Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

anonymous wrote
Some would argue comparisons to Kundun is a compliment.

Something that will never be heard at Paramount:
"Good news guys! We're making Kundun money!

Big Magilla wrote:

anonymous1980 wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:The leaked reports on yesterday's Silence screening for New York critics don't seem to be all that good.

Really? Based on Twitter, it's quite the opposite.

Some yes, some no - comparison to Kundun is not a good sign, but we shall see.

Some would argue comparisons to Kundun is a compliment. And the good reviews of Silence were rapturous.

anonymous1980 wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:The leaked reports on yesterday's Silence screening for New York critics don't seem to be all that good.

Really? Based on Twitter, it's quite the opposite.

Some yes, some no - comparison to Kundun is not a good sign, but we shall see.

Big Magilla wrote:The leaked reports on yesterday's Silence screening for New York critics don't seem to be all that good.

Really? Based on Twitter, it's quite the opposite.

The leaked reports on yesterday's Silence screening for New York critics don't seem to be all that good.

The NYFCC previously rewarded Amy Adams for Junebug. My gut tells me she's the least likely of the four acting winners likely to repeat from the NBR. Jeff Bridges, who's never won would seem to have a better shot at finally winning here.

BEST PICTURE: Moonlight
(RU: Manchester by the Sea)
BEST DIRECTOR: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
(RU: Pablo Larrain, Jackie)
BEST ACTOR: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
(RU: Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic)
BEST ACTRESS: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
(RU: Natalie Portman, Jackie)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
(RU: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
(RU: Naomie Harris, Moonlight)
BEST SCREENPLAY: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
(RU: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHER: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
(RU: James Maxton, Moonlight)
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Kubo and the Two Strings
(RU: Moana)
BEST NON-FICTION FILM: O.J.: Made in America
(RU: 13th)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Toni Erdmann
(RU: The Salesman)
BEST FIRST FEATURE: Garth Davis, Lion
(RU: Travis Knight, Kubo and the Two Strings)

Film: Manchester by the Sea

Actor: Adam Driver, Paterson

Actress: Isabelle Huppert, Elle & Things to Come

Sup. Actor: Jeff Bridges, Hell of High Water

Sup. Actress: Viola Davis, Fences

Director: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea

Cinematography: Moonlight

Animated Feature: The Red Turtle

Documentary: 13th

Foreign-Language Film: Toni Erdmann

First film: The Witch

BEST PICTURE: Moonlight
(RU: La La Land)
BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
(RU: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight)
BEST ACTOR: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
(RU: Denzel Washington, Fences)
BEST ACTRESS: Emma Stone, La La Land
(RU: Natalie Portman, Jackie)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
(RU: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Viola Davis, Fences
(RU: Naomie Harris, Moonlight)
BEST SCREENPLAY: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
(RU: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHER: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
(RU: Jarin Blaschke, The Witch)
BEST ANIMATED FILM: The Red Turtle
(RU: Zootopia)
BEST NON-FICTION FILM: O.J.: Made in America
(RU: Weiner)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Toni Erdmann
(RU: The Salesman)
BEST FIRST FEATURE: Robert Eggers, The Witch
(RU: Travis Knight, Kubo and the Two Strings)

And sending lots of positive vibes that someone will leak the final vote count as usual.

Guesses, but what the hell....


Film: Manchester by the Sea

Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Actress: Annette Bening (20th Century Women)

Sup. Actor: Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

Sup. Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)

Director: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea

Cinematography: Moonlight

Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings

Documentary: OJ: Made in America

Foreign-Language Film: Toni Erdmann

A few notes:

1) There's really not much of anyone past Affleck that would appeal to critics this year, is there? If there were a male Huppert out there -- overseas performer of long standing with an atypical hit -- he'd probably make the Oscar list for sure.

2) Like most, I've been presuming Oscar best actress is between Portman and Stone, but I'm beginning to get the idea that "we've taken Amy Adams for granted too long" sentiment has started to take hold. Should she make a showing in these critics' votes -- not wins, necessarily, but 2nd-3rd place finishes -- given Arrival's status as unexpected hit, I think she could be part of the equation in late February. So watch where she ends up here.

3) Documentary is hellacious, as always. I picked Weiner here strictly on the NY connection; it worked for me on In Jackson Heights last year.


Film: Manchester by the Sea
(Moonlight, Silence)

Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
(Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences))

Actress: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
(Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Emma Stone (La La Land))

Sup. Actor: Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
(Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash), Mahershala Ali (Moonlight))

Sup. Actress: Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
(Viola Davis (Fences), Linda Emond (Indignation))

Director: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
(Martin Scorsese (Silence), Pablo Larain (Jackie))

Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
(Moonlight, Love & Friendship)

Cinematography: Moonlight
(Silence, La La Land)

Animated Feature: The Red Turtle
(Moana, Kubo and the Two Strings)

Documentary: Weiner
(The 13th, OJ: Made in America)

First Film: Robert Eggers (The Witch)
(James Schamus (Indignation), Trey Edward Shults (Krisha))

Foreign-Language Film: Toni Erdmann
(Aquarius, Neruda)

Just figured I'd try out some predictions...



Best Picture – Moonlight
(ru Manchester by the Sea, La La Land)

Best Actor – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
(ru Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic; Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water)

Best Actress – Isabelle Huppert, Elle
(ru Emma Stone, La La Land, Sonia Braga, Aquarius)

Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
(ru Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Alden Ahrenreich, Hail Caesar!)

Best Supporting Actress – Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
(ru Naomie Harris, Moonlight, Lily Gladstone, Certain Women)

Best Director – Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
(ru Damian Chazelle, La La Land; Denis Villeneuve, Arrival)

Best Screenplay – Manchester by the Sea
(ru Hell or High Water; The Lobster)

Best Cinematography – Moonlight
(ru Arrival, Knights of Cups)

Best Non-Fiction Film – OJ Simpson: Made in America
(ru Weiner, The 13th)

Best Foreign-Language Film – Elle
(ru Neruda, Toni Erdmann)

Best First Film – The Witch
(ru Krishna, The Fits)