Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[OscarGuy]

They announced last year they wouldn't be announcing alphabetically since they didn't want people to know just how many Best Picture nominees there were.

I always alphabetize titles without the articles as long as I know the language well enough to recognize there is an article.

I'm not sure what to think about The Hobbit at this point. The premiere in NZ was a hit apparently, but again these audiences are pre-selected for being friendly to the cause.

[The Original BJ]

It will be a very amusing 10 seconds during the reading of the Oscar nominations when "Les Miz" doesn't show up in between "Argo - Django" and "Life of Pi - Lincoln". The sound you'll hear are thousands of fainting, inconsolable fans.

Although last year they didn't read the Best Picture nominees alphabetically...

[Sonic Youth]

It will be a very amusing 10 seconds during the reading of the Oscar nominations when "Les Miz" doesn't show up in between "Argo - Django" and "Life of Pi - Lincoln". The sound you'll hear are thousands of fainting, inconsolable fans.

[Big Magilla]

Not necessarily according to the Chicago Manual of Style Online:

Q. We are alphabetizing a list of Broadway musical titles and are wondering how we should deal with titles in French that begin with articles (La Cage aux Folles and Les Misérables). We are leaning toward alphabetizing under the article as you suggest for place names.

A. In a work intended for a general audience—where readers are likely to think of these titles with their articles (La Cage, Les Miz)—it is acceptable to alphabetize under the article. But in a more specialized work, or in a work intended for readers who are likely to be well-versed in the languages of any foreign titles mentioned in the text, it is usually better to ignore the articles that begin titles (in English and in other languages) when alphabetizing (see 16.48, 16.51, 16.52 for details). If you choose the latter route and your list is a long one, you might consider cross-referencing.

[The Original BJ]

Brief Grammar-Nazi PSA: Les Miserables is properly alphabetized under "M", in the same way that The Hobbit is alphabetized under "H" and The Sessions is alphabetized under "S"

YES!!!! THIS!!!!!! THIS IS GONNA DRIVE ME CRAZY ALL SEASON!!!!!!

[dws1982]

Brief Grammar-Nazi PSA: Les Miserables is properly alphabetized under "M", in the same way that The Hobbit is alphabetized under "H" and The Sessions is alphabetized under "S"

[rudeboy]

Okay, so I may be basing this on tweets from Tweeter, but I think a lot of people are underestimating the chances of The Hobbit. Also, I see Les Misérables becoming this years Dreamgirls.

Re The Hobbit: possibly, but I doubt it. I think Jackson would have to show us something extraordinary, and it seems to me - as one who loves LOTR and is eagerly awaiting this film - that its going to seem like more of the same. Add in the fact that many people are understandably miffed by the splitting of a 300 page novel into three movies, I don't think The Hobbit will contend beyond tech categories, But I'm ready to be proven wrong!

Les Miserables can be compared to Dreamgirls only in that it's a musical and it's the going-in presumptive supporting actress frontrunner. Otherwise in terms of epic scale, emotional resonance, cultural status of source material etc etc it stands tall above it. It's a FAR more Oscar-friendly movie. It will be nominated for a lot of Oscars - whether it can win a big haul is the only question.

[jack]

Okay, so I may be basing this on tweets from Tweeter, but I think a lot of people are underestimating the chances of The Hobbit. Also, I see Les Misérables becoming this years Dreamgirls.

[bizarre]

Precursor season is just about to start, so I’ll jump the gun and make some preliminary Oscar predictions. Usually everything changes in the first two weeks of December, but this year is interesting in that the potential for outside candidates to throw a wrench into the mix seems quite slim even at this early stage in the game. I haven’t been following this season as closely as some past ones but I still feel confident enough to call a few of these races, something I probably wouldn’t have dreamed of doing in, say, 2011 or 2009.

BEST PICTURE
“Argo” - Ben Affleck, George Clooney, Grant Heslov
* “Les Misérables” - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh
“Life of Pi” - Ang Lee, Gil Netter, David Womark
“Lincoln” - Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg
“The Master” - Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, Daniel Lupi, JoAnne Sellar
“Silver Linings Playbook” - Bruce Cohen, Donna Gigliotti, Jonathan Gordon
“Zero Dark Thirty” - Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Megan Ellison
ALTERNATIVE: “Django Unchained” - Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone, Stacey Sher
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: “Amour” (Margaret Ménégoz), “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey, Josh Penn), “Moonrise Kingdom” (Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven M. Rales, Scott Rudin), “Skyfall” (Barbara Broccoli, Michael G. Wilson), “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” (Carolynne Cunningham, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh), “The Impossible” (Belén Atienza, Álvaro Agustín, Ghislain Barrois, Enrique López Lavigne)

These nominees look pretty settled. The only question is number - “Django Unchained” is still under wraps so we’ll see if it ignites a “Basterds”-style furore. At this point, from the long shots I can only see “Moonrise Kingdom” getting the requisite number of #1 votes to secure a spot with the new rules, but even then it might be too ‘niche’ in its appeal.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, for “The Master”
Tom Hooper, for “Les Misérables”
* Ang Lee, for “Life of Pi”
David O. Russell, for “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg, for “Lincoln”
ALTERNATIVE: Kathryn Bigelow, for “Zero Dark Thirty”
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Ben Affleck (“Argo”), Wes Anderson (“Moonrise Kingdom”), Juan Antonio Bayona (“The Impossible”), Michael Haneke (“Amour”), Quentin Tarantino (“Django Unchained”), Joe Wright (“Anna Karenina”), Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)

There’s a strong pool of selection here. There’s a contingent that expect Haneke to spoil here but I think a Director lineup that breaks with the Picture slate is still very unlikely even with the new weighted rules. Anderson might be the weakest here but his film is still a critics’ cause célèbre and flashy enough to succeed.

BEST ACTOR
* Daniel Day-Lewis, in “Lincoln”
John Hawkes, in “The Sessions”
Hugh Jackman, in “Les Misérables”
Joaquin Phoenix, in “The Master”
Denzel Washington, in “Flight”
ALTERNATIVE: Bradley Cooper, in “Silver Linings Playbook”
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Matt Damon (“Promised Land”), Anthony Hopkins (“Hitchcock”), Bill Murray (“Hyde Park on Hudson”), Jean-Louis Trintignant (“Amour”)

This seems pretty solid, even at this point in the year. Cooper can switch in for Hawkes if the latter’s buzz fails to sustain itself throughout December (and I’m not sure about that - Hawkes seems like an NYFCC or even an NBR candidate). Jackman is unseen but I can’t imagine this film failing, especially with the rapturous early word. Washington, Phoenix and Day-Lewis have already proven themselves. It’s only a matter of who will win - I’m picking Day-Lewis, who I think is the kind of actor voters won’t mind handing a third statuette to.

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, in “Zero Dark Thirty”
* Jennifer Lawrence, in “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren, in “Hitchcock”
Emmanuelle Riva, in “Amour”
Quvenzhané Wallis, in “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
ALTERNATIVE: Marion Cotillard, in “Rust and Bone”
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Keira Knightley (“Anna Karenina”), Maggie Smith (“Quartet”), Meryl Streep (“Hope Springs”), Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”), Mary Elizabeth Winstead (“Smashed”)

An interesting year mainly because the selection of typical ‘Academy types’ is so sparse. We’re left with the real possibility of a 9 year-old nominee for a film she made at 6, a potential double-up on foreign-language nominees, a 22 year-old winner and the rare nomination for an actress in a political thriller. I only really have faith in Lawrence, Mirren and Wallis - the former is already setting up a steamroller if only for the dearth of legitimate winners’ competition, the second is typical filler material and the latter has been fawned over all year in the media (although the lack of SAG candidacy and, imo, the low chance of a Globe nomination are hurdles). Right now I have Riva, sight unseen, over Cotillard, whose film I have seen. This is simply a hunch - Cotillard performs well, but she doesn’t have the kind of character arc that is usually satisfying to the Academy and, despite the film’s melodrama, the role is not the usual kind for Oscar to pick from the foreign-language contingent. Chastain’s film looks to become a major awards player, but reactions suggest that her role may be too insular to win the hearts of voters. Among the other possibilities, I don’t think Knightley or Streep are quite dead yet - both seem like go-to SAG picks (I can’t imagine that organisation going for either Cotillard or Riva this year).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, in “Argo”
Robert De Niro, in “Silver Linings Playbook”
* Leonardo DiCaprio, in “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, in “The Master”
Matthew McConaughey, in “Magic Mike”
ALTERNATIVE: Tommy Lee Jones, in “Lincoln”
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Billy Connolly (“Quartet”), Dwight Henry (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”), Ewan McGregor (“The Impossible”), Eddie Redmayne (“Les Misérables”)

Most predictions I see on the internet are five-for-five past nominees or winners, which seems an odd thing to happen given that the last time this happened was in 1994’s Best Actress race (well before the internet really entered the conversation as a means of building up a profile for lesser-seen candidates). For this reason I’ve been steadfast in my McConaughey prediction for a while, but I’ll admit he’s the most vulnerable to a “Lincoln” steamroller. An ISA nomination out of the gate is promising, though. De Niro seems like a typical ‘welcome back’ thing, but his role appears to be more sidelined than those of his competition. DiCaprio has been the go-to pick for a win for most of the year, but his film hasn’t even screened - so I’ll gladly eat my words later on. Early reactions tout Eddie Redmayne as the male standout of Les Mis’ supporting cast, over Russell Crowe, but I’ll wait and see whether that train leaves the station.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, in “The Master”
Samantha Barks, in “Les Misérables”
Sally Field, in “Lincoln”
* Anne Hathaway, in “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt, in “The Sessions”
ALTERNATIVE: Maggie Smith, in “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Pauline Collins (“Quartet”), Frances McDormand (“Promised Land”), Amanda Seyfried (“Les Misérables”)

This almost seems set in stone for me, eve without precursors to validate it. The pool of selection is utterly shallow, and the closest threat to spoil at this point is Maggie Smith, who could potentially ride the coattails of her renewed HP/Downton Abbey fame to a nomination. However I have a suspicion that the Academy has grown out of giving nominations to films like “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”. Adams and Hunt will be the critics’ winners, Barks, Hathaway and Field will sweep in with the tidal wave of love for their respective awards juggernauts. I’m giving this to Anne, sight unseen - her yearlong buzz has been too strong to ignore and she’s been the focal point of all pre-release publicity for the film.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Argo” - Chris Terrio
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” - Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
* “Lincoln” - Tony Kushner
“Silver Linings Playbook” - David O. Russell
“The Sessions” - Ben Lewin
ALTERNATIVE: “Life of Pi” - David Magee
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: “Anna Karenina” (Tom Stoppard), “Cloud Atlas” (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski), “Hitchcock” (John J. McLaughlin), “Les Misérables” (William Nicholson), “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)

Slim pickings here. The question is whether smaller films like “Beasts” or “The Sessions” spark with the guilds and whether voters think that stylised films like “Life of Pi” and “Les Misérables” are as convincing as their source materials on the story side.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Amour” - Michael Haneke
“Django Unchained” - Quentin Tarantino
“Flight” - John Gatins
“Moonrise Kingdom” - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
* “The Master” - Paul Thomas Anderson
ALTERNATIVE: “Zero Dark Thirty” - Mark Boal
OTHER POSSIBILITIES: “Intouchables” (Olivier Nakache, Éric Toledano), “Magic Mike” (Reid Carolin), “Promised Land” (Matt Damon, John Krasinski), “Seven Psychopaths” (Martin McDonagh)

This has been a pretty interesting category in the past few years, typically attracting films that don’t show up elsewhere in the ‘headline’ categories. I don’t see any definite locks here nor do I see any definite ‘outs’, and winner could be a toss-up. I’ve been sticking with “The Master” for a couple months because it seems like a handy way to throw a bone to a film with a concrete base of support but little traction to succeed in the other categories, and Paul Thomas Anderson is enough of an ‘event’ director to invite questions as to how he’s yet to win an Oscar for himself.


I’ll do the rest of the races without comment, because I really can’t be bothered:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Brave” - Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
“Frankenweenie” - Tim Burton
* “ParaNorman” - Sam Butler, Chris Fell
“Rise of the Guardians” - Peter Ramsey
“Wreck-It Ralph” - Rich Moore

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Liv & Ingmar” - Dheeraj Akolkar, Rune H. Trondsen
“The Central Park Five” - Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon
“The Gatekeepers” - Dror Moreh
“The Queen of Versailles” - Lauren Greenfield, Danielle Renfrew
* “West of Memphis” - Amy Berg

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
“A Royal Affair” - Denmark
“Amour” - Austria
* “Intouchables” - France
“Lore” - Australia
“War Witch” - Canada

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Anna Karenina” - Seamus McGarvey
“Les Misérables” - Danny Cohen
* “Life of Pi” - Claudio Miranda
“Lincoln” - Janusz Kaminski
“The Master” - Mihai Malamaire, Jr.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
* “Anna Karenina” - Jacqueline Durran
“Django Unchained” - Sharen Davis
“Les Misérables” - Paco Delgado
“Lincoln” - Joanna Johnston
“Mirror Mirror” - Eiko Ishioka

BEST FILM EDITING
“Argo” - William Goldenberg
* “Les Misérables” - Chris Dickens
“Life of Pi” - Tim Squyres
“Lincoln” - Michael Kahn
“Zero Dark Thirty” - William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
“Cloud Atlas” - Heike Marker, Daniel Parker, Jeremy Woodhead
“Lincoln” - Leo Corey Castellano, Mia Kovero
* “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” - Richard Findlater, Peter King

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Anna Karenina” - Dario Marianelli
“Argo” - Alexandre Desplat
* “Life of Pi” - Mychael Danna
“Lincoln” - John Williams
“The Master” - Johnny Greenwood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
* “Brave” - ‘Touch the Sky’
“Joyful Noise” - ‘From Here to the Moon and Back’
“Lawless” - ‘Midnight Run’
“Les Misérables” - ‘Suddenly’
“Paul Williams Still Alive” - ‘Still Alive’

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Anna Karenina” - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Django Unchained” - David F. Klassen, Leslie A. Pope
* “Les Misérables” - John Botton, Eve Stewart
“Lincoln” - Rick Carter, Jim Erickson, Peter T. Frank
“Moonrise Kingdom” - Adam Stockhausen

BEST SOUND EDITING
* “Life of Pi” - Philip Stockton
“Skyfall” - Karen M. Baker, Per Hallberg
“The Avengers” - Christopher Boyes, Frank E. Eulner
“The Dark Knight Rises” - Richard King
“Zero Dark Thirty” - Paul N.J. Ottosson

BEST SOUND MIXING
* “Les Misérables” - Dominic Gibbs, Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson
“Life of Pi” - Drew Kunin
“Skyfall” - Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“Zero Dark Thirty” - Ray Beckett, Paul N.J. Ottosson

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
* “Life of Pi” - Jean-Martin Desmarais, Richard Mahon, Daryl Sawchuk, Bill Westenhofer
“Prometheus” - team TBD
“The Avengers” - Erik Nash, Colin Strause, Eric Strause, Guy Williams
“The Dark Knight Rises” - Peter Bebb, Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” - Joe Letteri, Eric Reynolds, Eric Saindon, Richard Taylor

[Sabin]

Then I shall sub Ben Lewin's nomination in the category of Best Original Screenplay for Michael Haneke's Amour.

[OscarGuy]

And the official studio push (on the screener jacket) has the screenplay down as Adapted.

[Precious Doll]

The screenplay for The Sessions is based on an article that Mark O'Brien (played by John Hawkes in the film) wrote about his experience of hiring a sex therapist. Ben Lewin also used notes that Cheryl Cohen Greene (played by Helen Hunt) had kept on Mark and all of her clients.

However, it is the article the Mark O'Brien wrote that Lewin primarily based his screenplay on and which is why it is for consideration in the adapted screenplay category.

[rudeboy]

On IMDb The Sessions only has a credit for screenwriter Ben Lewin, no source author or material listed.

[anonymous1980]

The Sessions is an ADAPTED screenplay, Sabin. Unless you know something I don't know.

[mlrg]

Great work anonymous, putting all the names in each category.

Sabin, my predicitons are the same for the top categories. I have Denzel Washington instead of Bradley Cooper and Samantha Barks for Lez Misarables instead of Jennifer Ehle for ZD30.