First Post-SAG Predictions

[Hollywood Z]

And with the unprecidented (and sometimes confusing) support that Crash got in 2005, one can definitely say that Academy members love to prove themselves as champions of racial tolerance and would do so if only as a way of saying "oh, look, we're politically correct and progressive." There's a big slice of that in both the Academy, Hollywood and the media, so I could definitely see a negative campaign get mounted against Henson and support quickly going to Davis.

[OscarGuy]

not enough to swing an entire category to one person victory, however, with the increased presence of minority candidates in recent years, it has also swollen minority membership in the Academy. But that's why I say that if anyone's going to benefit from a swing of black voters, it would be Davis.

[rolotomasi99]

I think what really killed Taraji's chances at the Oscar was that she had no major Oscar-moment scenes. Sure she had a lot of Mammy stuff, but it may come off to a number of voters, especially black voters, as too similar to Hattie McDaniel/Queenie in Gone With the Wind and the archetype that has been perpetuated since that film came out. Matter of fact, I wouldn't doubt if black voters rallied around Davis' name giving her a shot at pulling a Beatrice Straight.

excuse my ignorance on the demographics of the academy, but are there seriously enough living black members to swing a win toward a certain nominee in any category -- particularly an acting category?

[FilmFan720]

however, the academy could have done a little more than just have harrison ford say thanks -- some sort of prepared statement for ford to read would have been nice.

Remember, though, that the Polanski win was a pretty big shocker. It was supposed to be DGA winner Rob Marshall or long-awaited Martin Scorsese. Had Polanski been viewed as a serious contender, you can bet that there would have been something prepared. I think they will have to prepare something for Ledger, since everyone agrees he has a strong fighting chance at least.

[OscarGuy]

I don't think Viola Davis will win for the simple fact that her, albeit good, performance is all too brief. We don't have those kind of supporting winners these days. Amy Adams has more of a shot at a win than Davis does. This could all change if Davis manages to win the big-name-friendly SAG award or the GG award. And while I don't think Penelope Cruz is very likely winner, I'd put her ahead of Davis to win.

I think what really killed Taraji's chances at the Oscar was that she had no major Oscar-moment scenes. Sure she had a lot of Mammy stuff, but it may come off to a number of voters, especially black voters, as too similar to Hattie McDaniel/Queenie in Gone With the Wind and the archetype that has been perpetuated since that film came out. Matter of fact, I wouldn't doubt if black voters rallied around Davis' name giving her a shot at pulling a Beatrice Straight.

Right now, a lot depends on the contenders. If Kate Winslet ends up in Supporting, I could see her winning quite easily for one reason: Hers is a lead role in a Supporting guise. Most of the recent winners have either been second banana to the lead actor of the piece and been mostly their equal (Gay Harden, Zeta-Jones, Weisz) or have been a lead performance hiding in the lower categories (Hudson). Three are truly supporting performances this decade (Swinton, Zellweger, Connelly) and even these had big Oscar moments that looked good to Oscar voters.

You would have to go back to Judi Dench to find the first time in 20 years that a short performance won an Oscar in the Supporting Actress category. And it could be argued that Dench won b/c she was a big name who had gotten a lot of attention as an Actress in the years leading up to and including that one. She was the aging actress who time had almost forgotten until her surge in popularity after Mrs. Brown. Some might even say that film was a major part of the reason she won for Shakespeare in Love.

I don't see Davis winning. I don't see Hanson winning. I could easily see Winslet winning and, with such competition in the lead category, I could see her a double winner. It would be one for the record books, which might appeal to record-happy voters. The only voters it wouldn't work with are the ones who believe they should spread the wealth and will pick one of the two to honor as opposed to both.

[Penelope]

I disagree rather strongly, Magilla. I didn't think about Henson any beyond her scenes, it's a likable performance, but not very deep, not anything that lingers. Davis, on the other hand, takes over the movie in her one scene and owns it: I wanted to know more about her and it is she that lingers long after the movie is over.

And, I'm sorry, especially considering my adoration of The Goddess, but I really don't think Winslet will win Supporting for The Reader, or even be nominated in this category. On the one hand, it's so clearly a Lead role I just don't see any rational voter placing her there, and second, Harvey's behind the scenes behavior smacks of Oscar bait desperation.

I don't even think Cruz would be the beneficiary: I think Viola Davis is going to win.



Edited By Penelope on 1230910388

[Big Magilla]

Henson barely has a part! I don't think she has a close up even.

I believe she does, but more importantly her character resonates through much of the film. She comes across as a very real flesh and blood character. You miss her when she not there unlike, say, Viola Davis' character in Doubt. Though Davis gives a very fine performance, probably the best in the film in just one scene, her character seems more like a writer's invention than a real person and you don't think about her beyond that scene.

I haven't seen Vicky Cristina Barcelona yet, but I've heard both good and bad things about Penelope Cruz's character/performance so I don't quite know how to assess her chances.

I haven't seen The Wrestler yet, either, but I seriously doubt they're ready to hand Marisa Tomei another Oscar. Rosemarie DeWitt's chances are slim. Even if they nominate her, she won;t win unless Anne Hathaway wins as well and right now I'd say Hathaway's chances are not too good.

Amy Adams is a probable nominee but not a very strong contender.

If Winslet is nominated here, she'll win. If not, it's a wide open race that I think Henson has a good chance of winning.

[Eric]

Records are made to be broken. If not this year, then some year, and soon.

Why? The number of available categories has remained basically consistent for decades running. If anything, the elimination of B&W/color distinctions has made it more difficult to tie nomination/win records.

I'll be seeing Benjamin Button tomorrow, so I'll be able to make a more subjective prediction about the sort of unimpeachable Oscar-pleasing qualities it does or does not possess that would lead to unprecedented acclaim.

[Sabin]

I think that even if Winslet doesn't win the Golden Globe, she's very likely to win the Oscar. Hathaway could potentially win the Golden Globe due to their habits of honoring rising stars and Hawkins is destined to win the Comedic/Musical award, but voters are probably going to write Winslet down for Revolutionary Road. It's just a hunch but I think that because she's likely to win the Golden Globe for Best Actress, she's going to give an incredibly charming acceptance speech that will make people wonder why the hell she hasn't have twice over by now. That will solidify her as the front-runner and probably for lead.

I bet that Harvey is wishing that he pushed The Reader until next year by now. Penelope Cruz still looks very strong and that Vicky Cristina Barcelona is curiously getting Woody Allen more citations than any film of his since Bullets over Broadway is baffling to me.

[The Original BJ]

I think Henson is a kick, but like Marisa Tomei (and Rosemarie DeWitt, should she survive to nominations morning), she lacks the type of big "scenes" typically needed to clench supporting trophies.

12 wins for Button seems pretty excessive to me, too. Aren't big sweeps like that reserved for runaway favorites?

[Sabin]

Henson barely has a part! I don't think she has a close up even.

[Big Magilla]

The 12 wins may be unlikely but Henson has as good a chance as anyone if Winslet isn't the spoiler in the category.

[ITALIANO]

But 12 wins?! You must be insane.

I will just say that the interesting thing about this year is that it has led some people - not only Big Magilla, even other honorable members of this board - to make the most absurd predictions since we started. And this says alot about how confused the situation still is in some categories.

But yes, Henson as Best Supporting Actress doesnt really make sense.

[Big Magilla]

I'm thinking that with no clear favorite Henson will be swept up in Button's total wins which could set a new record.

I can see Button squeaking by with a best picture win. I can even see nominations in the healthy double digits. But 12 wins?! You must be insane.

Tha'ts a little strong even for you.

Records are made to be broken. If not this year, then some year, and soon.

[Big Magilla]

The big question is will Winslet be nominated for this or Revolutionary Road, and if the latter, will she be nominated in support for the former and will she win for either or join Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter as the most nominated female acting loser at six or overtake them and have the title completely to herself with seven.

Geraldine Page beats them all having lost seven times before she won Best Actress on her eighth and final nomination for The Trip to Bountiful.

Geraldine Page held the record until she won when it reverted back to Kerr and Ritter.