Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

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Precious Doll
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Postby Precious Doll » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:20 am

I don't think Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz will win both having been recent winners. Doubt the category fraud issue matters or they wouldn't have been placed here in the first place. Must say I've reached the point were I am sick of the level of fraud and that in both of the supporting categories we only have 6 legitimate supporting nominees.

I would much rather Linda Cardellini for Green Book, who had pretty much nothing to do and Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots (which I consider the worst supporting actress performance of the year) nominated in place of the brilliant performances of Emma Stone & Rachel Weisz because at least Cardellini & Robbie are actually in supporting roles and not participating in keeping people that belong in this category from a chance of recognition. Fuck you for nothing Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz & Fox Searchlight or maybe I should say your very poor sportsmanship.

Now onto the three legitimately placed performances nominated in this category: Amy Adams, Marina de Tavira & Regina King. They all play wife and mother roles but each dealing with vastly different circumstances. First to go is Marina de Tavira - it was a surprise nomination and if I am correct the last surprise nominee to even win an Oscar was Marisa Tomei in 1992. Don't think de Tavira will pull that off as her role is rather slight and in some respects she is almost an background person of sorts.

Amy Adams is next to go. If she had more to do she may have been in the running but I got no sense Lynne Cheney or her relationship with Dick. She was simply not malevolent enough to play the role is the style of Lady Macbeth - she doesn't strive to make him do things he would rather not do, she simply more or less stands by her man. She may be Adam's sixth nomination, but she'll be back and hopefully in something that is a fully deserved win. Love her, hate her or feel something in-between, she works hard and takes on a variety of projects. Her time will come.

By default its Regina King. The lack of certain SAG/BAFTA/GG shouldn't really make much different. Like Marcia Gay Harden nearly 20 years ago she will go on to a win based on her beautiful work that hit all the right notes with film critics. She deserves her win and she is exactly the type of actress this award was created for.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:46 am

This is a category that feels like it wants to be an easy choice but something keeps knocking it off course.

Some folks at Awards Watch are touting a de Tavira Upset a la Marisa Tomei. Only the biggest Roma landslide imaginable could make that happen.

Whatever you think of the chances of The Favourite split-squad, no one doubts that Emma Stone is the junior partner. Her win just two years back would seem to hobble her fatally. (Besides which, I think Rachel Weisz simply makes a deeper impression.)

A lot of people are saying Amy Adams doesn't have enough to do, and doesn't have an Oscar scene. I'd amend that: she has plenty to do, but it's mostly in the first half of the film -- and she absolutely has an Oscar scene...but it comes in the first 15 minutes. (When we talk about Oscar scenes, I think we unconsciously mean "scene that comes late in the movie so it sticks in your mind.") The results from shoulda-been-her-turf SAG suggest this once again just isn't Amy's year. I remain confident she'll win before long, but this one wouldn't really be worth it.

I assume lots, like Sabin and me, are having mood swings about Regina King. She was such a critics' sweeper, and won the Globe and Broadcasters -- she's got to be the favorite, right? But she lost the two industry-overlap awards, like alleged front-runner Sylvester Stallone. OK, she doesn't have Stallone's career baggage -- but she doesn't have his lifetime of fame, either. And you know one other thing she shares with him? She's the only one in her category not connected to a best picture nominee. Since the expansion to up-to-ten nominees, acting winners -- especially in support -- have tended to come from the best picture slate. (For exceptions Plummer and Vikander, their best picture-nominated opposition were barely in the race; Allison Janney is the only true precedent, and she's a whole lot more famous than Regina King.) Still, there's a temptation to think, screw it: she's the best, and look at how she swept those critics' awards. But you know who could have said the same? Amy Ryan. She, too, was saddled with a film that neither audiences nor AMPAS fully embraced, and she went home the loser to a Brit from a best picture contender.

Which off course describes Rachel Weisz. I confess, initially I didn't make much of Weisz's chances: she'd be splitting the ballot with a co-star, and her already-won status seemed sure to work against her. But that win was so long ago many might have forgotten it...and her film got a rollicking 10 nominations (it's really the nominations leader, given its sort of unfair to count Roma's foreign film nod in the tally). It's not like there's true enthusiasm for much of anything this year, but The Favourite seems to be one film that's genuinely liked. I've come around to thinking Weisz has a true chance.

Or it could be King. And either would be deserving. Check with me in ten days to see my final call.

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Postby Sabin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:50 pm

I moved my post from the BAFTA thread to here:

I'm so annoyed by Best Supporting Actress this year. It's so hard to make the case for Regina King when the only two awards groups with Academy overlap didn't nominate her. At least with Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained, you could make the case that they didn't see it in time, as evidenced by his BAFTA win.

It's even harder to make the case for Amy Adams when everybody nominates her but nobody thinks she's good enough to win.

It's somehow even harder to make the case for Rachel Weisz... why? Because she's already won (see: Mahershala Ali)? Because she's up against somebody else in the same category (see: Melissa Leo)? Because she's British (see: the article below)? Because her film is British (it has ten Oscar nominations and Beale Street isn't up for Best Picture)?
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:40 am

I think King will win based on performance.

Weisz would have a shot if she hadn't won before, but she has. Adams could get a sympathy vote, I suppose, but she's still young with presumably lots of chances before her to get out of the stigma of being the "most nominated living loser" if Close wins and she doesn't. She has two things going against her this year. She's playing an unpleasant real-life character and unlike co-star Christian Bale who really looks like his character, she just looks like herself in an ugly wig.

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Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:32 am

The nominees:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

This is the one acting race that is most up in the air. There will be definitely be some suspense when the envelope is opened. On paper, the front-runner SHOULD be Regina King. She swept the critics awards and won the Globe and the Critics Choice. But then stumbled on the way to her supposed coronation when she failed to get nominated in the two awards that share some membership with the Academy: The SAG's and the BAFTA's. The SAG went to a non-Oscar nominee, Emily Blunt while the BAFTA went to the British nominee, Rachel Weisz. If this feels familiar this is almost exactly the scenario Sylvester Stallone found himself in a few years ago. However, there are several differences in favor of King: She's won more critics awards than Stallone, her film has more support than Stallone's (Beale Street has two other nominations) and she has a career that's far more "respectable" than Stallone. Plus Weisz HAS won before and could be splitting the vote with her co-star Emma Stone (who also similarly just won).

If Glenn Close wins and Amy Adams loses again, Adams will inherit the title of Living Actress with the Most Nominations without a Win. Some people thought that because of this, Adams could have taken advantage of King's absence in the BAFTA and the SAG list and win those and start some momentum towards her finally winning but it was not to be. She's going to have to wait a little longer for her win. While Marina de Tavira would just have to be content with getting to be invited to the party with a nomination barring a Marisa Tomei-style shocker.

So, yeah, I think Regina King will win.

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