Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

[Sabin]

That's not cool. This thread is called "Box Office Predix". What the fuck else are we supposed to talk about? Whether or not you care to admit it, that 'The Dark Knight' bested 'The Mummy 3' in its third week is big news.

"Why don't you fuck off."?

[OscarGuy]

Why don't you fuck off.

[MovieWes]

I agree. We should all refrain from talking about The Dark Knight from now on. We're upsetting OscarGuy.

Let's move the discussion to the Superhero Movie thread. :p



Edited By MovieWes on 1217796961

[OscarGuy]

Can you guys please stop. I know you're excited that your favorite movie is doing so well, but it's really just getting old. I liked the movie a lot, but even I'm starting to get sick of hearing about it day after day...and I'd bet there are plenty in Hollywood who are feeling the same.

[Penelope]

I wonder if fanboys are going back to see the film just so it takes over the #1 slot from Titanic. Regardless, I still say it's the worst movie I've seen so far this year.

[MovieWes]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE
August 1–3, 2008
Studio Estimates
Next updates: Monday afternoon - Actual grosses for 90+ movies.

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 The Dark Knight WB $43,800,000 -41.7% 4,266 -100 $10,267 $394,887,000 $185 3
2 N The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Uni. $42,450,000 - 3,760 - $11,289 $42,450,000 $145 1
3 2 Step Brothers Sony $16,300,000 -47.3% 3,094 - $5,268 $62,966,000 $65 2
4 3 Mamma Mia! Uni. $13,121,000 -26.1% 3,062 +72 $4,285 $87,975,000 $52 3
5 5 Journey to the Center of the Earth WB $6,875,000 -29.2% 2,285 -403 $3,008 $73,140,000 $60 4
6 N Swing Vote BV $6,300,000 - 2,213 - $2,846 $6,300,000 $21 1
7 6 Hancock Sony $5,200,000 -37.4% 2,782 -527 $1,869 $215,995,000 $150 5
8 7 Wall-E BV $4,747,000 -26.1% 2,555 -489 $1,857 $204,222,000 $180 6
9 4 The X-Files: I Want to Believe Fox $3,425,000 -65.8% 3,185 - $1,075 $17,060,000 $30 2
10 9 Space Chimps Fox $2,840,000 -37.4% 2,134 -404 $1,330 $22,091,000 $37 3
11 8 Hellboy II: The Golden Army Uni. $2,527,000 -50.5% 1,956 -1,062 $1,291 $71,273,000 $85 4
12 10 Wanted Uni. $1,257,000 -54.1% 895 -855 $1,404 $131,338,000 $75 6

[Zahveed]

Way-to-go TDK. It's pretty much smooth sailing from here unless Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder have anything to say about it.

[MovieWes]

Oh. My. God.

'Mummy 3' Loses #1 To 'Dark Knight'; Costner's 'Swing Vote' Dead On Arrival

SUNDAY AM: Very early Sunday numbers show that Warner Bros' The Dark Knight is laying claim to be the No. 1 novie in North America for the 3rd weekend in a row. Studio sources tell me that the Batman mega-blockbuster's Friday, Saturday and estimated Sunday take of $43M-$44M bested the $40M-$41M opening weekend of Universal's The Mummy 3: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor which had finished first on Friday but flattened on Saturday. The Brendan Fraser actioner ran well behind its hoped-for $50M -- but did well overseas. (See below.) Whereas Dark Knight's gross on Saturday went up 37% from Friday and down only 35% from a week ago. Other early Saturday numbers showed that Sony's holdover Will Ferrell comedy Step Brothers climbed 18% from Friday to Saturday to finish #3 with a $15M-$16M weekend. Universal's 3-week-old Mamma Mia! was 4th with a $14M weekend. Warner Bros' month-old Journey To The Center Of The Earth 3D came in No. 5 with $7M. And Disney's Kevin Costner starrer Swing Vote opened stillborn with an embarrassing $6.2M weekend, falling to 6th place. Stay tuned for the Top 10.

----------------------------

BATMAN RULES AGAIN! 'The Dark Knight' finishes the weekend with $44.8M, down just 40%; 'Mummy 3' huge overseas, but just $42.5M domestic! 'Step Brothers' is a strong #3 with $15.5M! 'Swing Vote' a non-starter for Costner with $7M!

by Steve Mason

SUNDAY 7:00 a.m. (Pacific): The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) will wrap up the weekend with $42.5M, well behind industry expectation, which were for $50M+. Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight scored another $44.8M, pushing the Batman Begins sequel to $395.88M domestic.

Industry execs continue shaking their heads and saying that they have never seen anything like The Dark Knight. The film got a nice 37% bounce on Saturday, and I am standing by my projection of $480M domestic, which would make it the #2 grossing US movie of all-time, trailing only Titanic.

For The Mummy 3, despite a less-than-spectacular stateside start, it opened in 28 overseas territories with an estimated $59M. That is a bigger number than either of the 2 previous Mummy films managed in the same foreign markets. It should also be pointed out that Tomb of the Dragon Emperor will easily exceed $100M+ domestic (probably $125M-$135M) and the worldwide number should approach $400M.

Sony's Step Brothers is a strong #3 for the 3-day with $15.5M with a new cume $62.16M, followed by Mamma Mia (Universal) with $13.1M, bringing its total US take to about $88M. Kevin Costner, who says that he invested $21M of his own money in Swing Vote (Disney), may have trouble recouping his investment. The politically-themed comedy managed only $7M on its opening weekend.



Edited By MovieWes on 1217776123

[MovieWes]

Titanic's Been Unsinkable...Until Dark Knight?
Wednesday July 30 6:51 PM ET

by Joal Ryan

Los Angeles (E! Online) - Ten years after sailing off with $600.8 million, Titanic remains the top-grossing movie of all-time, a title which, up until The Dark Knight onslaught, hasn't been seriously challenged.

Why?

Statistically speaking, says Jeffrey Simonoff, borrowing a famous line from screenwriter William Goldman, "Nobody knows."

"Many people have noted if the stock market is a high-risk market, the movies is far riskier," says Simonoff, professor of statistics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

Huge opening weekends and great buzz certainly increase a movie's odds of making lots and lots of money, but beyond that, Simonoff argues, it's all guesswork.

"What Titanic had was the amazing word of mouth that just kept growing and growing," Simonoff says. "[But] it wasn't like after the second weekend people could say this is going to be the No. 1 movie for the next three months."

Actually, Titanic was the No. 1 movie at the weekend box office for about three-and-a-half months, or 15 weeks, the second-longest run in the top spot after E.T., which logged 16 weeks there in 1982.

To Vicki Kunkel, author of upcoming Instant Appeal: The 8 Primal Factors That Create Blockbuster Success, movies that play on and on and on, like Titanic, are the cinematic equivalent of potato chips—one viewing is not enough.

"Titanic pretty much had all the elements that light up the endorphins on the brain," says Kunkel. "Anything that makes us feel good is addictive."

If all blockbuster movies contain like elements, Kunkel points out, then Titanic had all the right elements, including a love story (see: Leonardo DiCaprio's Jack and Kate Winslet's Rose), a self-sacrificing heroine (see: Rose spurn her rich fiancé, Billy Zane's Cal, for poor Jack) and a clear-cut battle between good and bad (see: Jack take on Cal).

Kunkel finds a couple of these key elements, especially the conflict between good and evil, at play in The Dark Knight. She doesn't, however, foresee another bag of potato chips. Or, more precisely, a bigger bag of potato chips.

"We relate more to real people than we do to superheroes," Kunkel says. "And that's when the real addictiveness happens, when we have a deep primal connection."

Christopher Sharrett, professor of communications and film studies at Seton Hall University, thinks there could be a different kind of connection going on between the seriously dark Dark Knight and today's moviegoers.

"It's ripped out of the headlines," Sharrett says. "It's something that appeals to a cynicism of the population."

More than that, Sharrett thinks the untimely death of Heath Ledger, so prominent in The Dark Knight as iconic villain The Joker, is the film's X factor—the something different that, as he sees it, distinguishes the superhero-action movie from all the other recent superhero-action movies.

But does that add up to The Dark Knight moving from $400 million, its certain next stop, all the way to Titanic's $600 million neighborhood?

"For what it's worth," Simonoff says, "I would certainly say it wouldn't be surprising given the way things look like now."

Then again, he says, it wouldn't be surprising if it fell $100 million short.

Says Simonoff: "You can never know for sure."

Up until its release, after all, Titanic was considered a $200 million gamble. Until it paid off. And off. And off.

[rolotomasi99]

well, THE DARK KNIGHT made $10.5 m on monday. this looks like it could make close to $40 m from monday to thursday. this would put it at roughly $355 m by friday. this weekend will probably bring in around $35 m, meaning the film will most likely pass $400 m before next week friday. simply amazing.

[Zahveed]

I'll do it. Just give me about 15 years.

[OscarGuy]

A well-crafted love story that touches the hearts and minds of millions would work. E.T., The Sound of Music, The Ten Commandments, Gone With the Wind...they were all epics of some form or another. Each had emotional cores that appealed to a mass audience. You don't get that emotional catharsis much anymore. There's always something that doesn't appeal to one demographic or another. Dark Knight has no true emotional core, it's a wild ride and a strong story, but there's nothing terribly sad or unifying in the theme of the film. And superhero movies are almost entirely void of that and too many people can't get into the more cerebral emotional vehicles like Wall-E, so again, it's very difficult to sustain a film's potential across multiple weekends, especially not with the front-loaded cash cows being put out these days. I can't see anything planned on the horizon that could generate that kind of repeat business...it would be difficult, but you just have to find the right balance.

[Zahveed]

But Titanic proved that it doesn't have to be pre-home vid for a film to pull repeat business to a large final total.

But that's the question: what kind of film can do what Titanic did? Someone would have to film an epic space odyssey literally in space.

[OscarGuy]

Yes, a lot of those older films got many re-releases, but Gone With the Wind only had three. you know how much it made its second and third releases?

$2.4 M in 1989 and $6.75 M in 1998...that's it... the remaining $189.5 M (pre-inflated) was made in 1939...that's a significant amount for 1939.

Yes, it's before home video, but Titanic wasn't and Titanic achieved the same effect, a long-run at the box office. E.T. did the same even if it was before home video. But Titanic proved that it doesn't have to be pre-home vid for a film to pull repeat business to a large final total.

[Zahveed]

Gone With the Wind had over 40 years when the only way to see it was in the cinema. That's a hell of a long time to build up ticket sales.

This is a good point. Most of our top grossing films (when you include inflation) all come at a time before mainstream home recording media was commonplace. Hell, even when Star Wars, Jaws, and E.T. was out VHS wasn't as big as it was in the 90's.