My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

[mlrg]

Belfast just won the people’s choice award at the Toronto Film festival

[Sabin]

rolotomasi99 wrote
I understand your point that vehicle-based production design is unusual, but you must concede these were truly visually stunning creations. Even people who did not see the film (and given the relatively low box-office, that was the vast majority of general audiences) knew what the cars in MAD MAX: FURY ROAD looked like. It had seeped into the mainstream in a way that films rarely do these days in our balkanized pop culture.

Plus, the interior of the main big rig vehicle the heroes drive is almost as impressive as the exterior.

I’m not saying that it’s not undeserving. Given the nominees, I don’t I object to it. It’s probably my preference. But it’s a bit unusual for a winner of Best Production Design to be rewarded on the basis of on aspect of production design that has nothing to do with the sets themselves. I’m not sure there’s another winner like that.

[rolotomasi99]

OscarGuy wrote
Seriously? Did any of you watch Mad Max: Fury Road? Yes, the cars are part of production design, but so too were the various settings including the Citadel and Gas Town. And production design isn't just about sets, it's also about the overall visual look of the film. The washed out russets and tans, the faded chrome and rusted metal details. All of that is the conception of the production designer.

This point has been said below. But I stand by my point that Mad Max: Fury Road winning the Oscar for Production Design is a historically odd winner. Sci-Fi/Fantasy winners that take home this Oscar usually win for more than The Citadel and Gas Town. Show me another winner that won for cars.

I understand your point that vehicle-based production design is unusual, but you must concede these were truly visually stunning creations. Even people who did not see the film (and given the relatively low box-office, that was the vast majority of general audiences) knew what the cars in MAD MAX: FURY ROAD looked like. It had seeped into the mainstream in a way that films rarely do these days in our balkanized pop culture.

Plus, the interior of the main big rig vehicle the heroes drive is almost as impressive as the exterior.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Seriously? Did any of you watch Mad Max: Fury Road? Yes, the cars are part of production design, but so too were the various settings including the Citadel and Gas Town. And production design isn't just about sets, it's also about the overall visual look of the film. The washed out russets and tans, the faded chrome and rusted metal details. All of that is the conception of the production designer.

This point has been said below. But I stand by my point that Mad Max: Fury Road winning the Oscar for Production Design is a historically odd winner. Sci-Fi/Fantasy winners that take home this Oscar usually win for more than The Citadel and Gas Town. Show me another winner that won for cars.

My larger point was about how if Guillermo Del Toro was more accepted by the Academy then Crimson Peak probably would've been in this conversation, in retrospect, makes less sense because Pan's Labyrinth already won this award years prior. But if Del Toro was more of a mainstay, I think Crimson Peak could've elbowed at least a nomination into this crowd.

[OscarGuy]

Seriously? Did any of you watch Mad Max: Fury Road? Yes, the cars are part of production design, but so too were the various settings including the Citadel and Gas Town. And production design isn't just about sets, it's also about the overall visual look of the film. The washed out russets and tans, the faded chrome and rusted metal details. All of that is the conception of the production designer.

[Greg]

rolotomasi99 wrote
IRL, Crimson Peak missed out on Production Design nominations to a truly weird list of Production Design nominees. Yes, Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl make sense. I guess The Martian does too. But Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant? For what? The desert and the woods?

And Mad Max: Fury Road actually won.

[mlrg]

rolotomasi99 wrote
Only one Sound category these days, but otherwise I agree with your assessment. It certainly could be like THE SHAPE OF WATER, but it could also be like CRIMSON PEAK. Both were absolutely gorgeous productions in every way, but the difference between a movie being a nomination leader/Best Picture winner and a movie being completely shut-out is a thin one. It really comes down to how much they like the story.

I'm going to continue making that mistake.

After an Oscar winner is in the club, I'm not sure something like Crimson Peak quite happens right away unless the film is just roundly disliked as a whole. If Del Toro followed The Shape of Water up with Crimson Peak, I'm sure it would at least pick up nominations (or be heavily considered) down ballot. IRL, Crimson Peak missed out on Production Design nominations to a truly weird list of Production Design nominees. Yes, Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl make sense. I guess The Martian does too. But Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant? For what? The desert and the woods?

I guess the vehicles on Mad Max are part of production design so I think a nomination makes some sense, even though I loathe the film.

[Sabin]

rolotomasi99 wrote
Only one Sound category these days, but otherwise I agree with your assessment. It certainly could be like THE SHAPE OF WATER, but it could also be like CRIMSON PEAK. Both were absolutely gorgeous productions in every way, but the difference between a movie being a nomination leader/Best Picture winner and a movie being completely shut-out is a thin one. It really comes down to how much they like the story.

I'm going to continue making that mistake.

After an Oscar winner is in the club, I'm not sure something like Crimson Peak quite happens right away unless the film is just roundly disliked as a whole. If Del Toro followed The Shape of Water up with Crimson Peak, I'm sure it would at least pick up nominations (or be heavily considered) down ballot. IRL, Crimson Peak missed out on Production Design nominations to a truly weird list of Production Design nominees. Yes, Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl make sense. I guess The Martian does too. But Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant? For what? The desert and the woods?

[Big Magilla]

Nightmare Alley is not a horror movie. It is based on an acclaimed 1946 novel, previously filmed in 1947 with Tyrone Power, Joan Blondell, Ian Keith, Helen Walker, and Coleen Gray all in career or near-career highs even though some of the darker elements of the novel couldn't be filmed. With Bradley Cooper, Toni Colette, David Strathairn, Cate Blanchett, and Rooney Mara in those respective roles, nothing less is expected of them. The great unknowns are Richard Jenkins and Ron Perlman as characters who were toned down for the original film and Willem Dafoe as a character not in that version. Much is expected of Jenkins as a tycoon who takes vengeance on the protagonist when he realizes that he has been conned into believing that he will be reunited with his college sweetheart who died in a botched abortion.

Blanchett's role is allegedly considerably expanded from Walker's as the psychiatrist who turns the con on the con prompting prognosticators to expect that she will be promoted as the film's female lead. However, Colette, in Blondell's role, with a greater pull on the heartstrings is the one more likely to be the one SAG and Oscar voters go for.

I expect this one to be huge at least as far as nominations go. Wins may be a little tougher, but far from impossible.

[rolotomasi99]

If what Tee has said is correct about Dune (that its down-ballot tally could propel it into the Best Picture conversation) this looks doubly-true for Nightmare Alley. We're probably looking at nominations for Best Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing all over again for a Del Toro production. We'll see about Makeup and Visual Effects when we learn more. Which is to say: if it's any kind of good it could end up being the nomination leader.

Only one Sound category these days, but otherwise I agree with your assessment. It certainly could be like THE SHAPE OF WATER, but it could also be like CRIMSON PEAK. Both were absolutely gorgeous productions in every way, but the difference between a movie being a nomination leader/Best Picture winner and a movie being completely shut-out is a thin one. It really comes down to how much they like the story.

The trailer for NIGHTMARE ALLEY makes it look more horror than romantic fantasy. Horror films only seem to breakthrough to Best Picture when they have a whiff of high brow legitimacy through the nebulous label of psychological thriller (THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS, GET OUT, BLACK SWAN) or are such huge blockbusters the Academy cannot help but love them (THE EXORCIST, JAWS, THE SIXTH SENSE). Since I doubt NIGHTMARE ALLEY is going to be a blockbuster, it will have to lean heavily on the psychological part of its horror thrills.

I really hope the great female cast are more than just eye candy and dead bodies. I would probably be even more excited to see it if Blanchett were the lead rather than Cooper. Still, it does look gorgeous, and will probably be the only serious contender against DUNE in most of the (so-called) tech categories.

[Sabin]

mlrg wrote
I don’t really like to make predictions based on trailers and wasn’t even aware that Willem Dafoe was on this but can this give him the routine best supporting actor lifetime overdue Oscar?

Maybe. Sci-fi/fantasy doesn't seem to work out much for actors winning Academy Awards. I'm sure there are some examples to the contrary (most involve people playing Joker) but a nomination? Sure. He's certainly on a roll with two nominations in the last four years. He'll also be present in Spider-Man: No Way Home.

[mlrg]

I don’t really like to make predictions based on trailers and wasn’t even aware that Willem Dafoe was on this but can this give him the routine best supporting actor lifetime overdue Oscar?

[Sabin]

Back in 2017, I thought early on The Shape of Water might be some kind of contender just by virtue of the scale of its production as well as a theory that a spoonful of nostalgia might help the fantasy/sci-fi go down. So would the impossible romance angle. I wasn't much of a fan of the film so I dismissed its chances of winning after seeing it. It wasn't until the day or two before the ceremony that I switched my vote from Three Billboards... to The Shape of Water due to the perception of a somewhat open-ish race, the nature of the ballot, and all those thirteen nominations. But I haven't really given Nightmare Alley much thought this year.

Well, the Oscar year still seems a bit on the empty side and the Nightmare Alley teaser just dropped and this film looks like it could at least match The Shape of Water's nomination tally.

I haven't seen the original. I don't really see any reason why your average Academy voter would vote for it outside of escapism. But it looks like an absolutely gorgeous production. If what Tee has said is correct about Dune (that its down-ballot tally could propel it into the Best Picture conversation) this looks doubly-true for Nightmare Alley. We're probably looking at nominations for Best Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing all over again for a Del Toro production. We'll see about Makeup and Visual Effects when we learn more. Which is to say: if it's any kind of good it could end up being the nomination leader.

[rolotomasi99]

Soggy Bottom is now called Licorice Pizza

For now. It might be called something else by the time it actually opens.

I thought nothing could top PUNCH DRUNK LOVE, but this movie has (unofficially) had two of the worst titles I have ever heard for a movie!

[rolotomasi99]

My gut tells me:
- Olivia Colman will be nominated for The Lost Daughter. Olivia Colman will also basically be nominated for everything she does from here on out.

- I'm skeptical about Jennifer Hudson for Respect. I have a feeling the film will be forgotten.

I had Colman on my prefix list since I first read about the role at the beginning of the year, but I swapped her out for Hudson right before I posted it. I just feel like there is a certain cohort of voters in the acting branch who will respond to her playing Aretha. The movie may have not been a hit like A STAR IS BORN, but it made more money than other smaller budget films with big movie stars like STILLWATER and THOSE WHO WISH ME DEAD.

The reviews for Colman have been wonderful so hopefully she can breakthrough. I will probably be adding her back to my next round of predictions.