Kicking Off the Fall Season

For the films of 2019
Mister Tee
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:41 pm

I think the issue DiCaprio is facing is that, while most would think, sure, he should be among the five nominees, it's hard to imagine many thinking, He's my choice for the win this year -- and the voting is more dependent on number one ballot positions. I think it's not unlike the position Hanks was in for Captain Phillips -- many of us would have been happy with a nomination, to salute Hanks' return to solid acting, but hardly any of us would have thought it worthy of a third trophy. Leo's recent win pretty much rules him out of win contention this year, for that good-but-not-overwhelming role. It's easier to imagine Driver, Phoenix, Banderas and Pryce getting those first-place votes, leaving DiCaprio to joust with DeNiro for a tag-along spot. (Which occasionally can come through -- somehow, more people thought Johnny Depp deserved the nod for Finding Neverland than Paul Giammatti for Sideways.)

Someone on Twitter noted that the supporting actor category this year is shaping up as full-out 90s revival -- with winners from 1990 (Pesci), '91 (Hopkins), '92 (Pacino) and '93/'94 (Hanks) potentially facing off with 1995 nominee Brad Pitt. Everything old is new again.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Reza » Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:49 pm

I think the only person around with a bias against Netflix is Spielberg. And even he has probably shut up about it now. The Academy certainly has none. If they can back a foreign film so heavily last year they are certainly going to honour homegrown films. They may have a personal bias against Murphy but certainly not because his film is playing on Netflix.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Sabin » Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:51 pm

Mister Tee wrote
Some male actors have also received strong notices for these two films as well -- Chalamet in Little Women, Lithgow in Bombshell -- but they have a considerably more uphill battle breaking into a supporting field that includes, at minimum, Pitt, Hopkins, Pacino, Pesci, Hanks, and Dafoe.

Meanwhile Best Actor hasn't really taken shape yet. The only thing we know for certain is that Adam Driver looks set to pick up his second nomination (and second in a row this year) while Joaquin Phoenix is the likeliest front-runner to win for Joker. It seems silly that two actors in almost ten years could win an Oscar for playing the Joker (like he's the American Hamlet) but the times are what they are. Beyond that, Evita co-stars Jonathan Pryce and Antonio Banderas are probably good enough bets for career-first nominations playing Pope & Pedro in two films that look like strong star vehicles that could satisfy all factions of the Academy.

I know that many are predicting Leonardo DiCaprio for the last spot (and he's quite good) but it seems as though DiCaprio (more than any other actor) has to hit such a precise bullseye to get a nomination. I find his awards trajectory pretty interesting. While he has five acting nominations for acting, the man has ELEVEN Golden Globe nominations. And these nominations make up most of his major screen performances. There's a "Close, but no cigar" quality to most of these performances that give the impression that just somewhere along the line I'm not sure this vain, egomaniac actor is going to do it.

But it could happen. The last spot will either go to DiCaprio, or Robert De Niro for The Irishman (who suffers from muted praise and mixed VFX reception), Eddie Murphy for Dolemite is My Name (Netflix bias), Aaron Egerton for Rocketman (released too long ago; feels too yesterday's news compared to Bohemian Rhapsody), Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems (too indie, and feels no obligation to honor him), or Christian Bale and Matt Damon for Ford v. Ferrari (if one of them IS a standout), Daniel Kaluuya for Queen & Slim (if it catches on), or Mark Ruffalo (if it's remotely interesting). Maybe in the end the best bet might end up being Michael B. Jordan, who's been courting a nomination for some time for Just Mercy. It sounds like a pretty average film but it fits the mood of the country -- and the Academy.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby MaxWilder » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:27 am

General heads-up: Little Women (1994) is leaving Netflix streaming on November 1.

Okri wrote:I really resent the idea of Bombshell being an actual good movie.

It's not terribly far-fetched. Jay Roach has directed a few well-received TV movies about the media and politics. In fact he's won 2 best directing Emmys and 2 DGA awards.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Okri » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:42 pm

I really resent the idea of Bombshell being an actual good movie.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:07 pm

We appear to be in a getting-to-be-rare sort of year, where the picture post-Toronto is very misleading. Most years, the primary race is set by that mid-September cut-off, with at most one big late entry (The Revenant, American Sniper) crashing the party. Here, we've had The Irishman landing hard at NY, excited critical response about both Bombshell and Little Women, with 1917 and Richard Jewell to come (and, unless the buzz about the former is complete PR hype, it, like The Irishman, is going to stake its claim as a upper-tier candidate).

Thoughts about this circumstance:

Trying to think about the last time we've really seen such a late surge of strong entries, I guess maybe 2012: Lincoln and Life of Pi held off till NY, and Zero Dark Thirty/Les Miz/Django were festival-less December debuts. Of course, even there, best picture and best actress went to Toronto entries.

2013 also somewhat followed that pattern, with Captain Phillips and Her debuting in NY, and American Hustle/Wolf of Wall Street waiting till December. We didn't so much notice, though, because the best picture race seemed set as Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave from Toronto on, and every top six category was eventually won by a September-or-earlier entrant.

What the two most recent arrivals, Bombshell and Little Women, have truly done is strengthen the female acting categories. Neither is overflowing the way both male slates are, but adding Ronan and Theron to the already-established Zellweger and Johnansson means there will be a battle mostly for the final slot. A month ago, it seemed Cynthia Erivo would slip in simply from lack of opposition; now she'll have to battle Awkwafina and maybe N'yongo to eke out the slot. In supporting, people can stop pretending Margot Robbie had much to do in ...Hollywood, nominating her instead for a apparently fuller role in Bombshell, and Florence Pugh can start cashing in those promising newcomer reviews she's been getting over the past two years. Given that Laura Dern and JLo were already close-to-set contenders, it's now much more difficult for Shuzhen Zhao to get the always-elusive foreign-language supporting nod. (It might take Awkwafina making the top list, and dragging her along.)

Some male actors have also received strong notices for these two films as well -- Chalamet in Little Women, Lithgow in Bombshell -- but they have a considerably more uphill battle breaking into a supporting field that includes, at minimum, Pitt, Hopkins, Pacino, Pesci, Hanks, and Dafoe.

The late-breaking films also severely undercut the hopes of second-tier films making the best picture list. Last year, we had a bumper crop of "boy, did you pick the right year" nominees -- Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, even Black Panther. This year, films that, post-Toronto, looked like decent hopefuls (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v. Ferrari) or at least long-shot candidates (Uncut Gems, Joker, The LIghthouse) are gong to have to figure how to get on the list when ...Hollywood, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite, Little Women, Bombshell and 1917 are blocking out the sun. It's turned out to be a sneaky good year.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Sabin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:43 am

Big Magilla wrote
Little Women was screened for SAG members to rapturous reviews Wednesday night. Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Screenplay, Ronan as Jo and Pugh as Amy seem certain. Gerwig for Direction and Streep as Aunt March for Supporting Actress are also possible.

A friend of mine saw it and loved it. She did confess that the non-linear structure was a little difficult to track at times.

Right now, it sounds like Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress (Pugh), Original Score, Art Direction, and Costume Design are very good bets. Director, Supporting Actress (Streep), Adapted Screenplay, and Film Editing are in the mix too. I could somehow see Adapted Screenplay getting left off if only because it IS Little Women after all.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:36 am

Little Women was screened for SAG members to rapturous reviews Wednesday night. Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Screenplay, Ronan as Jo and Pugh as Amy seem certain. Gerwig for Direction and Streep as Aunt March for Supporting Actress are also possible.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:51 pm

Mister Tee wrote
I guess I'm having trouble imagining what new there is to mine from the material that transcends either the '33 or '94 versions. Just doing a professional job on a time-worn property isn't enough to get me excited.

Agreed. Which is what I was thinking originally, however...

AS PER INDIEWIRE:

Gerwig and Houy are expected to do something similar with “Little Women.” Gerwig’s script is rumored to take Alcott’s chronological narrative and break it up so that the story is now told in nonlinear fashion. Gerwig’s goal is to rearrange the events of the novel so that the book’s themes are at the forefront of the movie. Expect the new “Little Women” to feel more like a thematic collage than a traditional coming-of-age movie.


I mean... I don't know if this is going to win Best Picture but it sounds pretty wonderful.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:14 pm

I'll save most of my thoughts for a post-festival thread, but as regards Little Women:

I'm certainly impressed with director Gerwig post-Lady Bird, but a throwaway quote from an interested party/cast member isn't much to go on.

The big issue I have with Little Women is the one I had with A Star is Born -- why is this necessary? In fact, the properties scan pretty well: each was a best picture nominee in the 30s, had a Technicolor remake in the waning studio days, a later version that revamped things substantially (Star relocating to the music industry, Women including material from Alcott's biography), and now an actor-directed version in the new millennium. Differences: Little Women had an earlier, silent version (the stuff you can find out from IMDB); It's the second Little Women but the third Star Is Born that's considered least interesting.

I guess I'm having trouble imagining what new there is to mine from the material that transcends either the '33 or '94 versions. Just doing a professional job on a time-worn property isn't enough to get me excited.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:35 pm

Big Magilla wrote
Streep will more likely be nominated for The Laundromat.

My friend has seen it. Says unlikely.

Big Magilla wrote
Sarah Polley was not Greta Gerwig's co-writer. Polley's decade old script was rejected by the studio. As per IMDb's trivia page on the film:

Ah.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:45 am

Sabin wrote:Meryl Streep just proclaimed that Little Women is something in the vicinity of a masterpiece. The trailer is certainly wonderful. I remain skeptical at the notion of what must be closer to the tenth adaptation of Louisa May Alcott's book than the fifth becoming a hot ticket with the Academy regardless of who's involved...

Then I went on wikipedia to check out who was involved with the project. Yorick Le Saux is shooting. Frances Ha editor Nick Houy is editing it. We have a score by Alexandre Desplat. The combination of Desplat and Little Women sounds like an Oscar winner to me.

... then I noticed who Greta Gerwig's co-writer is.

Sarah Polley.

This is an adaptation of Little Women written by Greta Gerwig and Sarah Polley.

This might just a VERY good film.

(NOTE: also, are we thinking that Meryl Streep *doesn't* get nominated for being in Little Women?)


Sarah Polley was not Greta Gerwig's co-writer. Polley's decade old script was rejected by the studio. As per IMDb's trivia page on the film:

"Greta Gerwig was originally tasked by Sony Pictures to write a new screen adaptation of Louisa May Alcott's novel after the studio had rejected earlier scripts by Olivia Milch and Sarah Polley. However, after the success of Gerwig's Lady Bird (2017), Sony Pictures hastily offered Gerwig the chance to direct this film using her script in the hopes of forcing the delayed project into production after years of development hell."

Streep will more likely be nominated for The Laundromat.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby anonymous1980 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:54 am

If that is true, it would be really cool to see Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig up against each other in the Best Director race.

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:32 am

Meryl Streep just proclaimed that Little Women is something in the vicinity of a masterpiece. The trailer is certainly wonderful. I remain skeptical at the notion of what must be closer to the tenth adaptation of Louisa May Alcott's book than the fifth becoming a hot ticket with the Academy regardless of who's involved...

Then I went on wikipedia to check out who was involved with the project. Yorick Le Saux is shooting. Frances Ha editor Nick Houy is editing it. We have a score by Alexandre Desplat. The combination of Desplat and Little Women sounds like an Oscar winner to me.

... then I noticed who Greta Gerwig's co-writer is.

Sarah Polley.

This is an adaptation of Little Women written by Greta Gerwig and Sarah Polley.

This might just a VERY good film.

(NOTE: also, are we thinking that Meryl Streep *doesn't* get nominated for being in Little Women?)
Last edited by Sabin on Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:35 am

Yes, things are working now.

I edited my long post from yesterday to include my brief opening paragraph, but didn't attempt to put titles back in italics or use the ellipsis in Once Upon a Time...Hollywood as those things are considered "special characters" by phpBB which caused it to burp until Wesley upgraded the coding.


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