We don't really have any precursor to tell us where this award is going to go. The closest indicator we have is the BAFTA and I guess the Golden Globes as tastemakers. This year, they both agree on Dune. The last time they agreed on a movie and it lost was John Williams for Memoirs of a Geisha when the Academy gave it to the last gay cowboy movie. So, there's precedent for The Power of the Dog winning, right? I'm not sure. I certainly wasn't positive that Gustavo Santaolalla would take it but the theme to Brokeback Mountain was so damn memorable that I just didn't think it could be counted out (this was certainly an instinct that proved me wrong the next year when I predicted Pan's Labyrinth, but at least the category didn't think I was entirely wrong because they changed the rules of the category following Babel's win, anyway...). I'm not sure that The Power of the Dog has a very memorable theme. It's just slow and building throughout.
Without confidence, I would predict Dune, which is how I plan on predicting all of Dune's victories save for Best Visual Effects.
Were I to vote, I would go with either Nicholas Britell or Alberto Iglesias. I don't have a strong preference right now, but I think I would lean towards Don't Look Up because I would say that Nicholas Britell probably had the hardest task of material and possibly elevated it the most. I'm reasonably sure that Jonny Greenwood and Hans Zimmer could've swapped scoring duties and each one could've produced something nearly as good. I have no idea if that big band sound was Nicholas Britell's idea or if it was Adam McKay's, but it's just such an inspired idea.
Categories One-by-One: Original Score
Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Score
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anonymous1980
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Categories One-by-One: Original Score
The nominees:
Don't Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up's score is the best thing about the movie, IMO and Parallel Mothers' score is acclaimed. But they're in the "happy just to be nominated" position. Disney scores used to win here all the time in the 1990's. Encanto's score could be a spoiler. Germain Franco is actually the first woman ever to score a Disney animated feature and the first Latina to ever get nominated for Original Score which could have boosted her chances if more people knew about these facts more widely. But I think it will be between Hans Zimmer and Jonny Greenwood. Hans Zimmer swept the precursors so far and has the edge to get his long-overdue second Oscar but The Power of the Dog is strong and could pull Jonny Greenwood a win, who also has two other scores this year and has been accumulating respect as a film composer. But I think this is Dune's.
Don't Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up's score is the best thing about the movie, IMO and Parallel Mothers' score is acclaimed. But they're in the "happy just to be nominated" position. Disney scores used to win here all the time in the 1990's. Encanto's score could be a spoiler. Germain Franco is actually the first woman ever to score a Disney animated feature and the first Latina to ever get nominated for Original Score which could have boosted her chances if more people knew about these facts more widely. But I think it will be between Hans Zimmer and Jonny Greenwood. Hans Zimmer swept the precursors so far and has the edge to get his long-overdue second Oscar but The Power of the Dog is strong and could pull Jonny Greenwood a win, who also has two other scores this year and has been accumulating respect as a film composer. But I think this is Dune's.