You can go back to the turn of the millennium, really. Only 2004 and 2008 were even truly competitive (maybe 2005, if you want to stretch it); the rest were favorites coming home. Over the same period, supporting actor had competitive races in 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2012, with clear upsets in 2006 and 2015.Sabin wrote:I think one could make the argument that the category of Best Supporting Actress has largely been the most predictable over the last decade+. All of the largely agreed-upon frontrunners pulled off their wins. You deserve credit for not overthinking the forecast and going with Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, or Rachel Weisz for The Favourite as some of us did.Greg wrote
For whatever reason, Supporting Actress is the one category where I have performed by far the best in predictions over the last decade+.
This was especially surprising because, for the decade preceding, supporting actress had been the wild ride category: Tomei, Paquin, Binoche and Harden were jaw-dropping upsets, and several other years were way less certain than recent ones.
Actually, as I think over it, we've probably had more genuine surprise or competition in the leading categories this past decade than in support: Streep, Colman and Hopkins being significant upsets, Dujardin, Lawrence, Affleck, and McDormand prevailing in hard-fought contests.
