Final Oscar Predictions

[Sabin]

rolotomasi99 wrote
Alan Kim has been charming folks all year, both in MINARI and during his press tour. I think his acceptance speech for his Critics's Choice win really came at just the right time, pushing his name into the headlines while many Academy members were filling out their ballot. He could soon become the youngest Oscar nominee ever.

This is an excellent point. He has a BAFTA nomination as well.

This means it is somewhere possible that Minari gets nominated in every acting category: Steven Yeun for Best Actor, Han Ye-ri for Best Actress (she's a bit underrated this season; keeping her character from being a nag), Alan Kim for Best Supporting Actor, and Youn Yuh-jung for Best Supporting Actress.

[rolotomasi99]

RE: Chadwick Boseman
I agree. I'm really wavering on whether or not Boseman has a chance here. Da 5 Bloods has had a fascinating trajectory but I think it's not much of a contender in any race. It feels like it's running between 5th and 6th in its best slots. And considering that it really does feel like consensus is wrapping around Boseman for Best Actor, there might be less of a need to honor him here. I'm just wondering who fills that void. Jared Leto for The Little Things? Bill Murray for On the Rocks? David Strathairn for Nomadland? I don't see Clarke Peters.

Alan Kim has been charming folks all year, both in MINARI and during his press tour. I think his acceptance speech for his Critics's Choice win really came at just the right time, pushing his name into the headlines while many Academy members were filling out their ballot. He could soon become the youngest Oscar nominee ever.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
I agree Peters is the standout supporting actor in Da 5 Bloods, although I wonder if his nomination is a little bit of the BAFTA's nominating a local actor they know--he lives in London part time and has done a lot of theater there.

Kind of starting to think Da 5 Bloods ends up with zero nominations, which is a wild outcome that I never would've predicted just a few months ago.

That first point makes a lot of sense.

I agree to the second point. I think its best chances are Actor and Supporting Actor. Delroy Lindo has a very memorable role in Da 5 Bloods but the question is who does he replace? I sense enthusiasm for Minari that will likely transfer to Steven Yeun and I think it's hard to imagine Mank getting the nominations that it will while ignoring Gary Oldman. Those are the weaker bets. Best Supporting Actor is a more open field so its best chance is likely there.

[dws1982]

Chadwick Boseman’s Da 5 Bloods nomination seems like a month ago kind of thing. I brought up Clarke Peters the other day and then boom, he appeared as a BAFTA nominee. Much more deserving performance to honor from that film (although a long-shot).

I agree Peters is the standout supporting actor in Da 5 Bloods, although I wonder if his nomination is a little bit of the BAFTA's nominating a local actor they know--he lives in London part time and has done a lot of theater there.

Kind of starting to think Da 5 Bloods ends up with zero nominations, which is a wild outcome that I never would've predicted just a few months ago.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
I think Maria Bakalova is a sure-fire nominee and might even win. Leaving her off at this point seems to ignore all precedent; she’s run the precursor gamut, nomination-wise. No other actress has this season. As BJ would say, she’s a “bird in the hand” nominee no matter how supposedly un-Oscar-friendly her performance is.

Chadwick Boseman’s Da 5 Bloods nomination seems like a month ago kind of thing. I brought up Clarke Peters the other day and then boom, he appeared as a BAFTA nominee. Much more deserving performance to honor from that film (although a long-shot).

RE: Maria Bakalova
I agree. And what's more, she's in a movie that has more respect within the industry that I think is understood on this board. The film is being praised for its feminist arc. I think she's basically a sure nominee and a win wouldn't surprise me because -- again -- she will get 100% of the comedy vote.

RE: Chadwick Boseman
I agree. I'm really wavering on whether or not Boseman has a chance here. Da 5 Bloods has had a fascinating trajectory but I think it's not much of a contender in any race. It feels like it's running between 5th and 6th in its best slots. And considering that it really does feel like consensus is wrapping around Boseman for Best Actor, there might be less of a need to honor him here. I'm just wondering who fills that void. Jared Leto for The Little Things? Bill Murray for On the Rocks? David Strathairn for Nomadland? I don't see Clarke Peters.

[flipp525]

I think Maria Bakalova is a sure-fire nominee and might even win. Leaving her off at this point seems to ignore all precedent; she’s run the precursor gamut, nomination-wise. No other actress has this season. As BJ would say, she’s a “bird in the hand” nominee no matter how supposedly un-Oscar-friendly her performance is.

Chadwick Boseman’s Da 5 Bloods nomination seems like a month ago kind of thing. I brought up Clarke Peters the other day and then boom, he appeared as a BAFTA nominee. Much more deserving performance to honor from that film (although a long-shot).

[mlrg]

Now that all precursors have spoken, it’s time for the final nominations predictions. I’ll predict the top 6 categories:

Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Nomadland
Ma Raynes Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of Chicago 7

Director
Thomas Vinterberg “Another Round”
Shaka King “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Lee Isac Chung “Minari”
Chloe Zhao “Nomadland”
Ellen Fennel “Promising Young Woman”

Actor
Riz Ahmed “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman “Ma Raynes Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins “The Father”
Gary Oldman “Mank”
Steven Yeun “Minari”

Actress
Andra Day “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Viola Davis “Ma Raynes Black Bottom”
Vanessa Kirby “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan “Promising Young Woman”

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Chadwick Boseman “Da 5 Bloods”
Daniel Kaluuya “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr. “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci “Sound of Metal”

Supporting Actress
Glenn Close “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman “The Father”
Jodie Foster “The Mauritanian”
Amanda Seyfried “Mank”
Youn Yuh-jung “Minari”