November 2009 Predictions

[ITALIANO]

With a popular favorite like Jeff Bridges having a real shot at finally taking home a Best Actor Oscar, it's not inconceivable that AMPAS would want to award a female equivalent in popualrity as well.

You know that this doesnt make sense, don't you?

[Sabin]

I really don't think Sandra Bullock will be nominated. I really don't.

[Big Magilla]

I'm beginning to think Sandra Bullock might actually have a shot this year. Generally favorable reviews, especially for her performance, for the week's no. 2 film at the box office behind the phenomenon that is New Moon in a year in which there are few alternatives.

Everyone is predicting Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep and Mirren without much enthusiasm for any of them. With a popular favorite like Jeff Bridges having a real shot at finally taking home a Best Actor Oscar, it's not inconceivable that AMPAS would want to award a female equivalent in popualrity as well.

I don't expect her to win any of the critics awards but if she takes the Globe, watch out.

[rudeboy]

I like to take my first stab while it's still early enough for the odd bit of wishful thinking so here goes.

Picture
(500) Days of Summer
Crazy Heart
An Education
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Star Trek
Up in the Air
The White Ribbon

Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Scott Cooper, Crazy Heart
Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lone Scherfig, An Education

Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Actress
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Melanie Laurent, Inglorious Basterds
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education

Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, Crazy Heart
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christopher Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Adapted Screenplay
Crazy Heart
An Education
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air

Cinematography
Antichrist
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
The White Ribbon



Edited By rudeboy on 1258737296

[Big Magilla]

I slightly revised my predictions - replacing Avatar with A Serious Man in Best Picture.

I'm also getting nervous about Nine and The Lovely Bones, but not nervous enough to yank them out of my predictions, besides which, what would I replace them with? The big unknown is still Invictus. I'm guessing it will be nominated even if it is only marginally good because, like Gandhi and Chariots of Fire, it's a film that's "good for you".

I still like Up in the Air for the win.

[Heksagon]

It's already late November, so I feel that I really need to start making some predictions now.

Picture:

An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Director:

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Actor:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Actress:

Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Supporting Actor:

Matt Damon, Invictus
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress:

Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anne Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man



Edited By Heksagon on 1258707899

[Sonic Youth]

There is indeed talk about Bullock in that schmaltzy-looking salvation-through-football movie (which is based on a highly-regarded non-fiction book) -- though not yet from reputable sources.

That will not happen. That movie looks terrible. I read it when I was a reader and wow, is it schmaltzy! I will be astonished if anybody speak of it in a month.

Having seen the trailer for "The Blind Side" several times as well as countless television spots in the past week or so, I'm predicting it will wag lots of tongues over its condescending portrayal of stereotypes in the guise of racial enlightenment. Oh, thank you, upper class white woman! Thank you for extending your charitable goodness to the big, harmless, slightly dopey black man. Makes us all feel good about ourselves, don't it?

No Oscar noms for this. I don't care how weak the year may be. No year can be weak enough to include it or Bullock.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1258004616

[ITALIANO]

BJ, it's best to leave these anti-American rants alone. We don't need another post hijacked for page upon page on the subject of European vs. American ethics.

Suffice it to say that "self praise stinks" and if Oprah were ethically pure (morals have nothing to do with it and esthetics went out the window for her a long time ago), she would let others praise the film while she smiles demurely and feigns modesty.

Speaking for myself, I wasn't being anti American at all

True. I am the anti-American one, and VERY proudly so.

[The Original BJ]

Okay, now I see the point Uri and Magilla are making: Oprah's certainly not being selfless here. Agreed. But as someone who is currently trying to promote a film I've made anywhere possible, I guess I see less of a problem with a producer promoting her own project wherever she can.

But now I at least get what you guys are saying.

[Uri]

BJ, it's best to leave these anti-American rants alone. We don't need another post hijacked for page upon page on the subject of European vs. American ethics.

Suffice it to say that "self praise stinks" and if Oprah were ethically pure (morals have nothing to do with it and esthetics went out the window for her a long time ago), she would let others praise the film while she smiles demurely and feigns modesty.

Speaking for myself, I wasn't being anti American at all – if anything, I was anti youth, and the fact that you and I, based on your comments here, seem to be quite totally in synch, only reinforce it.

[Mister Tee]

Hal Holbrook (is his film even getting an Oscar qualifying run

It opened this past weekend here in NY. The Times didn't even assign one of its top-tier critics to review it, and it had a gross under $10,000 at its one theatre. I think it's dead.

[dws1982]

Hal Holbrook (is his film even getting an Oscar qualifying run?)

It was released last week in New York. Opens in Los Angeles on November 20.

[Big Magilla]

OK, I updated my predictions (See original post).

I have left the Best Picture and Supporting Actress candidates as is, but have joined the bandwagon for Jeff Bridges, Stanley Tucci and Christoph Waltz and have jumped back on the bandwagon for Daniel-Day Lewis, Saoirse Ronan and Rob Marshall. Gone are Lee Daniels (Precious remains a strong contender in other categories), Hal Holbrook (is his film even getting an Oscar qualifying run?), Robert De Niro (very mixed reviews for Everybody's Fine), Brenda Blethyn (OK, OK) and Alec Baldwin (looks terrible in the trailer for It's Complicated). While Bridges is now in among my Best Actor candidates for Crazy Heart he is no longer among my supporting potentials for The Men Who Stare at Goats.

While I'm not ready to predict winners, Up in the Air does look like the one to beat. The trailer is very winning and the theme of job layoffs is something everyone can relate to these days - we have all either lost our jobs, know someone (probably quite a few) people who have lost their jobs, or are in fear of losing our jobs. It's topical and appears to have been handled just right.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1257952462

[Big Magilla]

BJ, it's best to leave these anti-American rants alone. We don't need another post hijacked for page upon page on the subject of European vs. American ethics.

Suffice it to say that "self praise stinks" and if Oprah were ethically pure (morals have nothing to do with it and esthetics went out the window for her a long time ago), she would let others praise the film while she smiles demurely and feigns modesty.

[Uri]

Ethically, morally, esthetically wise – shouldn't it be exactly the opposite?

Welcome to America..

Oh come on. If you guys signed on as a producer of a film, you're honestly going to tell me with a straight face that you wouldn't promote the hell out of the thing, that, in fact, you would work to promote OTHER movies even more? Call me dim, but I'm not even remotely seeing the logic here.

I'm not going to call you anything, but no, if one is the influential host of a popular talk show, one is not suppose to use that show to promote projects he or she are involved with. Simple as that. The fact it's done doesn't make it acceptable. Martha Stewart is not an acceptable role model. Simple as that.