vs 2009-2020), but what’s more interesting is that there are fewer movies being nominated in the acting/writing categories, but more films being nominated in below the line categories. This isn’t that startling when you think about it. The disappearance of the mid budget movie from Hollywood and the rise of Marvel means that you’ll see more stratification. Meanwhile, there always seems to be a block that foreign films and smaller films just can’t breach even if they have a successful day above the title. I’m thinking something like Beasts of the Southern Wild just not being a possibility in score in 2012 despite being wall-to-wall music (and terrific music at that. One of the decade’s best scores).
Anyway, that hasn’t reflected itself in what films can win best picture, but we have seen a drop in the “most oscared” film. In the dozen years up to the expansion, we saw two films win 11 Oscars (Titanic, Return of the King), one win 8 and one win seven. Since then, the peak has been seven and that’s only occurred once. Now, 11 wins is the record, so you wouldn’t expect it to be that frequent, but if you were to look at the 1985-1996 span, you have five films scoring 7 wins or more.
Anyway, I do think that’s why that record anonymous posted could have less bearing this year (and going forward).
The Power of the Dog felt like the clear frontrunner, but I doubted it would win early on in the race. It was so muted; the catharsis lacking. It was only the underperformance of West Side Story, Belfast and Nightmare Alley (critical/box office) that really pushed me to that movie. In a “there’s nothing else” mode. I feel bad for the Spielberg and del Toro, truth be told. I really enjoyed both – I think WSS is as good as the original and if I don’t feel quite like that about Nightmare Alley, I still had a great time. That both underwhelmed at the box office (or flat out cratered) was disheartening. Neither had the critical enthusiasm to make the final push even if they hadn’t done as poorly, I suppose. But it would’ve made the race much more interesting.
I never thought Dune was in the best picture race to actually win. It missing director for such a director’s film really just was the proof. It feels so clearly ½ a movie that it would be hard for it to get enthusiasm. Now, if Villeneuve sticks the landing, we could be talking. But not this year.
King Richard and Belfast underperforming as they did… it didn’t really make an impact in my perception. How is it fair to criticize crowdpleasers for failing to draw a crowd when we’re told crowds are dangerous? Honestly, my initial response to Belfast feels generous for how irritated I feel about the film now (the dangers of Oscar season). King Richard I at least saw further into the race. I suspect that both their publicity campaigns are wondering exactly how they’ve been usurped by CODA and I worry future campaigners will take the more disheartening lessons, by c’est la vie.
I was a longer holdout about Drive My Car than most. I really thought that the split between the critics and the Oscar Industrial Complex had gotten too wide. I thought a three-hour Murakami adaptation would be too esoteric. I suspect if I’d seen the film earlier I would’ve been less down on it’s chances, but whatever. I’m happy to have been wrong. That said, I think we’d all agree that a win would be shocking. It’s an extraordinary film and maybe the one I’m most looking forward to revisiting.
Or maybe that would be Don’t Look Up (which I’ve already seen twice). Another film that I saw a little late and had already understood The Discourse surrounding the film. It’s hard to predict the future and even harder to see past my own biases, but there are few works of art that have captured just how sheerly exhausting and enraging this past has been to me. That final dinner sequence guts me in a way I can’t articulate. I suspect it will age very well.
I want to revisit Licorice Pizza, but I have to admit I’m rather nonplussed by it. I wonder if it might have had more of a presence this race if critics didn’t go hogwild over Drive My Car, but I genuinely think not. I actually preferred Inherent Vice, if I’m being honest. Side note, if Anderson loses best screenplay (and director), he’ll be 0 for 8 in writing/directing categories. Does any writer/director have a bigger shutout record for those categories?
So back to Power of the Dog. It hit 12 nominations when Plemons and sound were longshots (though I recall mentioning that Netflix screwed up whereas Focus Features did a terrific job and would get double nominations for Belfast, so….). Acting + writing + directing usually means best picture and the film was competitive in all three (4 of thirty films have won those three awards and failed to win best picture – The Pianist and Traffic most recently). But it’s faltered. Kotsur and Smith emerged against Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee to take stronger leads. Screenplay all of a sudden became a contest. Only Campion remains comfortably in front. And now that lack of catharsis and muted feeling has come back. I’ve only seen it the once, but I don’t see universal acclaim anymore. I hear “that’s it?” about it more frequently.
That stated, “that’s it” could describe CODA perfectly. If I slightly prefer it to Belfast and King Richard, they are still clearly my bottom three nominees. One interesting idea gets shunted aside for a paint-by-numbers experience. But there is a sense of discovery surrounding it, despite that huge buy from Sundance and the powers behind it. It spent the majority of the fall season feeling underseen, but that seems to have helped people have strong feelings towards the movie when it does get seen. Now, I think it, like the other two crowdpleasers, are missed opportunities. Each contains seeds of a good/great film, but that’s not what I saw. CODA won’t be the worst winner – Green Book and Crash are really deplorable movies – but it’s not far from that.