dws1982 wrote:MaxWilder wrote:Say three of the nominees get 45% of the vote: 20%, 15% and 10% (50, 37 and 25 votes), leaving 55% (138 votes) for the other two. There are 18 win/lose outcomes (87-51, 86-52, ..., 70-68) and one tie outcome (69-69); i.e., a 5.3% chance (1/19) of a tie.
Shouldn't the win/lose outcomes be counted twice? Because 87-51 would actually describe two scenarios: Gaga getting 87, Close getting 51, or Close getting 87, and Gaga getting 51. And then, theoretically, you could also consider the scenarios where Gaga gets 0, Close gets 138, Close gets 0, Gaga gets 138.
I assumed the third place finisher gets 50 votes, so second place gets at least 51; getting 0 would make Close or Gaga last place. Anyhow, I made so many assumptions here that I don't think any of this would stand up to scrutiny!