SAG Nominations

[Sabin]

I'm most interested in Best Supporting Actress. Let's talk about what kind of race we're seeing.

In 2019, Laura Dern, Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), and Margot Robbie were nominated for both. Jennifer Lopez lost out on a nomination.
In 2018, Amy Adams, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz were nominated for both. All made it in.
In 2017, Mary J. Blige, Hong Chau, Allison Janney, and Laurie Metcalf were nominated for both. Hong Chau lost out on a nomination.
In 2016, all five eventual nominees were nominated for both.
2015 is more complicated (but pretty applicable) because it involved Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara, as well as Helen Mirren and Kate Winslet. Vikander and Mara both made it in, Mirren didn't.

With two of the major precursor releases, we've seen four performances with nominations from both groups: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and Helena Zengel. Bakalova was nominated for lead for the Golden Globes and not supporting but in recent years, that's generally an average-ish number save for the fact that Maria Bakalova was nominated for lead at the Golden Globes and supporting at the SAG awards.

It stands to reason that one of these actresses won't make it. The race does not feel locked so there's no reason to believe they'll all make it in. Which one will miss out?

Olivia Colman seems like the safest bet for a nomination at this point. Everybody loves her. We can expect to see her a lot more in the future. Maybe she wins again just to infuriate Glenn Close further.

I think Maria Bakalova is pretty safe as well. I wouldn't dismiss this film. Borat isn't as edgy as it used to be and it has one thing going for it: it's trolling conservatives. Voters that might've thumbed their nose to the first one are going to be excited about watching Rudy Giuliani get his just desserts this go-around. I'd also entertain the idea of her possibly winning. This is a dramatic field and she's an oddball comedic choice. Marisa Tomei anyone?

We all thought Glenn Close was done after Hillbilly Elegy came out to abysmal reviews. But with both of these in her favor, I think her chances are a bit reborn. Truly, people might just say "Fine, here." But the film has a 20% on Rotten Tomatoes. When was the last time something that had a 20% on Rotten Tomatoes was nominated for an Academy Award outside of Best Makeup? I bet Norbit has a higher RT%. I honestly think Glenn Close will get in based on people voting for her without seeing the movie.

Helena Zengel would be my guess for the one who misses out but honestly, I don't really know. I haven't seen News of the World. Nobody I know has. It would be easier to gauge if we had a box office. But we don't. I'm forced to say "Hailee Steinfeld got in so maybe she can as well."

Of these four, I would say Bakalova, Close, and Colman are in. But it would be a very 2020 thing for Glenn Close to miss out on a nomination but Maria Bakalova, Helena Zengel, and Yuh-Jung Youn get in, none of which speak English as a first language.

Currently, I would say rounding out that list with Yuh-Jung Youn and Amanda Seyfried seems smart but we're look to the Baftas for clarity. In 2017, Lesley Manville got a nomination despite only having a BAFTA nomination. In 2019, Florence Pugh got in despite only having a Bafta as well. We're looking to see if they nominate Ellen Burstyn or Jodie Foster (pushing her further into the conversation).

[Big Magilla]

Good research, Rolo.

I think Tee is right about Bakalova, this year's Jennifer Lopez.

Here's how I see Oscar nominations shaping up at the moment:

Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

After being counted down and out Close has proved resilient with both Globe and SAG nominations. I don't think she will be one that Oscar snubs.

Burstyn earned her sixth nomination twenty years after her fifth. If nominated for her seventh this year, she will have repeated the 20-year jump, a real first. She will also break Christopher Plummer's record as the oldest acting nominee. Oscar loves to break records and two-in-one seems irresistible.

Seyfried's snub by SAG is a definite blip.

Zengel could snag an Oscar nod but I don't know who she would displace.

I agree with Sabin here. I think we may well be back to a "give it to Close" scenario.

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

If they were smart, they would nominate Kinsley Ben-Adir (for One Night in Miami) or someone else instead of shoehorning Boseman into this category. A double nod for him could be a gamble that ends up losing him both Best Actor and Supporting Actor.

If not Boseman for the win, then either Raci or Odom. Odom would be my pick, but he's probably going to win an Oscar for Best Song so they may consider that enough for him for one night.

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Day hasn't been a factor yet - her film is coming to theatres and Hulu at the end of the month. I expect she will easily overcome Amy Adams for the fifth slot. Sentimental favorites Sophia Loren and Michelle Pfeiffer seem to be out of it at this point, although a Globe comedy win for Pfeiffer could put her back in the race over Day if Day's film fails to take off.

Right now it looks like Mulligan, but if Day's film really does take off, then her fresher face could be the winner on Oscar night.

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy indo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank

I think Oscar will come to Lindo's rescue, although if it were up to me it would be at Oldman's expense, not Yeun's.

It almost certainly will be either Ahmed or Boseman. I'm thinking Ahmed has a slight edge if Boseman has a real shot at winning in support.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
Maria Bakalova ending up winning this would be so 2020 vibes.

Starting to think they just give it to Glenn Close.

[Mister Tee]

Since my first comment yesterday was about how non-black the Best Film-Drama category was, I have to note how non-white the Best Ensemble category is here: The Trial of the Chicago7 is the only predominantly white cast among them. SAG and the Globes are in different universes.

Chicago 7 is also the only one of the SAG Ensemble nominees to be cited in either best picture category at the Globes. How rare is this? I've gone back 15 years and not found a match. A couple of years (2013, '15 & '16) only two such matches occurred, but this is our worst year of correlation. (I know, you can stretch to Minari under foreign language, but the lack of other Globe nominations for the film, in acting or directing, make me suspicious it rates being elevated the way Parasite or Roma, with their directing nods, were.)

This backs up my thought from yesterday, that the wonkiness of the year might prevent the hive-mind from assembling its usual self-reinforcing template. The Broadcasters are going to have to expand acting categories 7 or 8 wide to be sure every possibility's covered -- especially if they want to include as-yet unnamed but murmured-about candidates like Lindo, Burstyn or Raci.

I just don't know how much it means that, say, Lindo and Raci have been left out of these first two TV venues despite running strong in critics' groups. They're at least on the BAFTA long lists; if they turn up as nominees there, their chances improve. It's more problematic for the Ma Rainey supporting folk, who aren't showing up anywhere.

Seyfried's omission, in tandem with Oldman's inclusion, feels weird. It's generally more important, as Oscar prelude, to score with SAG/BAFTA than Globes/Broadcasters -- but, recently, Regina King missed the two most important/industry-related, but made up for it by winning the other two.

Or there may be a general aw-fuck-it/let's take advantage of the year's weirdness to pension off Glenn Close. I guess I never really commented on Close or Hillbilly Elegy. I thought, in general, her performance was respectable -- not the horror it appeared in small clips -- nothing I'd think of as award-worthy, but short of an embarrassment. That may be enough in this drastically limited year.

But, as FilmFan notes, Oscar voting is still miles off, and it could be we'll have something like the pre-early deadline years (pre-2003), where films could break late with Oscar voters and not be so beholden to precursors. It's worth hoping for. If the year's not going to be dispositive, it might as well be lively.

ON EDIT: Oh, and may I say, I still very much doubt Bakalova.

[rolotomasi99]

I was rooting for Ellen Burstyn to win Supporting Actress, but according to the Hollywood Reporter, only Marcia Gay Harden (POLLOCK) has ever won an Oscar after being snubbed by both the Globes and SAG (since 2000).

Here are some more Globes/SAG/Oscar facts from this century:

Snubbed by both Globes and SAG but nominated for Oscar
Samantha Morton - In America (2003)
Djimon Hounsou - In America (2003)
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog (2003)
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River (2003)
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby (2004)
Alan Alda - The Aviator (2004)
William Hurt - A History of Violence (2005)
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah (2007)
Laura Linney - The Savages (2007)
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road (2008)
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart (2009)
Javier Bardem - Biutiful (2010)
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)
Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour (2012)
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012)
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook (2012)
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)
Bradley Cooper - American Sniper (2014)
Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night (2014)
Laura Dern - Wild (2014)
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years (2015)
Tom Hardy - The Revenant (2015)
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight (2015)
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals (2016)
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread (2017)
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma (2018)
Marina de Tavira - Roma (2018)
Florence Pugh - Little Women (2019)

Nominated by both Globes and SAG but snubbed for Oscar
Hayden Christensen - Life as a House (2001)
Cameron Diaz - Vanilla Sky (2001)
Cate Blanchett - Bandits (2002)
Richard Gere - Chicago (2002)
Dennis Quaid - Far From Heaven (2002)
Evan Rachel Wood - Thirteen (2003)
Maria Bello - The Cooler (2003)
Paul Giamatti - Sideways (2004)
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man (2005)
Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha (2005)
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed (2006)
Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl (2007)
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart (2007)
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (2008)
Mila Kunis - Black Swan (2010)
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar (2011)
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)
John Hawkes - The Sessions (2012)
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone (2012)
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy (2012)
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock (2012)
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips (2013)
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks (2013)
Daniel Bruhl - Rush (2013)
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler (2014)
Jennifer Aniston - Cake (2014)
Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation (2015)
Michael Shannon - 99 Homes (2015)
Helen Mirren - Trumbo (2015)
Amy Adams - Arrival (2016)
Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins (2016)
James Franco - The Disaster Artist (2017)
Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul (2017)
Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes (2017)
Hong Chau - Downsizing (2017)
John David Washington - Black Klansman (2018)
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy (2018)
Christian Bale - Ford v Ferrari (2019)
Taron Egerton - Rocket Man (2019)
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers (2019)

[flipp525]

It seems like Amanda Seyfried has been dethroned as the Supporting Actress frontrunner.

Maria Bakalova ending up winning this would be so 2020 vibes.

[FilmFan720]

Does anyone know how accessible (or how pushed) Billie Holiday was? It seems to just be starting to pick up buzz (there was a big segment on CBS Sunday Morning this week, which tends to signal to me a push towards older voters), but I haven't seen a whole lot of screener push or Q&As yet. Not sure how much people saw of it. I think it very well could be our strongest Actress contender, especially if it peaks in a few weeks. We are still six weeks out from ballots being turned in!

Interesting note: Cate Blanchett, until today, had the most SAG nominations without any television nominations with 14. Now, she loses that title which goes to Leo, who has 11 movie nominations and no TV. Even more impressive, the two all-time leaders in SAG nominations (Edie Falco and Julia Louis-Dreyfuss) have no movie nominations.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
It’s sad that Paul Raci is missing out on these pre-cursors. His performance always seemed to subtle for recognition by the Academy (even in this weird year) and that might be proven out.

I think Paul Raci will still make it in. The biggest hurdle for someone like him is getting seen and it appears that Sound of Metal is getting seen and it is liked. If Riz Ahmed can get a nomination, then I think Paul Raci will as well. Now if Riz Ahmed somehow misses out on a nomination, that's another story. It seems as though Anthony Hopkins and Chadwick Boseman are on more solid ground. Riz Ahmed is about on par with Gary Oldman.

flipp525 wrote
Jared Leto’s sudden emergence as a player in this race is interesting. But this category has always seemed like the one that had a deep bench with lots of surprises so maybe it shouldn’t be such a shock.

I keep thinking of Daniel Bruhl for Rush. Is Leto really any good in The Little Things?

[flipp525]

It’s sad that Paul Raci is missing out on these pre-cursors. His performance always seemed too subtle for recognition by the Academy (even in this weird year) and that might be proven out.

Jared Leto’s sudden emergence as a player in this race is interesting. But this category has always seemed like the one that had a deep bench with lots of surprises so maybe it shouldn’t be such a shock.

[Sabin]

Since the AFTRA merger, they have only gotten all five films in the eventual Best Picture lineup once (2014). A while ago, I would've looked at this list and said the odd-film would be Minari, but now I'm inclined to say Da 5 Bloods. Or maybe Ma Rainey.

But this is a big award. Increasingly, it's the one we should be looking to for answers. The big question is which of these Ensemble Films is going to win Best Picture? Since 1995, only three films have won Best Picture without this nomination: Braveheart, Green Book, and The Shape of Water. Braveheart is from a different time. Green Book and The Shape of Water had multiple acting nominations to off-set. Basically, if something is going to win that isn't nominated for Best Ensemble (Nomadland sticks out), it needs to be seen as an actor's film. For example, if David Strathairn got a nomination.

We've got Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. In the past whatever many years, only one film has won Best Picture without a Golden Globe nomination for Best Drama (Crash), so by that logic would mean that only Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 would still be in the running. Obviously, the more important precursors (BAFTA, DGA, PGA) are coming up.


Anyway, we now have the first official batch of voting with overlap with the Academy awards. There are considerable takeaways:

* They like Minari, which along with Ma Rainey is the only film to get three nominations without help from that Stunt Ensemble category.

* They might not like Mank, which got a big shot in the arm by the HFP's six nominations and today stiffed save for Gary Oldman's nomination. Amanda Seyfried missing out is surprising. Who wins this category now? Are they just going to give it to Glenn Close and in this lineup would that honestly be the worst thing in the world?

* Ellen Burstyn, whom I thought could win, misses out on Globe and SAG nominations.

* Hillbilly Elegy getting a nomination for Amy Adams points to a lack of clear Best Actress contenders more than anything else. I suppose Sandra Day's omission is a very bad sign for her chances for The United States vs. Billie Holiday considering this group's affinity for diverse films and Lee Daniels. Will voters go for Sophia Loren, Michelle Pfeiffer, Kate Winslet, or Zendaya? This reminds me of 2018 when we had four clear contenders and in the end they went with a Best Picture coattails nominee (Yalitza Aparicio from Roma). Is there one this year?

* Best Actor is coming into focus. Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, and Gary Oldman seem pretty set. Will the Academy go with Globe-nominees Tahar Rahim, SAG-nominee Steven Yeun, or critic's fave Delroy Lindo? I have a hard time imagining that Delroy Lindo misses out for such a memorable performance.

* Best Supporting Actor is coming a little into focus. With two nominations, we know that Sasha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, and Leslie Odom, Jr. are both in. Jared Leto got both nominations as well but nobody can wrap their brains around Jared Leto getting in for this largely disliked film. Bill Murray got a Golden Globe nomination but it's very easy to chalk that nomination up to star-fuckery. Chadwick Boseman got a SAG nomination but it's equally easy to chalk his nomination up to star worship. Paul Raci missed out on both but has established himself as the critic's favorite of the year in a well-liked movie.

[OscarGuy]

I don't really think Leto is that respected. After his stunt with Suicide Squad, I doubt many people are excited to work with him. I think the reason he's being recognized is that his film was one of the last ones they may have seen. The Academy is voting much farther away from that film.

[Reza]

Close is not going to win. I have a feeling Ellen Burstyn is going to win her second Oscar.

[criddic3]

I think Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy is more comparable to The Judge.

On paper yes. But Robert Duvall was a previous winner and Glenn Close is the most snubbed actress alive so I'm starting to feel that, as much as a horrible peace of film making this movie is, she will finally get her Oscar from it. She really has no competition in terms of narrative, either history wise or critics wise this year.

That would be really sad, considering the overall reviews for the film. She got some good notices, but this would be way worse than giving it to Pacino for Scent of a Woman (a best pic nominee) or Paul Newman for The Color of Money (which got better reviews than Hillbilly Elegy.) It's not like Close is on her death bed. She still has some game left in her to be nominated and win for something else.

[mlrg]

Jared Leto strikes me as one of those filler nominees that show up most everywhere but fail to get in like Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy, Daniel Bruhl in Rush and Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar. He's not in the BAFTA longlist so he's not gonna get in BAFTA.

Or he could be like Robert Duvall in The Judge. Previous, respected, Oscar winner in a genre role doing credible but unspectacular work yet getting nominated anyway.

I think Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy is more comparable to The Judge.

On paper yes. But Robert Duvall was a previous winner and Glenn Close is the most snubbed actress alive so I'm starting to feel that, as much as a horrible peace of film making this movie is, she will finally get her Oscar from it. She really has no competition in terms of narrative, either history wise or critics wise this year.

[anonymous1980]

Jared Leto strikes me as one of those filler nominees that show up most everywhere but fail to get in like Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy, Daniel Bruhl in Rush and Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar. He's not in the BAFTA longlist so he's not gonna get in BAFTA.

Or he could be like Robert Duvall in The Judge. Previous, respected, Oscar winner in a genre role doing credible but unspectacular work yet getting nominated anyway.

I think Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy is more comparable to The Judge.