Campaign 2020

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Bog » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:52 pm

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Last edited by Bog on Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:46 pm

Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote
And, in the past week, I'd say the actions re: Syria/the Kurds has pushed the foreign policy failure Key emphatically down. It took two years for Iraq to become as clear a negative for Bush as this situation has for Trump in just a matter of days.

Did Trumps' Foreign/Military Failure turn into a Foreign/Military Victory?

Not even close. Every respectable new outlet is describing it as complete capitulation.

I've been busy and haven't had time to answer your previous post. Will try to get to it in the next 24-48 hours,

I do echo Bog on Pelosi. I was thinking today, it's between her and the whistleblower for Time's Person of the Year.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:47 pm

Mister Tee wrote
And, in the past week, I'd say the actions re: Syria/the Kurds has pushed the foreign policy failure Key emphatically down. It took two years for Iraq to become as clear a negative for Bush as this situation has for Trump in just a matter of days.

Did Trumps' Foreign/Military Failure turn into a Foreign/Military Victory?
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:37 am

Bog wrote:Nancy Pelosi is the SHIT!

That's all.

I had planned to make this a topic thread title, but I possibly am not able to post new topics any longer?


News to me. Maybe you just forgot how!

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:51 am

Bog wrote
Nancy Pelosi is the SHIT!

That's all.

Why is Nancy Pelosi the shit?
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Bog » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:17 am

Nancy Pelosi is the SHIT!

That's all.

I had planned to make this a topic thread title, but I possibly am not able to post new topics any longer?

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:04 pm

Greg wrote
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to endorse Bernie Sanders for president, sources say:

Great news for Sanders following a terrific debate performance.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Greg » Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:35 pm

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to endorse Bernie Sanders for president, sources say:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/15/politics ... index.html
"Let's be honest, the federal government has a printing press in their basement. When they have the political will, they find the money."

Andrew Cuomo

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:47 am

From CNBC:

Mike Bloomberg might end up running for president, after all. Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York, has indicated to associates in recent weeks that Joe Biden’s recent struggles against Sen. Elizabeth Warren are making him rethink his decision to stay out of the 2020 Democratic primary.

That’s according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because the conversations were deemed private.
Bloomberg has signaled he’s “still looking at” running for president, but people close him say that the only way he could even go down that path is if Biden’s fortunes suffer so much that he drops out before or during the early stages of the primary.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:51 pm

Mister Tee wrote
I'm not sure if the Keys system is going to be fully predictive this year -- Trump is so sui generis horrible and both reviled/adored that a rigorous up/down system may not encompass all that voters are considering.

There would be a symmetry to Lichtman's formula beginning at the start of one civil war and ending at another.

Ask a Trump voter, and the only keys he has lost are Party Mandate, Foreign/Military Success (maybe?) which would put him in the best position for reelection since Reagan in 1984.

Ask a Democrat, and he's fucked with nine keys against him (Party Mandate, Short-Term, Long-Term, Policy Change, Social Unrest, Scandal, Foreign Failure, Foreign Success, and Incumbent Charisma) and if he's removed from office resulting in a serious contest for the nomination the party might have ten or eleven against them.

What is the truth?

Also, perhaps you can educate me: Lichtman is consistently cited as the man who predicted Trump's victory. Doesn't his model point to Clinton? The Democrats only lost five keys in 2016 (Party Mandate, Incumbency, Policy Change, Foreign Military Success, Incumbent Charisma). That would point towards Clinton winning the popular vote. That said, it was the kind of screwy election where Bernie Sanders' candidacy had the appearance of a serious contest but there was no second ballot, where the two third party candidates' totals combined totaled more than 5% of the vote but not individually, where the same Republicans who currently tout Trump's miraculous economy said we were doing terribly back in 2016, where Black Lives Matter activists were received very differently on both sides, where Benghazi continued to loom in Republican minds and Edward Snowden in Democrats', where the Iran deal (remember that?) was widely disregarded by 50% of the media, and how does one gauge the charisma of Donald Trump? Either way, by any metric, Trump came millions shy of the POPULAR vote which is the only predictor Lichtman talks about.

Mister Tee wrot[e/b]
And, in the past week, I'd say the actions re: Syria/the Kurds has pushed the foreign policy failure Key emphatically down. It took two years for Iraq to become as clear a negative for Bush as this situation has for Trump in just a matter of days.

I'm glad you posted this because it's something I've been wondering. It's just so horrible. Even Noam Chomsky thinks we should remain in that area of the Middle East.

[b]Mister Tee wrote
Add these to the Keys Lichtman clearly marks down -- Congressional mandate, lack of foreign policy success, incumbent charisma -- and he's on the brink, with significant policy change very debatable, and short-term economy/opponent charisma yet to be decided. (To say nothing of, should he actually be removed from office, intra-party split or -- don't discount it -- social unrest.)

So, we have four currently? If he is impeached, that will be five.

What is his significant policy change? The wall was not built. The tax cuts were draconian, crazy, unpopular, and just tax cuts. Just a general redirection of priority akin to the Reagan revolution?

If one party is going to split before the election, it doesn't seem like it's going to be the Democratic Party.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:02 pm

Here's an item that does fall under Campaign 2020:

I'm not sure if the Keys system is going to be fully predictive this year -- Trump is so sui generis horrible and both reviled/adored that a rigorous up/down system may not encompass all that voters are considering.

But if it does...i say the past few weeks have seriously damaged Trump's standing. I was already on record saying I thought Lichtman's "Dems must impeach for scandal to count" was weak sauce, but, in any case, he's now got what he wanted and polls are showing the scandal key is down about as far as it could be.

And, in the past week, I'd say the actions re: Syria/the Kurds has pushed the foreign policy failure Key emphatically down. It took two years for Iraq to become as clear a negative for Bush as this situation has for Trump in just a matter of days.

Add these to the Keys Lichtman clearly marks down -- Congressional mandate, lack of foreign policy success, incumbent charisma -- and he's on the brink, with significant policy change very debatable, and short-term economy/opponent charisma yet to be decided. (To say nothing of, should he actually be removed from office, intra-party split or -- don't discount it -- social unrest.)

Botom line: Trump's disapproval numbers have always marked him a difficult prospect for re-election, even not meeting Lichtman's criteria. Now his system is beginning to line up with those empirical numbers.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:36 am

I support an impeachment thread. For sure. At this point, I have three bets going with my friends and so I’d like to see how I’m doing on them.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:29 pm

There's not much going on otherwise. Let's see what next week brings.

The two things are still closely intertwined. The Trump-Giuliani smear campaign against Biden in Ukraine was started to knock Trump's most likely opponent out of the race. They have so much proof now the impeachment vote can't be too far off at which time it will definitely require its own thread. They say Thanksgiving, but it should be Halloween, a more fitting holiday tie-in with all these scary characters.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:35 pm

So, I'm wondering: is it time for a separate thread on The Impeachment of Donald Trump? Stories are tumbling out seemingly hourly, one more serious/crazy than the last, and it seems it might be worth segregating from the Campaign thread (as the Campaign thread was from the daily developments thread).

Note: of course, by Impeachment I mean impeachment by the House, which I view as a certainty, as opposed to removal, which is an unknown variable. (Though more likely than anyone would have dreamt a month ago.)

I also recognize things germane to Impeachment will in many cases overlap/cross over with this thread -- in the same way that an economic crash would hover between daily developments and a Campaign issue -- but that's something we can sort out item by item. I just think there's going to be a LOT of news on the Impeachment front in the coming weeks, and it deserves a place of its own.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:08 am

During the 2016 presidential election, many truly remarkable things occurred. One of them was when Donald Trump broke George W. Bush's stranglehold on the Republican Party, permanently. Today, Bush seems more revered by Democrats who secretly long for a simpler time and a simpler enemy. By the close of 2008, you could tell that the Republican Party was ashamed of George W. Bush. They knew hew as a failure who spent too much, got us into two failed wars, and collapsed the economy. It's hard to find a reset button after that for a political party, but they found it in the collapse, protesting TARP, a scary black President, the ACA, and the birth of the Tea Party. Within months, they went from being the Party responsible for devastation to the Party dedicated to protecting your freedoms. To quote Bill Clinton, "It takes a lot of brass to blame the other guy for what you did." However, in one Republican debate, Donald Trump blamed George W. Bush for 9/11. Remarkable stuff. No Democrat would be caught dead saying as much. I remember hearing boos but I think it won him a lot of support from Republicans, old and new, desperate to turn the page.


Very interesting that the atrocities of both George W. Bush and Donald Trump dominated the news cycles this week.

Over the past three years, George W. Bush's rehabilitation has nauseated me. I understand why our country harkens back to an era of "civility" (when our President was an idiot and not a racist insult comic) but that is certainly not how it felt at the time. Seeing the Obamas cozy up to the Bushes didn't do it because one could rationalize that as former Presidents and First Ladies there were reasons for their proximity and the Obamas were simply demonstrating civility, although by all accounts they are indeed friends. It took Ellen DeGeneres, a rich white liberal woman, to show public displays of friendship for the world to remember that Bush is a war criminal. The spark may be the hypocrisy of Ellen acting friendly with a man who campaigned against gay marriage in 2004 (whether it was genuine or not), but really I think it's the anti-establishment mood of the country. Both the right and the left are dedicated to hunting out hypocrites wherever they may find them, as well as the notion that there are no disagreements among the mega-rich. I happen to agree with them in this instance but more so I'm just glad that people are remembering what a horrible war monger Bush was.

Trump has an interesting relationship with war. He's simultaneously the one president of my life most likely to start World War III and yet his base seems to have an isolationist slant to them. In 2016, he campaigned against Hillary Clinton as a hawk AND a dove capturing both at the same time. It's staggering to think that people rationalized a vote for Trump because Clinton was a hawk -- I would ask those people how they feel today with what we know about the Kurds. Put aside isolationism and interventionism, we now know that the Kurds are being slaughtered either because Turkey had dirt on Trump or our President is too much of a child to be on the phone for too long. I happen to think that Trump is staying in power but if the Senate vote was today, I think he'd be removed. Despite the fact that increasingly the Democratic Party has become the party of responsibility (perhaps too much) and the Republican Party has become the haunted graveyard where all of America's worst ghosts come back to life, this is a bridge too far for most Republicans. They still have to worry about reelection and their donors, and this week was disgusting. If we are attacked again, I know I will look to this past week for answers. No man keeps us less safe.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR


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