2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!
I know a slew of people who hate Angelina Jolie simply because of the Jennifer Aniston connection. Now, I wish I had never been confronted with this incredibly stupid rationale for disliking somebody but a lot of people out there are very attached to Jennifer Aniston, having watched her for years on Friends, and loathe Angelina Jolie for "breaking" her marriage apart.
"How's the despair?"
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OscarGuy
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I have never heard anything against Jolie. Most people I know (not critics or film enthusiasts, but people who like dumb entertainment) adore her and want to have her boobs pressed into their faces. So, maybe it's a cinema lover thing, I don't know.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Salt is going to do just fine. Early reviews are pretty positive and indicate a very solid action film. It's 95 minutes so it's going to have more screens than any other movie this weekend. It's definitely going to outgross Inception this coming weekend, but by how much?
The only thing holding Salt back isn't Inception but Angelina Jolie who for some reason people hold an irrational grudge against. I'll never understand it.
The only thing holding Salt back isn't Inception but Angelina Jolie who for some reason people hold an irrational grudge against. I'll never understand it.
"How's the despair?"
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Sonic Youth
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OscarGuy
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I wouldn't say Salt is going to be DoA. I know I'm seeing it with friends and several critics are liking it for what it is. Plus, Angelina Jolie will bring in the desired demos and I still think it will be a solid performer.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Franz Ferdinand
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Let's consider that there have only been two movies that were completely original concepts that outgrossed Inception's opening weekend: Avatar, and Bruce Almighty. For such a heady, two-and-a-half-hour, non-FX-driven, indescribable meta-narrative with only "from the director of The Dark Knight" tagline to sell it, this is a coup. It has been holding up fantastically so far in the week, earning $20M on Monday and Tuesday, and stands to earn $100M in its first seven days. Add to this that Salt will likely be DOA this weekend, and the sky is the limit for Nolan's movie.
I've already seen it twice, and I was certainly not alone in the theater last night.
I've already seen it twice, and I was certainly not alone in the theater last night.
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rolotomasi99
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Well, once again I over-estimated the intelligence and sense of adventure of the movie-going public. I had hoped INCEPTION could make $80 m in its opening weekend, but it had to settle for a very good $60 m. While this is not as big as I would have thought, I do need to consider it is one of the biggest opening weekends for an original film.
INCEPTION definitely faces its toughest challenge next weekend when it goes against big-budge action film SALT. If it can drop even slightly less than 50%, I think it will do quite well. All the subsequent weekends offer no likely blockbusters.
Judging from the fanboy reaction, specifically IMDB users listing INCEPTION as the the 3rd best film of all time, the word of mouth and repeat viewing is going to be intense. However, that does not mean it will pull in those from outside the cinema intelligencia and fanboy crowds (a curious combination of audience subsets who enjoy this film). Why go see a smart action film like INCEPTION when a less-smart action film like SALT is available?
We shall soon see what kind of legs INCEPTION has. I am thinking maybe a $35 m second weekend with SALT making around $50 m. I still think INCEPTION can make it past $300 m, but I am once again probably giving general audiences more credit than they deserve.
P.S. Finally having seen the trailer for TRON LEGACY on the big screen, I have gone from being really excited to be fucking super excited to see that film. I also now think it will likewise make more than $300 m and is INCEPTION's only real competition at the Oscars for F/X.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1279565841
INCEPTION definitely faces its toughest challenge next weekend when it goes against big-budge action film SALT. If it can drop even slightly less than 50%, I think it will do quite well. All the subsequent weekends offer no likely blockbusters.
Judging from the fanboy reaction, specifically IMDB users listing INCEPTION as the the 3rd best film of all time, the word of mouth and repeat viewing is going to be intense. However, that does not mean it will pull in those from outside the cinema intelligencia and fanboy crowds (a curious combination of audience subsets who enjoy this film). Why go see a smart action film like INCEPTION when a less-smart action film like SALT is available?
We shall soon see what kind of legs INCEPTION has. I am thinking maybe a $35 m second weekend with SALT making around $50 m. I still think INCEPTION can make it past $300 m, but I am once again probably giving general audiences more credit than they deserve.
P.S. Finally having seen the trailer for TRON LEGACY on the big screen, I have gone from being really excited to be fucking super excited to see that film. I also now think it will likewise make more than $300 m and is INCEPTION's only real competition at the Oscars for F/X.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1279565841
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
As expected, Inception topped the box office with $61 mil. More interesting to me though is how this $200 mil film (with untold millions poured into P&A) does next weekend. How far will it tumble? How many Nolan-heads will pour back in droves and how many will stay away? I see a 50% tumble, and then further tapering off.
Despicable Me beat The Sorcerer's Apprentice, which will end up as one of the summer's true bombs grossing a mere $17 mil on a $150 mil budget. This is another insanely-hyped film that will need to rely on overseas ticket sales to break even. Despicable Me actually added screens this weekend and picked up $32 mil for a total of $119 mil. On a $69 mil budget, it has already moved into profit.
Number four at the box office was Eclipse, which fell almost 60% to $14 mil. It stands at $264 mil on a $68 mil budget. This series is made out of money. Another small dip for Toy Story 3 which continues to survive Despicable Me and brought in $12 mil for a total of $363 mil. It should move slowly onward to $400 mil, a PIXAR first, and likely stand as the year's top earner. Both Alice in Wonderland and TS3 look like billion dollar grossers this year.
Grown-Ups grabbed another $10 mil for $130 mil on an $80 mil budget. Sandler's films continue to grow in budget but the cost of making them appears to be more than justified. Speaking of justified, The Last Airbender picked up $7.5 for $115 mil. Foreign sales haven't started to pick up yet but it looks like on a $150 mil budget, this film will see strong profits. Predators tumbled 70% for almost $7 mil. It stands with $40 mil on a budget of the same. Sights were certainly set higher than the $50 - $60 mil it'll likely bring in.
Rounding out the top ten, Knight & Day brought in another $4 for $69 mil on a $117 mil budget. Foreign sales will certainly boost that, but it's undeniably a huge disappointment for everyone involved. With another $2 mil, The Karate Kid though is one of the bright spots of the summer with a $169 mil in-take. On a $40 mil budget, that's a new franchise and a lot of profit.
Despicable Me beat The Sorcerer's Apprentice, which will end up as one of the summer's true bombs grossing a mere $17 mil on a $150 mil budget. This is another insanely-hyped film that will need to rely on overseas ticket sales to break even. Despicable Me actually added screens this weekend and picked up $32 mil for a total of $119 mil. On a $69 mil budget, it has already moved into profit.
Number four at the box office was Eclipse, which fell almost 60% to $14 mil. It stands at $264 mil on a $68 mil budget. This series is made out of money. Another small dip for Toy Story 3 which continues to survive Despicable Me and brought in $12 mil for a total of $363 mil. It should move slowly onward to $400 mil, a PIXAR first, and likely stand as the year's top earner. Both Alice in Wonderland and TS3 look like billion dollar grossers this year.
Grown-Ups grabbed another $10 mil for $130 mil on an $80 mil budget. Sandler's films continue to grow in budget but the cost of making them appears to be more than justified. Speaking of justified, The Last Airbender picked up $7.5 for $115 mil. Foreign sales haven't started to pick up yet but it looks like on a $150 mil budget, this film will see strong profits. Predators tumbled 70% for almost $7 mil. It stands with $40 mil on a budget of the same. Sights were certainly set higher than the $50 - $60 mil it'll likely bring in.
Rounding out the top ten, Knight & Day brought in another $4 for $69 mil on a $117 mil budget. Foreign sales will certainly boost that, but it's undeniably a huge disappointment for everyone involved. With another $2 mil, The Karate Kid though is one of the bright spots of the summer with a $169 mil in-take. On a $40 mil budget, that's a new franchise and a lot of profit.
"How's the despair?"
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rolotomasi99
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Happy INCEPTION day everyone!
The savior of summer 2010 and probably one of the smartest big budget films ever has finally arrived. The buzz and expectations for this thing are immense, and no matter how great it is inevitably some will be disappointed. However, so far the reviews are great and the early voting on imdb is nearly 3,000 people rate it a 9.6 (though this will of course come down).
This movie has more buzz than any movie released so far, and unlike say KICK-ASS I believe the buzz will manifest itself in actual widespread support for the film. Christopher Nolan has almost become a brand much like Bruckheimer, Emmerich, Spielberg, etc. among fanboys. I think Nolan has a huge amount of good will from THE DARK KNIGHT, and people will check this film out not just because it looks good and got good reviews but because Nolan always delivers a great film.
In terms of box-office, anything below $70 m for the opening weekend will probably be called a disappointment. I was worried THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE would pose some trouble for INCEPTION, but those fears were clearly unfounded. With THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE already having burnt off two days of the few people interested in it, INCEPTION is practically opening on its own this weekend. I predict this could clear it for an $80 m opening weekend (though bigger is a real possibility).
The reviews keep saying it is a film that demands and deserve to be seen multiple times, so I am hopeful that this film will easily glide over $300 m and settle somewhere around $350 m. SALT is its only real competition for the rest of the summer. It would be awesome if the number one film and number two film of 2010 at the box-office were TOY STORY 3 and INCEPTION.
The savior of summer 2010 and probably one of the smartest big budget films ever has finally arrived. The buzz and expectations for this thing are immense, and no matter how great it is inevitably some will be disappointed. However, so far the reviews are great and the early voting on imdb is nearly 3,000 people rate it a 9.6 (though this will of course come down).
This movie has more buzz than any movie released so far, and unlike say KICK-ASS I believe the buzz will manifest itself in actual widespread support for the film. Christopher Nolan has almost become a brand much like Bruckheimer, Emmerich, Spielberg, etc. among fanboys. I think Nolan has a huge amount of good will from THE DARK KNIGHT, and people will check this film out not just because it looks good and got good reviews but because Nolan always delivers a great film.
In terms of box-office, anything below $70 m for the opening weekend will probably be called a disappointment. I was worried THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE would pose some trouble for INCEPTION, but those fears were clearly unfounded. With THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE already having burnt off two days of the few people interested in it, INCEPTION is practically opening on its own this weekend. I predict this could clear it for an $80 m opening weekend (though bigger is a real possibility).
The reviews keep saying it is a film that demands and deserve to be seen multiple times, so I am hopeful that this film will easily glide over $300 m and settle somewhere around $350 m. SALT is its only real competition for the rest of the summer. It would be awesome if the number one film and number two film of 2010 at the box-office were TOY STORY 3 and INCEPTION.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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rolotomasi99
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It is almost here! 
:p :p
INCEPTION is a few days away.
However, first we have to deal with THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE which has decided to crowd in on INCEPTION's turf. This alone makes me hope it is a big flop, but I know that will probably not happen. While Bruckheimer's usual good luck at the box-office failed him for PRINCE OF PERSIA, I doubt we will be able to enjoy some schadenfreude at his expense again this summer.
If it were opening on the weekend, I would say THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE would do around $50 m. However, it will probably have a $20 m opening Wednesday followed by $10 m on Thursday and then another $30 m over the weekend. It will probably end its run with $170 m.
THE KARATE KID and THE LAST AIRBENDER will be affected the most by this new film, but the former has already made more than enough to be considered a huge success while the latter really could have used another weekend for the family-action audience to itself. Oh, well!
EDIT: Ohmyladygaga! THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE did less than $4 m on Wednesday! Has someone put a curse on Bruckheimer? Apparently Disney is panicking and now offering a deal of buy-one-get-one-free for tickets this weekend. This is delicious! I am thinking this flick will make about $30 m by the end of Sunday, and maybe a final tally of $80 m.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1279224908
:p :p INCEPTION is a few days away.
However, first we have to deal with THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE which has decided to crowd in on INCEPTION's turf. This alone makes me hope it is a big flop, but I know that will probably not happen. While Bruckheimer's usual good luck at the box-office failed him for PRINCE OF PERSIA, I doubt we will be able to enjoy some schadenfreude at his expense again this summer.
If it were opening on the weekend, I would say THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE would do around $50 m. However, it will probably have a $20 m opening Wednesday followed by $10 m on Thursday and then another $30 m over the weekend. It will probably end its run with $170 m.
THE KARATE KID and THE LAST AIRBENDER will be affected the most by this new film, but the former has already made more than enough to be considered a huge success while the latter really could have used another weekend for the family-action audience to itself. Oh, well!
EDIT: Ohmyladygaga! THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE did less than $4 m on Wednesday! Has someone put a curse on Bruckheimer? Apparently Disney is panicking and now offering a deal of buy-one-get-one-free for tickets this weekend. This is delicious! I am thinking this flick will make about $30 m by the end of Sunday, and maybe a final tally of $80 m.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1279224908
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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MovieWes
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It's still a flop. It cost $150 million to produce, but according to reports I've heard, the advertising costs were around $130 million. Still, M. Night probably lives to make another movie. I wonder if Paramount will risk a sequel.Sabin wrote:The Last Airbender is, but not as quickly as I'd expected. It dropped 57% for $17 mil. That's a pretty steep drop but I was expecting steeper. It's already cleared $100 mil. With The Sorcerer's Apprentice et al on the way, it should be out of the top ten within two weeks. That doesn't change the fact that on a $150 mil budget and at $100 mil domestic and God knows what worldwide, The Last Airbender will end up as one of M. Night's highest grossing films.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
Despicable Me opened to $60 mil. That's pretty darn good and word of mouth is very strong. It's going to have to fend off The Sorcerer's Apprentice and Dogs & Cats 2 throughout the month but it's off to a very good start. It's a reasonably inexpensive animated juggernaut ($69 mil before P&A) and people seem to really like it.
Twilight dropped 48.5% for $33 mil. It had a smaller opening and a smaller drop. At $237 mil thus far on a $68 mil budget, I'd say there's no point in complaining about comparisons to other entries in the series. It's a cash cow. You can't fix or break it.
Predators opened with $25 mil. On a $40 mil budget, that's not bad. It could have done much worse. For an R-rated summer film and the entry in a franchise over twenty years old, that's pretty good. Its thunder will be taken pretty soon but it'll continue on pretty solidly for around $75 - $100 mil.
Toy Story 3 dropped a mere 27% for $22 mil. It's the MVP of this monotonous summer and stands at $340 mil. Without adjusting for inflation, it has just surpassed Finding Nemo as PIXAR's highest grossing film. Within a month, it will stand at $400 mil. It's not stopping.
The Last Airbender is, but not as quickly as I'd expected. It dropped 57% for $17 mil. That's a pretty steep drop but I was expecting steeper. It's already cleared $100 mil. With The Sorcerer's Apprentice et al on the way, it should be out of the top ten within two weeks. That doesn't change the fact that on a $150 mil budget and at $100 mil domestic and God knows what worldwide, The Last Airbender will end up as one of M. Night's highest grossing films.
Grown-Ups stands at $111 mil on an $80 mil budget. It's another solid double for Adam Sandler.
Knight & Day is at $61 mil on a $117 mil budget. Worldwide receipts should kick it up by there's no denying that it's one of the true flops of the summer.
The Karate Kid continues to flex its muscles at $165 mil. On a $40 mil budget, it's one of the true success stories of the summer.
The A-Team is at $73 mil and seems to be headed towards closing out its run on at $80 mil domestic. On a $110 mil budget before P&A, that's not very good.
And closing out the top ten, Cyrus grabbed another million and a half after expanding to 200 screens. On a $7 mil budget (for stars and what? catering?), it'll have no problem expanding its $3 mil current take upwards.
Twilight dropped 48.5% for $33 mil. It had a smaller opening and a smaller drop. At $237 mil thus far on a $68 mil budget, I'd say there's no point in complaining about comparisons to other entries in the series. It's a cash cow. You can't fix or break it.
Predators opened with $25 mil. On a $40 mil budget, that's not bad. It could have done much worse. For an R-rated summer film and the entry in a franchise over twenty years old, that's pretty good. Its thunder will be taken pretty soon but it'll continue on pretty solidly for around $75 - $100 mil.
Toy Story 3 dropped a mere 27% for $22 mil. It's the MVP of this monotonous summer and stands at $340 mil. Without adjusting for inflation, it has just surpassed Finding Nemo as PIXAR's highest grossing film. Within a month, it will stand at $400 mil. It's not stopping.
The Last Airbender is, but not as quickly as I'd expected. It dropped 57% for $17 mil. That's a pretty steep drop but I was expecting steeper. It's already cleared $100 mil. With The Sorcerer's Apprentice et al on the way, it should be out of the top ten within two weeks. That doesn't change the fact that on a $150 mil budget and at $100 mil domestic and God knows what worldwide, The Last Airbender will end up as one of M. Night's highest grossing films.
Grown-Ups stands at $111 mil on an $80 mil budget. It's another solid double for Adam Sandler.
Knight & Day is at $61 mil on a $117 mil budget. Worldwide receipts should kick it up by there's no denying that it's one of the true flops of the summer.
The Karate Kid continues to flex its muscles at $165 mil. On a $40 mil budget, it's one of the true success stories of the summer.
The A-Team is at $73 mil and seems to be headed towards closing out its run on at $80 mil domestic. On a $110 mil budget before P&A, that's not very good.
And closing out the top ten, Cyrus grabbed another million and a half after expanding to 200 screens. On a $7 mil budget (for stars and what? catering?), it'll have no problem expanding its $3 mil current take upwards.
"How's the despair?"
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rolotomasi99
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Given how intense the advertising has been for DESPICABLE ME, anything short of a $60 m opening will be a disappointment. I think around $225 m final tally is pretty likely.
PREDATORS seems very out of place in the middle of July. Would have probably been better for August or September where it would have been a big fish in a little pond rather than just looking like the guppy that it is. Around $20 m opening, and $60 m final tally.
One more week until INCEPTION!!!!!!!!!!!
PREDATORS seems very out of place in the middle of July. Would have probably been better for August or September where it would have been a big fish in a little pond rather than just looking like the guppy that it is. Around $20 m opening, and $60 m final tally.
One more week until INCEPTION!!!!!!!!!!!
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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MovieWes
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Well, it is the first 3D film since Avatar to actually be filmed in true 3D and not converted in post, so I think that that alone could push it over the $300 million mark. It won't be the monster that Avatar was, but I think it will definitely be the big film of the holiday season. I'm calling $375 million.rolotomasi99 wrote:You think TRON LEGACY is going to break $300 m? I would love for that to be true, but I think it will do about the same business as STAR TREK -- around $250 m.MovieWes wrote:I'm beginning to believe that this could be the first year in which we could see (at least) 5 $300 million grossers in one year. We already have 3 with Alice in Wonderland, Iron Man 2, and Toy Story 3, and I can totally see Inception, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, and Tron Legacy all earning north of the $300 million milestone. It is also not impossible for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse to reach it either.
Then again, I thought AVATAR was going to make around $250 m, so what the fuck do I know about what the idiot masses want out of a movie. :p
Hopefully INCEPTION and TRON LEGACY will not be too intelligent for the average moviegoer.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)