WGA Predictions

[MaxWilder]

There’s no reason to think Promising Young Woman won’t win original screenplay. It’s got all the right nominations (e.g. editing), indicating broad support.

[jack]

Mister Tee wrote
The last time two contenders were matched up and the WGA led us wrong was in 2000, twenty years ago, when Cameron Crowe went up against Kenneth Lonergan, twenty years ago, which I know we all discussed because we were all right here, twenty years ago, I'm old I'm so dreadfully old...

I remember this. Now I feel old.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
The Promising Young Woman choice suggests what Sabin opined is correct -- that Trial of the Chicago 7 feels a bit musty compared to other Sorkin efforts, and the writers are looking for something cooler. But you never know if AMPAS will follow. Remember, Green Book lost here to Eighth Grade, and still won the screenplay Oscar.

That's true. However, I'm not sure that race is the best example. The 2018 race for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA felt like a vote of either "Anything But Green Book" or "None of the Above" by selecting a script that wasn't Oscar-nominated. Although, it should be said that this is a hob-knobby group, Bo Burnham has fans, and Nick Vallalonga is an outsider. But either way, the outcome of that race would lead one to think The Favourite would win. Or Green Book's victory at the PGA would lead one to believe it's between the two of them. Either way, it was a lot less clear to me that this race.

We can't say for sure but this race certainly feels like it's between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman (I'm sure one could make the case for Judas and Minari though), both of whom are writer/directors and WGA nominated. We've had some of what we can perceive are close races over the last decade but usually the confusion is one of them being nominated for a WGA and the other not, so we can only guess what the outcome will be (2019, 2018, 2017, 2014, 2012, 2009) or outright shenanigans like what happened in 2016. The closest parallel I can think of is David O. Russell vs. Spike Jonze, and Jonze won. The last time two contenders were matched up and the WGA led us wrong was in 2000, twenty years ago, when Cameron Crowe went up against Kenneth Lonergan, twenty years ago, which I know we all discussed because we were all right here, twenty years ago, I'm old I'm so dreadfully old...

Anyway, Emerald Fennell is going to win.

[Mister Tee]

The Borat choice feels a bit like "None of the others". Which suggests One Night in Miami doesn't have much shot at AMPAS. This is a good omen for Nomadland, but The Father was also absent here, and might be the only film that can pace Nomadland in the category.

The Promising Young Woman choice suggests what Sabin opined is correct -- that Trial of the Chicago 7 feels a bit musty compared to other Sorkin efforts, and the writers are looking for something cooler. But you never know if AMPAS will follow. Remember, Green Book lost here to Eighth Grade, and still won the screenplay Oscar.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
I hate to say I told you so, but I did, I did:

My mistake.

Judas and the Black Messiah was the recipient of the Paul Selvin Award, which I misread as being Best Original Screenplay. The award went to Promising Young Woman.

Oh, well. Everybody else's first guess was my runner-up.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I hate to say I told you so, but I did, I did:

My mistake.

Judas and the Black Messiah was the recipient of the Paul Selvin Award, which I misread as being Best Original Screenplay. The award went to Promising Young Woman.

[Big Magilla]

I hate to say I told you so, but I did, I did:

Cinema Sight Predictions (3/19):

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah (Peter)
Palm Springs
Promising Young Woman (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

[Sabin]

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Documentary Feature: The Dissident

(CORRECTION: they gave Paul Selvin Award to Judas and the Black Messiah)

[nightwingnova]

Yes, it would be nice to have someone attuned to the mind of the WGA commenting on this board.

[quote="Sabin"]The WGA is voting this weekend. I wonder what BJ was voting for...

[Sabin]

The WGA is voting this weekend. I wonder what BJ was voting for...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It feels like this race is down to Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7. This is a slightly younger crowd and there's quite a bit of Emerald Fennell worship among writers for her incredible resume. Promising Young Woman is pretty zeitgeist-y, while Aaron Sorkin (and Trial of the Chicago 7) feels a bit musty these days. This doesn't necessarily means that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is out. Consider that Green Book lost this award in 2018 to Eighth Grade (which would favor Palm Springs in this scenario... or maybe still The Trial of the Chicago 7).

Likelihood of win:
1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. Sound of Metal
5. Palm Springs


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Even if Nomadland were included in this list, it wouldn't be a great lineup. No Best Picture nominees. On paper, the two likelier winners (News of the World and The White Tiger) seem to be taking a backseat to the unlikelier winners: two play adaptations and a sketch comedy sequel. I think One Night in Miami should probably be considered the frontrunner because One Night in Miami is well-liked and became Kemp Powers is well-liked, but I'm going to predict that they throw a curveball and go for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. One Night in Miami generally underperformed across the board whereas Borat Subsequent Moviefilm did a little bit better. There's a fairly strong, timely arc to Maria Bakalova's story. And also, there are so many writers nominated... what happens if all of their friends vote for them?

Likelihood of win:
1. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2. One Night in Miami
3. The White Tiger
4. News of the World
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom


BEST DOCUMENTARY
None of these films are nominated for Best Documentary Feature. As the most widely seen film, I'm guessing All In: The Fight for Democracy wins against a bunch of less widely seen films.