SAG Winners

[Reza]

I wonder if all those new International members have as much big-star sentimentality for Smith as a bunch of SAG actors clearly did.

I know the Indian contingent (Bollywood actors), who are now Academy members, will certainly vote for Will as they have schmoozed with him at private parties in India as well as famously participated (and danced) with the Hollywood star at one of the Filmfare awards (India's Oscar equivalent) in Bombay in the past. Plus Smith is a huge star in our part of the world thanks to his blockbusters.

[Mister Tee]

Some day-after thoughts, referencing some posts below:

I have a sense the addition of Influencers, along with the AFTRA arrivals of recent years, have pushed this Guild more all-out populist. This while AMPAS is moving a distinctly different direction. We saw big variations last year, and may see the same this time around.

I think we want to go a bit slower on this CODA thing. As Greg gets at below, this is a movie that only got 3 Oscar nominations overall; I believe the lowest total for a best picture winner in modern times is 5 (Annie Hall, The Departed and Green Book). All of those films got either directing or editing nominations (The Departed had both). So, you're asking to defy a lot of precedent.

I think of CODA as more akin to Little Miss Sunshine, The Help, or Hidden Figures, all of which won the best cast prize, and had some advocating for a best picture win (especially Little Miss Sunshine), which never came about.

This isn't to say The Power of the Dog didn't have a bad night. If the film were as strong as its 12 Oscar nominations have led some to believe, Smit-McPhee should have had a chance here. Though I have to say, I've always had my doubts about Smit-McPhee's staying power. He's young, a long-noticed AMPAS bugaboo among men, and his character is hardly Academy-profile. I think he really needs the BAFTA win to be strongly in contention. (I have to confess: if you'd asked me a month ago who his challenger would be, I'd have guessed Hinds, not Kotsur.)

I don't think Will Smith is quite the deep lock many seem to be assuming. In fact, I think, had he lost this to Garfield as many were predicting, he'd have been fully out in the cold. (I disagree with Magilla; I think losing here puts an end to Garfield's hopes.) Try and remember how locked in Chadwick Boseman felt at this point last year; the subsequent BAFTA loss was brushed off as, what do you expect?, they're British -- but the same thing could easily happen here with Cumberbatch winning, and could produce the same sort of upset. I wonder if all those new International members have as much big-star sentimentality for Smith as a bunch of SAG actors clearly did.

Another film that had a dismal night, almost unnoticed, was Belfast. It was the only film/director nominee in the Best Cast category, and it had the sort of family ensemble that can win that award, but it lost to the more flagrantly sentimental effort. This seems to me a sign of significant weakness -- not to say it can't rally at AMPAS, but it's had a lot of nicks in recent weeks.

Not that I know what can win best picture. I still feel like Power of the Dog is a wildly unlikely best picture candidate (and I'd say its shutout here underlined that). Its advantage is the lack of clear more-mainstream alternative -- it was supposed to be Belfast, now it's going to be CODA, maybe King Richard (which has the key editing nomination) could swoop in. One of them might win PGA -- or, hell: PGA could pick Dune. This category has had almost as much flux as best actress...though always with Power of the Dog as magnetic north.

And WGA looks insane now, too. People are talking like CODA is a sure thing in the absence of Dog, but that's a pretty sentimental pick for the group that last year went with Borat and Promising Young Woman (and went as far as Eighth Grade to avoid prizing Green Book). Dune could win there, as well (this is, after all, a group that chose Inception over The Kids Are All Right).

On the original side, it's like we'll have three separate races next month: WGA excludes Belfast, and will decide among the hip (Licorice Pizza), the snarky (Don't Look Up), and the heartwarming (King Richard) -- I have no idea which way they'll go. Then BAFTA brings Belfast into that group, and decides among them on turf you'd think advantageous to Branagh (screenplay being a category where BAFTA can be shamelessly parochial, even picking Philomena over best picture 12 Years a Slave). Then, whatever survivors emerge from these face-offs will meet on the more neutral field of AMPAS.

This is all my roundabout way of saying, no, Okri, I'm not quite ready to concede the original screenplay Oscar to Belfast. If I had to bet today, I'd probably go with it, but with the same hesitation I have in every category but director, song, and visual effects.

Finally, best actress. The same folk who've hopped Stewart-to-Kidman-to-Gaga-back to-Kidman are now convinced Chastain is unstoppable. What's that saying, about doing the same thing over and over/expecting a different result being the definition of insanity? Why can't anyone just enjoy a category in chaos? I'm loving it.

[flipp525]

Why were the acting nominations presented in non-alphabetical order?

[Greg]

One big problem with CODA winning Best Picture is that the last film to win Best Picture with fewer than four nominations was Grand Hotel.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote

Sabin wrote
It really seems a bit of a pattern that a Best Picture winner pick up an award for cast or a supporting player. But anyway, it's certainly possible that The Power of the Dog and Belfast overcomes this, especially considering that this is a very recent pattern that is occurring. But stranger things have happened. I think fundamentally, the door needs to be open a bit for CODA to win.

... that's a depressing outcome, but not beyond the realm. I think Belfast being ahead (I think, arguments welcome) in original screenplay means we can't ignore it but maybe Coda is a potential adapted screenplay winner? And we know AMPAS isn't hugely supportive of young male actors - Smit-McPhee would be the youngest winner since Timothy Hutton - so I can see Kotsur as well.

I think Belfast is certainly still in the race. It has seven nominations and it's probably going to win for screenplay, although I think we all have to admit that it's had a less successful awards season than many of us were expecting. This thing looked like a slam dunk on paper. It's shown up plenty but what's been its high moments so far? Winning the Golden Globe on a tweet? It has a few avenues ahead of it to shine, like maybe it wins the PGA? Or the BAFTA? But this does not feel like the year of Belfast. Its best chance at the Oscars was positioning itself as a sweet underdog. Some of that charm has been taken by CODA.

I was starting to think that CODA would win both those awards before the SAG awards last night.

I don't get the feeling that Jane Campion is going to win Oscars for writing and directing The Power of the Dog. I think it's seen mostly as an achievement of directing. Likewise, there's been enough confusion over the final bit of the film that leaves voters confused. If you're an Oscar voter, it's possible you write her name down twice, or you look to spread the wealth. Where do you go? Well, The Lost Daughter is the one film not nominated for Best Picture. That has to count against its chances. Dune probably isn't seen as a feat of writing. I could certainly be wrong, but I'd imagine that most voters are going to write its name down enough other places. You've also already written down Drive My Car for International Feature. Do you give it an additional award? Sure. It's possible. But if you love CODA as a film and want to honor its filmmaker, then Best Adapted Screenplay is your only spot.

I've also been generally skeptical about the notion that Kodi Smit-McPhee will win. He has a very good presence throughout the film but I never thought I was watching an Oscar-winning performance. I couldn't tell you what his big scene is. I personally don't have a strong preference between pretty much any of the nominees this year. I like Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and (honestly) J.K. Simmons about the same for different reasons. But Troy Kotsur has the most typically Oscar-ish part.

[Okri]

It really seems a bit of a pattern that a Best Picture winner pick up an award for cast or a supporting player. But anyway, it's certainly possible that The Power of the Dog and Belfast overcomes this, especially considering that this is a very recent pattern that is occurring. But stranger things have happened. I think fundamentally, the door needs to be open a bit for CODA to win.

... that's a depressing outcome, but not beyond the realm. I think Belfast being ahead (I think, arguments welcome) in original screenplay means we can't ignore it but maybe Coda is a potential adapted screenplay winner? And we know AMPAS isn't hugely supportive of young male actors - Smit-McPhee would be the youngest winner since Timothy Hutton - so I can see Kotsur as well.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
Oh, and suck it, CODA haters. Hahaha. A sweet, thoughtful movie that harms absolutely no one and shines a light on a not well-known about community. I called them winning right before the envelope opened. Most people who watch that film have no idea what “Deaf culture” and “Deafies” are and now they will because of that film.

I took ASL in high school and have a lot of interactions with deaf people because of Gallaudet’s close proximity. This film did a beautiful job of highlighting that world

I'm very happy for the impact of CODA. I'm just not a fan of the film.

But one thing I mentioned yesterday that I keep thinking about today. When was the last time a Best Picture winner didn't pick up a single award from SAG? Over the last ten years, there have been two: The Shape of Water and Nomadland. Every other film that has won Best Picture picked up either Best Ensemble Cast or a Supporting Award.

It really seems a bit of a pattern that a Best Picture winner pick up an award for cast or a supporting player. But anyway, it's certainly possible that The Power of the Dog and Belfast overcomes this, especially considering that this is a very recent pattern that is occurring. But stranger things have happened. I think fundamentally, the door needs to be open a bit for CODA to win.

[Big Magilla]

The nominated documentary short, Audible, which is also about deaf culture, does a much better job of showing that world, which is something I have had plenty of experience with as well.

[flipp525]

I told you all months and months ago to watch out for Chastain…

Oh, and suck it, CODA haters. Hahaha. A sweet, thoughtful movie that harms absolutely no one and shines a light on a not well-known about community. I called them winning right before the envelope opened. Most people who watch that film have no idea what “Deaf culture” and “Deafies” are and now they will because of that film.

I took ASL in high school and have a lot of interactions with deaf people because of Gallaudet’s close proximity. This film did a beautiful job of highlighting that world.

I also think that Troy’s clip for the Oscars should be when he looks around the theater in silence during his daughter’s big performance. Exquisite scene for him.

[Big Magilla]

Smith's speech was a bit egotistical, but it was heartfelt and polished. Cumberbatch and Garfield looked relieved that they didn't have to get up and make a speech. Better they should lose the Oscar than get up and apologize for taking it from the assumed front-runner.

DeBose's acting was decent enough, but all great Anitas rise and fall on their dancing. Hers was good but it wasn't the knockout that those of Chita Rivera, Debbie Allen, and Karen Olivo on Broadway and Rita Moreno in the first film version were. Part of the blame is on the shifting of "America" from the gym to the street where distractions from the dancing abound.

There were so many good performances by supporting actresses this year that no one should be dominating the category except maybe Kirsten Dunst or Ruth Negga, both of whom have been under-awarded.

[OscarGuy]

Apparently, I'm the only person who saw Smith's speech as being a bit egotistical. And by that, his I shepherded these young actors into Hollywood speech sounds like he's a god of Hollywood and that came off poorly to me.

And why the dunking on Ariana DeBose. Not bringing something new to a part that's been done a lot doesn't mean it's not a terrific performance.

[Mister Tee]

A front runner is just the person leading the race. I think unquestionably these are our new leaders. The race isn’t over at all, but we can’t forget that over the last ten years this group went 4/4 four times, 3/4 three times, and 2/4 twice. That’s a good track record. I don’t expect all to repeat but I’d happily bet on this group to repeat if given the option. Why not?

So, numbers...it's all how you look at numbers.

Sticking to those past 10 years: yep, 32 of 40 SAG winners have carried over to the Oscars. 80%; sounds daunting.

But, something to note: a full 20 of those 40 won not only SAG; they swept the entire TV quadrant -- Broadcasters, Globes, BAFTA, on top of SAG. Take those out, the remainder shows SAG with a 12 of 20 prediction rate...a less impressive 60%.

Wait, though. There's an additional 4 that won the Globe and BAFTA, in addition to SAG. Something that two of our winners tonight (Chastain, Kotsur) already can't match, a list Smith could potentially join, if Cumberbatch wins a quite possible BAFTA. (Like I've said, I assume DeBose's record stays pristine.)

So, now you're down to, among performances that failed to run the SAG/Globe/BAFTA table, SAG's winning percentage is only .500 -- 8 of 16. A coin flip.

And performances that won SAG and none of the other TV prizes (Broadcasters now thrown in)? A dismal 0 for 5 record with AMPAS -- including, of course, two (Elba, Blunt) who weren't even Oscar nominees.

End of pedantic math lesson.

6 hours ago, Nicole Kidman and Kodi-Smit-McPhee were cruising to Oscars. Now they're road-kill? I guess I don't see why there has to BE a front-runner at any given point. I argued strenuously that Kidman really hadn't earned the position, and now I'm going to say that Chastain (and Kotsur) don't, either. Sometimes, it's just a race; advantage nobody.

As for this, from anonymous:

"I think Will Smith and Ariana DeBose locked in their Oscar wins tonight. Smith nailed his acceptance speech..."

I remember, recently, people swearing up and down that a great speech meant an Oscar win was locked (you can look up the thread). It was given at the Globes by Glenn Close.

[Reza]

Ariana DeBose's continued triumph through awards season I just don't get. She brings nothing special to a well-known role. The other four nominees and at least as many non-nominees this year would have been better choices to win it all.

SO agree with you on this. I would actually love a Jessie Buckley upset at the Oscars.

Smith, Chastain will also carry through. And that kid will win for Dog.

You guys are right about CODA not carrying through for Best Picture but the Academy does like awarding sappy films in the screenplay category so that's where this film will get its lone Oscar.

[anonymous1980]

I think Will Smith and Ariana DeBose locked in their Oscar wins tonight. Smith nailed his acceptance speech and DeBose prevailed despite her film not being embraced by SAG.

I think it's Kodi Smit-McPhee vs. Troy Kotsur for the Oscar, most likely. Kodi will likely win Critic's Choice. He COULD win BAFTA but if Kotsur somehow upsets him there, it will likely be Kotsur for the Oscar. We'll see.

Best Actress continues to be a nail-biter. All five Best Actress nominees will have an almost equal shot at winning and there will be some suspense at the opening of the envelope.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Why would you say that -- especially a year after SAG whiffed on both lead prizes? Two of the four here differ from the only other TV awards given out so far, and it's very likely BAFTA will dissent even further. We have races! That's the headline I take away.

A front runner is just the person leading the race. I think unquestionably these are our new leaders. The race isn’t over at all, but we can’t forget that over the last ten years this group went 4/4 four times, 3/4 three times, and 2/4 twice. That’s a good track record. I don’t expect all to repeat but I’d happily bet on this group to repeat if given the option. Why not?

CODA likely won’t win Best Picture… but I don’t know. Crazier things have happened. Our two Best Picture “front runners” went home without a win between them. When was the last time that happened? Never? I am concerned that neither of these films has the requisite passion needed to win and that if we’re going to have an outright wacky winner due to the ballot it’s going to be this year. CODA would also have potentially three to its tally: Picture, Acting, Screenplay (increasingly a winning combo). History is up against it due to its lack of a DGA nod, but again: if it’s going to happen any year….

I was so happy for Troy Kotsur to win. What a moment! And by the end, I never wanted to see him again.

I’m uncertain about Will Smith’s chances but his speech was about as wonderful as one could imagine. What a class act!

Very happy for Jessica Chastain.