New York Film Critics Predictions

For the films of 2019
Big Magilla
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Re: New York Film Critics Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:48 pm

With NBR having gone for The Irishman in such a big way, I'm thinking maybe they'll want to spread the wealth and go for 1917 or Parasite for Best Picture and maybe Best Director.

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Re: New York Film Critics Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:45 pm

After seeing Marriage Story this afternoon, I'd be a lot less surprised to see Johansson win NY for this. Her early monologue in Dern's office is Liv Ullmann-level tour-de-force.

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Re: New York Film Critics Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:15 am

I'm really at a loss on this one. The New York Film Critics are an eclectic but often unpredictable lot. They long since ceased to be a reliable Oscar predicter.

When they gave the 1998 award to Cameron Diaz I saw it as an anomaly, but their subsequent awards, especially in the last ten years, have been an odd mix of conservative choices (Robert Redford) and "Oscar won't go there but we will" choices like Timothy Spall in Best Actor and a mix of Academy take notice awards in Best Actress (Saoirse Ronan twice) and "support the underdog" (Regina Hall) in Best Actress.

With that in mind:

Best Picture: The Irishman (1917; Marriage Story)
Director: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (Bong Joon Ho, Parasite; Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story)
Actor: Adam Driver, Marriage Story (Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes; Robert De Niro, The Irishman)
Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (Alfre Woodard; Clemency, Mary Kay Place, Diane )
Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The Irishman (Joe Pesci, The Irishman; Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story (Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell; Florence Pugh, Little Women)
Screenplay: Parasite (The Irishman; Marriage Story)
Foreign Language Film: Parasite (Pain and Glory; Portrait of a Lady on Fire)

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Re: New York Film Critics Predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:10 pm

BEST DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
BEST ACTOR: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
BEST ACTRESS: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Al Pacino, The Irishman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
BEST SCREENPLAY: Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won, Parasite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHER: Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
BEST FIRST-TIME FILMMAKER: Olivia Wilde, Booksmart
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: New York Film Critics Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:04 pm

In olden days, NY always used to announce the top three finishers, and I can’t stop thinking of the race that way.

Film: The Irishman
[Parasite, Marriage Story]

I think it’s pretty clearly among those three, and any one could end up eking out a win. I’m going with a swan song theory: they’ll see this as maybe Scorsese’s final masterwork, and will want to fete the local guy they’ve been boosting for 45 years.

Actor: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
[Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Robert DeNiro (The Irishman)]

Again, I think a fairly even three-way race. People may be underestimating the nostalgic appeal of awarding DeNiro for such a late-career high point; I even think his chances of an Oscar win are not zero. But here I think Driver’s popularity with critics (which preceded my appreciation of him), the fact he’s been building a resume over the past few years, and the additional credit of The Report, will carry him over the finish line.

Actress: Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
[Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)]

Theron – because NY passed on her Monster run – and Ronan – because NY clearly adores her – seem the strongest possibilities among the perceived Oscar slate. But I’m with Sabin, that none of that Oscar slate feel like a typical NY pick, and they’re likely to go outside the box (as they did with Rachel Weisz and Regina Hall). The women Sabin cites are very much possibilities. But I’m going with Alfre Woodard, about whom I hear wonderful things. It might be worth noting that the last two surprise winners – Haddish and Hall – were also African-American women.

Sup. Actor: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
[John Lithgow (Bombshell), Al Pacino (The Irishman)]

The supporting actor field this year is incredibly broad, but a lot of the hopefuls (Hopkins, Hanks, even Pitt) feel more like Oscar picks than critics’ favorites to me. These are the candidates I feel come closest to NY taste…but I could be very wrong.

Sup. Actress: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
[Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell), Florence Pugh (Little Women)]

A lot of the Awards Worthy folk are with Sabin in thinking this is JLo turf – based on Haddish, mostly – but something makes me resist that theory, perhaps the very obviousness of it. I’m thinking Dern’s accumulated credits, including Little Women as extra-credit this year, will carry the day.

Director: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
[Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)]

There’s a very good chance Bong could win here, but I’m going again with a Mick Jagger “this could be the last time” and saying Scorsese.

Screenplay: Marriage Story
[Parasite, The Irishman]

Fierce competition, but previous winner Baumbach feels like he’s got the most clearly “written” movie.

Foreign Film: Parasite
[Pain and Glory, Portrait of a Lady on Fire]

If Parasite wins best film, they’ll presumably go with one of the other two.

Cinematography: 1917
[The Lighthouse, A Hidden Life]

Deakins has won NY twice, but so long ago I didn’t even remember (Barton Fink ’91 and Kundun ’97). It may be his time again, but black-and-white or Malick are of course always threats.

Documentary: For Sama
[American Factory, Honeyland]

Since I’ve seen none of these, I’m picking on reputation alone. For Sama seems to have the strongest political pull.

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
[I Lost My Body]

I Lost My Body has a stronger hipness quotient, but it’s actually got a lower Metacritic score than Toy Story. Mostly, I don’t care who wins.

Directing Debut: The Last Black Man in San Francisco
[Atlantics, Honey Boy]

All critically honored, all with a coolness-quotient. Toss-up, but this is my pick.

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New York Film Critics Predictions

Postby Sabin » Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:13 pm

Someone else can post for the year-in, year-out insanity that is the National Board of Review predictions. My gut tells me:
- Marriage Story seems right up their alley. It's a very New York-y, "wine track" film, and probably one they can all get behind. I think the runners up will be The Irishman and Parasite.
- Is Parasite their bag? I keep looking for other foreign-language films they could get behind like Portrait of a Lady on Fire or Pain & Glory to resist the obvious, but none of them seem right.
- I have a hunch that Jennifer Lopez is up their alley for Hustlers, but which category? I'm leaning towards supporting because that train is already leaving the station.
- No idea for supporting. The Irishman supporting could cancel out. Not sure who else they might go with. I'm guessing Pitt because they like him and the film.
- Best Actress is wide open. Of the contenders, Saoirse Ronan seems the likeliest because it's so clear they're already a fan of hers, and Little Women seems up their alley. But I think they'll go for something more outside the box like Mary Kay Place for Diane or Elisabeth Moss for Her Smell.

NYFCC Predictions:

Best Film: Marriage Story

Best Foreign-Language Film: Parasite

Best Animated Film: I Lost My Body
Best Non-Fiction Film: For Sama
Best First Film: Olivia Wilde, Booksmart

Best Actor: Adam Driver, Marriage Story & The Report

Best Actress: 
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Best Director: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Best Screenplay: Marriage Story

Best Cinematography: A Hidden Life
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