BAFTAs

[OscarGuy]

Emma Thompson is the Meryl Streep of the BAFTAs (If Meryl wasn't already the Meryl Streep of the BAFTAs). 6 nominations for Best Actress, 1 nomination for Best Supporting Actress, and 1 nomination for screenwriting. She has 3, 1, and 1 at the Oscars. Love Actually and Saving Mr. Banks didn't translate to the Oscars, so I doubt Good Luck to You will either.

As to the rest, I'm still working on my final predictions, but I'm not sure these change them. While there is some overlap with BAFTA, the Academy's membership has been growing dramatically with more American and international members and I don't know that BAFTA has overcome its heavy British Isles tilt yet. Let's also remember that their nominating committees are small and so the acting slates may be unrepresentative. But Women Talking also takes a bit of a hit. It needed more from BAFTA than it got, so I suppose Sarah Polley's film is fading at the wrong time once again.

That English actress Andrea Riseborough couldn't make it onto this list suggests that the last-minute buzz for To Leslie is probably just a mirage and if it is as well liked as people say, then their marketing efforts are probably too little too late.

[Mister Tee]

The other categories:

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
AFTERSUN Charlotte Wells (Writer/Director)
BLUE JEAN Georgia Oakley (Writer/Director), Hélène Sifre (Producer)
ELECTRIC MALADY Marie Lidén (Director)
GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE Katy Brand (Writer)
REBELLION Maia Kenworthy (Director)

DOCUMENTARY
ALL THAT BREATHES Shaunak Sen, Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann
ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons
FIRE OF LOVE Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, Ina Fichman
MOONAGE DAYDREAM Brett Morgan
ADVERTISING
NAVALNY Daniel Roher, Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae

ANIMATED FILM
GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON Dean Fleisher Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey
PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH Joel Crawford, Mark Swift
TURNING RED Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins

ORIGINAL SCORE
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Volker Bertelmann
BABYLON Justin Hurwitz
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Carter Burwell
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Son Lux
GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Alexandre Desplat

CASTING
AFTERSUN Lucy Pardee
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Simone Bär
ELVIS Nikki Barrett, Denise Chamian
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Sarah Halley Finn
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Pauline Hansson

CINEMATOGRAPHY
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT James Friend
THE BATMAN Greig Fraser
ELVIS Mandy Walker
EMPIRE OF LIGHT Roger Deakins
TOP GUN: MAVERICK Claudio Miranda

EDITING
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Sven Budelmann
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
ELVIS Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Paul Rogers
TOP GUN: MAVERICK Eddie Hamilton

PRODUCTION DESIGN
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Christian M. Goldbeck, Ernestine Hipper
BABYLON Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
THE BATMAN James Chinlund, Lee Sandales
ELVIS Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn
GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Curt Enderle, Guy Davis

COSTUME DESIGN
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lisy Christl
AMSTERDAM J.R. Hawbaker, Albert Wolsky
BABYLON Mary Zophres
ELVIS Catherine Martin
MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS Jenny Beavan

MAKE UP & HAIR
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Heike Merker
THE BATMAN Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, Zoe Tahir
ELVIS Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, Shane Thomas
ROALD DAHL’S MATILDA THE MUSICAL Naomi Donne, Barrie Gower, Sharon Martin
THE WHALE Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, Adrien Morot

SOUND
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lars Ginzsel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, Markus Stemler
ADVERTISING
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, Gwendoyln Yates Whittle
ELVIS Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, Wayne Pashley
TÁR Deb Adair, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley, Steve Single, Roland Winke
TOP GUN: MAVERICK Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, Mark Weingarten

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller, Frank Petzoid
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon
THE BATMAN Russell Earl, Dan Lemmon, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Benjamin Brewer, Ethan Feldbau, Jonathan Kombrinck, Zak Stoltz
TOP GUN: MAVERICK Seth Hill, Scott R. Fisher, Bryan Litson, Ryan Tudhope

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE Peter Baynton, Charlie Mackesy, Cara Speller, Hannah Minghella
MIDDLE WATCH John Stevenson, Aiesha Penwarden, Giles Healy
YOUR MOUNTAIN IS WAITING Hannah Jacobs, Zoe Muslim, Harriet Gillian

BRITISH SHORT FILM
THE BALLAD OF OLIVE MORRIS Alex Kayode-Kay
BAZIGAGA Jo Ingabire Moys, Stephanie Charmail
BUS GIRL Jessica Henwick, Louise Palmkvist Hansen
A DRIFTING UP Jacob Lee
AN IRISH GOODBYE Tom Berkeley, Ross White

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
Take out Carey Mulligan, and I think this is your Best Supporting Actress lineup for the Oscars.

Agreed. Only change is if Williams gets in but I’m not sure she’s going to be nominated at all at this rate.

[Sabin]

Well, I guess All Quiet on the Western Front’s hype is real. The closest thing I can find to a film doing these kinds of numbers at the BAFTA’s and not translating to an Oscar nomination is Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (11). Carol got 9 nominations but failed a nomination as well. I think the main difference is that despite its violence All Quiet… is far more accessible. I commented on Irvin’s post that I thought there were only six slots locked in with ten films fighting for the final four slots. I think a case could be made that All Quiet… is in seventh place.

Elvis recovers from only picking up a PGA nomination. It’s locked in, probably in sixth place but a case could be made that it’s in fifth, tussling with Top Gun: Maverick and it’s PGA and DGA. Tar continues a strong streak.

The other story is the relatively poor showing for everything else. Top Gun: Maverick might have been in sixth place but this shutout confirms that I was wrong about it’s chances (I still think a preferential ballot helps it but maybe not enough if it shows up best case sixth place here). But this is a disaster for The Fabelmans following its good news last week of a Golden Globes win plus a SAG nomination. Avatar: The Way of Water didn’t show up strongly in the long lists but no production design is pretty surprising. Lousy showings or shutouts for Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Women Talking.

Paul Mescal probably elbows into the Best Actor five.

Wondering if we’ve been underrating Emma Thompson’s chances. She is wonderful in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande.

I think Everything Everywhere All At Once might be our winner at the Oscars.

[Big Magilla]

Take out Mulligan for sure. Could be Stephanie Hsu or long shot Nina Hoss instead of Hong Chow but the others are pretty much baked in at this point.

[flipp525]

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said )

Take out Carey Mulligan, and I think this is your Best Supporting Actress lineup for the Oscars.

[Big Magilla]

There is overlap between AMPAS and BAFTA members so this could mean something. It's only five days until we will know.

[OscarGuy]

Was the All Quiet surge real or just British? We won't know until Oscar morning because ballots were due before these were announced. As I thought, Top Gun: Maverick was too "American" to be liked by the Brits.

[Big Magilla]

All Quiet on the Western Front leads with 14 nominations, followed by The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once with 10 each, Elvis with 9, and Tàr with 5. The Fabelmans gets Original Screenplay and that's it.

[Big Magilla]

Best Picture:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tàr

Best Director:
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tàr
Martin McDonagh, Banshees of Inisherin
Gina Prince Bythewood, The Woman King

Best British Film:
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian and Charles
Empire of Light
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Living
Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder

Best Lead Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Tàr
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Lead Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan. The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Best Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everwhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tàr
Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet On the Western Front
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
The Whale

Best International Film:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Corsage
Decision to Leave
The Quiet Girl

EE Rising Star
Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody)
Sheila Atim (The Woman King)
Aimee Lou Wood (Living)
Emma Mackey (Emily)
Daryl McCormack (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)