First Post-SAG Predictions
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Big Magilla
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I took the "record-happy voters" bit to mean post-results. It doesn't seem likely that very many voters would vote for her in both categories, that if she does happen to win both it will be because a lot of people voted for her in lead while a lot of others voted for her in support. I don't know what the statistical odds of that happening are, but if it does I can see AMPAS board members clamoring for new rules a la the post-Barry Fitzgerald nominated both for lead and support for the same role brouhaha in order to share the wealth. They probably won't succeed in their efforts, but it could be a controversy that will last until next year's awards.
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Eric
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My issue was not with conjecture that Winslet could win twice in one night. It was with the evidence you entered in the discussion as, if not proof, then at least strategy (the "record-happy voters" bit).OscarGuy wrote:Conjecture. Not proof and not my personal belief of what will happen. It's just conjecture.
In any case, having now seen Benjamin Button, I bet the house on it not winning a record number of Oscars. Pure crazy talk. Yes it has the unobtrusive technical sheen to push the nomination tally into double digits, as Josh points out, and I think two or three acting nods probably aren't outside the realm of possibility either (I think Blanchett would be the most likely were her category not so crowded). But this movie simply does not have the uncomplicated, extroverted populist appeal that every other movie within earshot of record tallies shares. Ben-Hur, Titanic, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, West Side Story ... these are all movies that wear their credentials on their sleeves. The overall meaning one gets from Benjamin Button, for better or worse (I'd argue a little of either), is far more elusive.
Plus a lot of people think it's long and boring.
I believe the character.Big Magilla wrote:Penelope wrote:I disagree rather strongly, Magilla. I didn't think about Henson any beyond her scenes, it's a likable performance, but not very deep, not anything that lingers. Davis, on the other hand, takes over the movie in her one scene and owns it: I wanted to know more about her and it is she that lingers long after the movie is over.
Davis' character is employed as a cleaning woman, a low paying, low profile job in which she probably doesn't utter two words all day, most days. Then she goes home and sits silently by while her husband beats her son, yet when confronted by the towering figure of this dragon of a nun she has the gumption to go toe to toe with her and outsmart her in the bargain. Good performance, unbelievable character.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
Interesting. I don't think I've seen this theory laid out before, but it's quite plausible.Big Magilla wrote:I suspect what happened was that more people voted for him for The Departed than Blood Diamond but some of them voted for him in lead and some in support. There are two Academy rules at work here. One says that a performer who has enough votes to be considered for a nomination in any particular category can only be nominated for one, so the film for which he receives the fewer votes in that category is not counted. Secondly, if a performer has voted for the same film in two separate caategories, only the votes in the category for which he received the larger number of votes counts. If he recived more votes in lead than in support for The Departed then he couldn't be nominated in support even if he received more votes than any other actor in that category.
Thought I'd play with some (out of thin air) numbers. He could have gotten 199 votes for his Departed role, and still lost out for that performance if he'd gotten 101 votes for his Blood Diamond role, if the breakdown of his Departed votes were 100 lead, 99 supporting.
The preferential voting thing makes it even more potentially muddy. No wonder there are surprises...
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Big Magilla
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Davis' character is employed as a cleaning woman, a low paying, low profile job in which she probably doesn't utter two words all day, most days. Then she goes home and sits silently by while her husband beats her son, yet when confronted by the towering figure of this dragon of a nun she has the gumption to go toe to toe with her and outsmart her in the bargain. Good performance, unbelievable character.Penelope wrote:I disagree rather strongly, Magilla. I didn't think about Henson any beyond her scenes, it's a likable performance, but not very deep, not anything that lingers. Davis, on the other hand, takes over the movie in her one scene and owns it: I wanted to know more about her and it is she that lingers long after the movie is over.
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OscarGuy
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Here's the difference, FilmFan, the question wasn't "what's improbable in this race". The question posed was "could she win two Oscars". So, I hypothesized that she could. I didn't cite how probable or improbable it was because that wasn't the question. I cited the answer of the perfect storm for why she could be.
I don't feel I should be criticized for responding to a specific question.
And who would have ever thought Sigourney Weaver wouldn't win one of the two awards she was nominated for. Every other Lead/Supporting nominee in history had picked up one of the two awards. So, it was improbable that she would lose, but she did, in fact, lose both awards. So, the same thing could be said here. Sure no one's ever won both trophies, but it could still happen. Again. Conjecture. Not proof and not my personal belief of what will happen. It's just conjecture.
I don't feel I should be criticized for responding to a specific question.
And who would have ever thought Sigourney Weaver wouldn't win one of the two awards she was nominated for. Every other Lead/Supporting nominee in history had picked up one of the two awards. So, it was improbable that she would lose, but she did, in fact, lose both awards. So, the same thing could be said here. Sure no one's ever won both trophies, but it could still happen. Again. Conjecture. Not proof and not my personal belief of what will happen. It's just conjecture.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Big Magilla
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The thing is that in the past actors and actresses nominated in both categories for the most part had a clear lead in one film and a clear or fuzzy supporting role in the other.
Leonardo DiCaprio was the frist clear lead to be campaigned for support in The Departed. The campaign backfired and he failed to be nominated in either category but was nominated for his lesser performance in Blood Diamond in lead.
I suspect what happened was that more people voted for him for The Departed than Blood Diamond but some of them voted for him in lead and some in support. There are two Academy rules at work here. One says that a performer who has enough votes to be considered for a nomination in any particular category can only be nominated for one, so the film for which he receives the fewer votes in that category is not counted. Secondly, if a performer has voted for the same film in two separate caategories, only the votes in the category for which he received the larger number of votes counts. If he recived more votes in lead than in support for The Departed then he couldn't be nominated in support even if he received more votes than any other actor in that category.
Kate Winslet could suffer the same consequences, but maybe not. I do think, however, that she will receive a sizeable number of votes for The Reader in lead, but perhaps not as many as for Revolutionary Road. She could also benefit from consolation supporting votes thrown her way for The Reader by voters who prefer Sally Hawkins, Anne Hathaway or Meryl Streep for lead.
We shall see what we shall see.
Leonardo DiCaprio was the frist clear lead to be campaigned for support in The Departed. The campaign backfired and he failed to be nominated in either category but was nominated for his lesser performance in Blood Diamond in lead.
I suspect what happened was that more people voted for him for The Departed than Blood Diamond but some of them voted for him in lead and some in support. There are two Academy rules at work here. One says that a performer who has enough votes to be considered for a nomination in any particular category can only be nominated for one, so the film for which he receives the fewer votes in that category is not counted. Secondly, if a performer has voted for the same film in two separate caategories, only the votes in the category for which he received the larger number of votes counts. If he recived more votes in lead than in support for The Departed then he couldn't be nominated in support even if he received more votes than any other actor in that category.
Kate Winslet could suffer the same consequences, but maybe not. I do think, however, that she will receive a sizeable number of votes for The Reader in lead, but perhaps not as many as for Revolutionary Road. She could also benefit from consolation supporting votes thrown her way for The Reader by voters who prefer Sally Hawkins, Anne Hathaway or Meryl Streep for lead.
We shall see what we shall see.
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FilmFan720
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Yes, and Richard Jenkins could come out and win Best Actor. Or Michael Sheen could get a nomination for Best Actor. Or Milk could get 4 Supporting Actor nods. There are many things in the extreme realm of possibility that could happen, but no one in their right mind suggests that they could because there is no precedent and no real reasoning behind them. They are so improbably that they border on impossible. I think anyone winning two acting Oscars in one night is that case. I am with Marco on this one.
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OscarGuy
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Let me explain a little word "could". I know you have a hard time believing in something that isn't absolute, but sometimes there are things that are possible, just improbable. I've tried to tell you this in the past, but you just ignore me.
Do I think it will happen? no. In reality, I think her losing both is just as likely as her winning one of the trophies with winning both a very big long shot. However, there is always the possibility of a perfect storm. Of course it's improbable. If anything, it's more likely voters who intend to vote for Winslet might split their votes between the two, some picking one, some picking the other and a very small number picking both. So, if those who are pro-Winslet and want her to win regardless of vehicle cannot decide which to go for, it may result in her missing out entirely.
The question will be how she fares at the big two: The Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild. If she can rally to win under one film at both groups, then momentum could build to push her to a win in that category. If they split or either or both don't give her an award, then her support is too soft to carry over to an Oscar win in either category.
But, much of this is just conjecture at this point because we don't know who the nominees are. If she does earn her 6th and 7th career nominations, at the tender age of 33, there may be a large clamoring among Academy members for recognition.
What we need now is the Oscar nominations and the Golden Globes to announce. Once we have those, we may have a better view of what's going on.
Do I think it will happen? no. In reality, I think her losing both is just as likely as her winning one of the trophies with winning both a very big long shot. However, there is always the possibility of a perfect storm. Of course it's improbable. If anything, it's more likely voters who intend to vote for Winslet might split their votes between the two, some picking one, some picking the other and a very small number picking both. So, if those who are pro-Winslet and want her to win regardless of vehicle cannot decide which to go for, it may result in her missing out entirely.
The question will be how she fares at the big two: The Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild. If she can rally to win under one film at both groups, then momentum could build to push her to a win in that category. If they split or either or both don't give her an award, then her support is too soft to carry over to an Oscar win in either category.
But, much of this is just conjecture at this point because we don't know who the nominees are. If she does earn her 6th and 7th career nominations, at the tender age of 33, there may be a large clamoring among Academy members for recognition.
What we need now is the Oscar nominations and the Golden Globes to announce. Once we have those, we may have a better view of what's going on.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Eric wrote:OscarGuy wrote:I could easily see Winslet winning and, with such competition in the lead category, I could see her a double winner. It would be one for the record books, which might appeal to record-happy voters.
Keep at it, all of you. This could go down as the most ridiculous, fraught-with-logical-folly thread in UAADB history.
Yes, if we were on tv I'd think we are on some candid camera show. I mean, this CAN'T be the serious Oscar board that we used to know.
In a way I felt it. I felt that the simple prospect of Kate Winslet's double nomination - for these two movies, and in such a year - would have made even the very expert here get crazy all of a sudden.
It's possible, of course, that Kate Winslet will only be nominated for Best Actress, either for Revolutionary Road or for The Reader. But we all know that yes, shocking as it may seem, Kate Winslet could end up with two nominations (deservedly or not - I havent seen the two movies yet).
So, what will happen in this case? Let's try to be rational. First of all, let's say that IN THEORY vote-splitting - which, I showed, is impossible when it comes to the five nominees in any category - COULD damage a performer who is nominated in two different categories, BUT this theorical damage is annulled by an even-too-obvious advantage: that ordinary Academy members would feel compelled to vote for this performer in one of the two categories, whereas if this performer had had just one nod, they could have ignored him/her more easily. This will be even more true for an actress like Kate Winslet, whom the Academy obviously loves and respects.
Yet, for once, this doesn't mean that things will be very simple anyway. Traditionally (though of course there have been exceptions) the easiest thing would be to throw votes to Winslet in the Best Supporting Actress race. And if the other nominees were more or less on the same level, Winslet could easily triumph over them. But this time there is a nominee - Penelope Cruz - who is so clearly a "perfect" Supporting Actress winner, and who will get so many votes, that Winslet will truly have to be MUCH loved to emerge as the winner here. This could still happen - this is, after all, a Holocaust movie, and Winslet's role is a big, showy one - even too big probably: the fact that to many it will seem to be more Leading than Supporting could also, as Penelope pointed out, work against it.
In the Best Actress race, things would seem to be easier. If this were last year or the year before, Winslet wouldnt have a chance, but we must admit that since there doesnt seem to be, at least till now, a clear frontrunner, she could profit from that and end up winning. The problem here is her movie - Revolutionary Road doesnt seem to be the strong, undefeatable vehicle most of her fans hoped it would be. So it could be Mery Streep or even Anne Hathaway whom we will see smiling on the podium.
So one Oscar for her would be very possible. None, also, unfortunately, possible. Two Oscars - NEVER.
Edited By ITALIANO on 1230934147
No, I think she'll likely win. If she wins the Golden Globe, she'll give a great acceptance speech and remind people to vote for her. Anne Hathaway has a good chance of winning the Golden Globe but I just don't think enough people love Rachel Getting Married. It's entirely possible that she could end up being the product of getting shot in the foot by this Reader/Road confusion but I don't think she's in trouble just yet. There is no lead in the category as of yet. We only *know* that Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway are getting nominated and then there are five or six people vying for the other spots.
As for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button's potential tally, I think it's going to very difficult for the film to not get into the double digits. Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects are damn near locks along with Picture and Director. That being said while I expect the movie to do incredibly well, I can't imagine it winning Best Picture or Director or a single acting nomination and I wouldn't be surprised if it missed out on a screenplay nod as well. Shit's long and dumb.
As for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button's potential tally, I think it's going to very difficult for the film to not get into the double digits. Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects are damn near locks along with Picture and Director. That being said while I expect the movie to do incredibly well, I can't imagine it winning Best Picture or Director or a single acting nomination and I wouldn't be surprised if it missed out on a screenplay nod as well. Shit's long and dumb.
"How's the despair?"
I'm starting to think like Okri. As much as it pains me, I don't think this is Kate's year: I don't think she'll get a Supporting nomination, and I suspect Lead will go to either Streep or Hathaway. Of course, I could change my thought process after I see Revolutionary Road tomorrow.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
1. I'd argue we're trending away from those massive records. We've had three years in a row where the most nominations for a film as been less then ten (eight, I think), and indeed, films have generally underperformed from reasonable expectations - films like Atonement, Brokeback Mountain, Dreamgirls didn't score huge nod totals like they might've been expected to. So while I can imagine a film that seems to heavy on the techs as Curious Case of Benjamin Button to do well in terms of nominations (though not quite as well as Zahveed's fifteen nominations), I'd be surprised if it managed to sweep the oscars in any meaningful way.
2. More and more I'm thinking that Winslet being snubbed in both categories is more plausible then being nodded in both categories. If you assume that Streep (based on name and bait), Hathaway (starlet does good) and Hawkins (critical reception, likely Globe win) are in, you've got Leo (who's doing far stronger in the precursor race then I anticipated), Jolie (ditto) and Scott-Thomas all vying for those two spots (and Cate Blanchett, if you believe that, and I'm not sure I do).
Meanwhile, in supporting, Davis and Cruz are comfortable, with some combination of Tomei, Adams, Henson, and Dewitt alongside Winslet are gonna make that final three.
Winslet's having campaign issues (there are a few ads for The Reader that single her out without mentioning category), category confusion, and her movies are landing weirdly. Both were tipped to be possible best picture candidates, and both have the pedigree for it, but the reviews and reception seem far too mixed. Of course, this may just be me over analyzing things, but seeing her snubbed entirely wouldn't surprise me.
2. More and more I'm thinking that Winslet being snubbed in both categories is more plausible then being nodded in both categories. If you assume that Streep (based on name and bait), Hathaway (starlet does good) and Hawkins (critical reception, likely Globe win) are in, you've got Leo (who's doing far stronger in the precursor race then I anticipated), Jolie (ditto) and Scott-Thomas all vying for those two spots (and Cate Blanchett, if you believe that, and I'm not sure I do).
Meanwhile, in supporting, Davis and Cruz are comfortable, with some combination of Tomei, Adams, Henson, and Dewitt alongside Winslet are gonna make that final three.
Winslet's having campaign issues (there are a few ads for The Reader that single her out without mentioning category), category confusion, and her movies are landing weirdly. Both were tipped to be possible best picture candidates, and both have the pedigree for it, but the reviews and reception seem far too mixed. Of course, this may just be me over analyzing things, but seeing her snubbed entirely wouldn't surprise me.
BEST PICTURE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
BEST DIRECTOR:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - David Fincher
The Dark Knight - Christopher Nolan
Frost/Nixon - Ron Howard
Milk - Gus Van Sant
Slumdog Millionaire - Danny Boyle
BEST ACTOR:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Brad Pitt
Frost/Nixon - Frank Langella
Milk - Sean Penn
Revolutionary Road - Leonardo DiCaprio
The Wrestler - Mickey Rourke
BEST ACTRESS:
Changeling - Angelina Jolie
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Cate Blanchett
Doubt - Meryl Streep
Rachel Getting Married - Anne Hathaway
Revolutionary Road - Kate Winslet
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
The Dark Knight - Heath Ledger
Doubt - Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Milk - James Franco
Slumdog Millionaire - Dave Patel
Tropic Thunder - Robert Downey, Jr.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Tarij P. Henson
Doubt - Amy Adams
Doubt - Viola Davis
Vicky Christina Barcelona - Penelope Cruz
The Wrestler - Marisa Tomei
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Burn After Reading
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
BEST EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Fall
The Reader
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
BEST MAKEUP:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
BEST SOUND MIXING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Mama Mia!
Wall-E
BEST SOUND EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:
Horton Hears a Who
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
BEST DIRECTOR:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - David Fincher
The Dark Knight - Christopher Nolan
Frost/Nixon - Ron Howard
Milk - Gus Van Sant
Slumdog Millionaire - Danny Boyle
BEST ACTOR:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Brad Pitt
Frost/Nixon - Frank Langella
Milk - Sean Penn
Revolutionary Road - Leonardo DiCaprio
The Wrestler - Mickey Rourke
BEST ACTRESS:
Changeling - Angelina Jolie
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Cate Blanchett
Doubt - Meryl Streep
Rachel Getting Married - Anne Hathaway
Revolutionary Road - Kate Winslet
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
The Dark Knight - Heath Ledger
Doubt - Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Milk - James Franco
Slumdog Millionaire - Dave Patel
Tropic Thunder - Robert Downey, Jr.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Tarij P. Henson
Doubt - Amy Adams
Doubt - Viola Davis
Vicky Christina Barcelona - Penelope Cruz
The Wrestler - Marisa Tomei
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Burn After Reading
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
BEST EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Fall
The Reader
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
BEST MAKEUP:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
BEST SOUND MIXING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Mama Mia!
Wall-E
BEST SOUND EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:
Horton Hears a Who
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
"It's the least most of us can do, but less of us will do more."
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Eric
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OscarGuy wrote:I could easily see Winslet winning and, with such competition in the lead category, I could see her a double winner. It would be one for the record books, which might appeal to record-happy voters.
Keep at it, all of you. This could go down as the most ridiculous, fraught-with-logical-folly thread in UAADB history.