November 2009 Predictions

[The Original BJ]

Well, to be fair, Oprah is a PRODUCER on Precious, so it makes sense why she would be pushing the film even more than films she just simply loves.

Ethically, morally, esthetically wise – shouldn't it be exactly the opposite?

Welcome to America..

Oh come on. If you guys signed on as a producer of a film, you're honestly going to tell me with a straight face that you wouldn't promote the hell out of the thing, that, in fact, you would work to promote OTHER movies even more? Call me dim, but I'm not even remotely seeing the logic here.

[ITALIANO]

Well, to be fair, Oprah is a PRODUCER on Precious, so it makes sense why she would be pushing the film even more than films she just simply loves.

Ethically, morally, esthetically wise – shouldn't it be exactly the opposite?

Welcome to America..

[Uri]

Well, to be fair, Oprah is a PRODUCER on Precious, so it makes sense why she would be pushing the film even more than films she just simply loves.

Ethically, morally, esthetically wise – shouldn't it be exactly the opposite?

[Big Magilla]

Per both Jeff Wells and Tom O'Neil, Oscar voters are not coming out in droves for Precious. An Academy screening last Sunday was only attended by about 300 people as opposed to a full house of 1,000 for the Michael Jackson movie the week before.

Apparently Sidibe and Mo"Nique were heavily applauded but director Daniels was not.

[dws1982]

I don't think Winfrey and Perry would be eligible to be nominated even under the old rules, because they were credited (at least on IMDb) as executive producers, rather than just regular old producers, who are the ones who get Oscar nominations for Best Picture.

Perry and Winfrey only came on board and lent their names to the film after it premiered at Sundance. They decided to make the film their mission after seeing it, and it's been non-stop ever since.

[Sabin]

Unless I'm mistaken, both Tyler Perry and Oprah Winfrey are producers in the same way that Bob Yari was a producer on Crash. He didn't actually produce the film, but he was in charge of promoting it. Both Oprah and Tyler are pushing the hell out of Precious. They are in many ways making the film the phenomenon that it is, but like Yari they are both going to be ineligible as recipients of the Best Motion Picture Oscar. After Harvey Weinstein climbed to the podium for Shakespeare in Love, they've been more selective.

[The Original BJ]

Well, to be fair, Oprah is a PRODUCER on Precious, so it makes sense why she would be pushing the film even more than films she just simply loves.

[Mister Tee]

It is definitely seeping into the public consciousness.

More like "being pushed" into it. Don't underestimate the Oprah noise machine.

I love Oprah's infinite power and I'm glad she's pushing Precious into the stratosphere. Wasn't it getting plenty of buzz on its own merit after Sundance though? I don't think Oprah "pushed" the jury to give Mo'Nique, of all people, an acting award.

And I think Mariah Carey looks great in it. Why shouldn't she be getting some supporting buzz? It's not like that category is bursting at the seams with candidates.

Plenty of films have done well at Sundance and not got featured spots on NBC Nightly News, as Precious did the other night. There've also been multiple newspaper editorials on the film. This is hardly the norm for indie films in our current culture, whatever their quality.

Oprah's imprimatur has made many an unlikely book a number one best seller; I hardly think it's going out on a limb to suggest her push is playing a part in Precious getting further exposure than 99% of nonblockbuster films.

Whether it's a good or bad thing I'll decide after I've seen the film. I have to say that, upfront, the film looks like it utilizes the all-too-predictable Oprah formula: climbing through intense degradation to ultimate redemption -- the formula James Frey exploited flawlessly.

[flipp525]

It is definitely seeping into the public consciousness.

More like "being pushed" into it. Don't underestimate the Oprah noise machine.

I love Oprah's infinite power and I'm glad she's pushing Precious into the stratosphere. Wasn't it getting plenty of buzz on its own merit after Sundance though? I don't think Oprah "pushed" the jury to give Mo'Nique, of all people, an acting award.

And I think Mariah Carey looks great in it. Why shouldn't she be getting some supporting buzz? It's not like that category is bursting at the seams with candidates.



Edited By flipp525 on 1257782715

[Mister Tee]

It is definitely seeping into the public consciousness.

More like "being pushed" into it. Don't underestimate the Oprah noise machine.

[FilmFan720]

It also seems to be getting more mainstream press than any other film right now, and those coming up soon. I feel like everywhere I turn it has an article, TV blurb or commercial. It is definitely seeping into the public consciousness.

[OscarGuy]

I've been thinking for some time (and my latest predictions showed that), but Precious is a surefire Best Picture/Director nominee. Look at Crash. Who would have thought that film stood a chance, but Oprah hopped on its Bandwagon and it got nominated. No, it doesn't always work, but with good critical and public notices (77 from Metacritic, 7.5 on imdb, 87% on RT), I have a feeling this is going to be this year's big indie-in-the-race. The fact that some of these people are putting the ghastly (just because I hate her, not because I've seen the film) Mariah Carey as a potential Supporting Actress nominee suggests it has stronger footing than we may have originally surmised.

When the year first started, Mo'Nique was the only one anyone was really talking about. After seeing the trailer, I put Gabby Sibide in my list of Best Actress candidates and after all the buzz, I put it in Best Picture and Best Director. But, at this point, I don't think it can win the top or director prize.

[Sabin]

I can't help feeling everyone's jumped to assuming Freeman is going to be great simply because of subject matter. I just have an uneasy feeling about Invictus in general.

I completely agree. The movie looks deathly boring, like a route genre film elevated beyond proportions. It wouldn't surprise me if Invictus proves underwhelming. With ten nominees this year, any Eastwood film has to be in the running. Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela seems like a good enough bet for a nomination. Then again, I'm still a little mystified that Clint Eastwood lost out on an acting nomination to Brad Pitt last year.

[Mister Tee]

I don't see any reason why Mortensen would be ahead of Damon on anyone's list. It's true, as Oscar Guy has noted, that The Informant! didn't get across-the-board raves, but its reviews were way better than what I've seen for The Road. And Damon's personal reviews for The Informant! compare with anyone's this year except Firth's (he should be favored at the critics' voting).

I like Mortensen, and, were his film a success, he'd certainly be a candidate, but I haven't heard much about him giving such a transcendent performance that he'll be in the race regardless of his film's disappointment.

I can't help feeling everyone's jumped to assuming Freeman is going to be great simply because of subject matter. I just have an uneasy feeling about Invictus in general.

Meantime, Precious, by virtue of its unearthly weekend box office, jumps firmly into the best picture/director runnng. It may be the first best-seller entry in Oprah's Movie Club.

[Sabin]

I guess I was being too hard on it. I think Clooney, Firth, and Freeman are all likely. Day-Lewis is always in the hunt. Renner should be but his role isn't the kind that usually gets nominated. And I'm convinced that The Road is going to bomb. That's four so I guess I should've phrased it differently. Then Damon or Stuhlbarg for the fifth spot, two very different serious men.