Coronavirus and the Oscars

[Precious Doll]

It really is a bit difficult to celebrate anything at the moment with the carnage unfolding around much of the globe.

[Reza]

The Oscars are a reflection and a CELEBRATION of the year in film so if the Best Picture winner of 2020 is a Netflix film, so be it. I don't see why that would be a problem.

Totally agree.

[Precious Doll]

I thought I would start compiling my personal list of best of 2020 which I usually start in June. Despite very slim pickings I could actually come up with nominations that I am happy with in the top six categories. Filled picture/director/actor/supporting actor & actress. Only actress stopped at 3 worthy candidates.

Also, I am counting Bad Education as eligible for my 2020 contenders. It was made for cinema and I personally hate to pass on such a good film just because HBO purchased the rights and I would make that exception in the case of Bad Education regardless of the pandemic or not. Hugh Jackman is so deserving for consideration.

Speaking of cinema's opening during the pandemic here is a piece from The Hollywood Reporter worth reading: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ ... -right-now

It does raise the issue that no research has been undertaken into the safety of cinemas which isn't actually true because there was a German group that looked into the very issue a few months ago, though I don't recall their conclusions.

Personally, the safety of cinemas depends on individual circumstances of a town or city where they are located. Ironically cinemas in Sydney will be able to play to 50% capacity from Monday. I don't foresee any problems with that due to extremely low levels of community transmissions in the past 4 weeks and that cinemas aren't even playing to audiences anywhere near their current legal levels. To date no COVID cases have been linked to cinemas but as the numbers are so low it is not really surprising. Only last Thursday yet again my partner and I were the only two people in a large cinema for the opening day session of An American Pickle. This is becoming the new normal.

[anonymous1980]

Who cares what would have been a contender in years prior? This is an opportunity to recognize the phenomenal work being put out that is often ignored by the Academy in favor of "big" films. Just look at the list I submitted previously (I believe it was even in this thread). There were well more than twenty critically acclaimed films that have already gotten released. So far, even The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting stellar reviews. I know you want to poo poo the idea of there being Oscars this year, but that would punish every film of merit that gets released this year in an vain attempt to shoehorn 2021 into the proceedings, thus punishing any film that released in 2020 for Oscar consideration.

^This.^

It's good to note that most of the films that are moving to 2021 are the big studio films, most of which wouldn't even factor in the Best Picture race anyway. Smaller indie, grown-up films will be comfortable making their debuts on streaming and VOD, qualifying at least THIS year for the Oscars. The Oscars are a reflection and a CELEBRATION of the year in film so if the Best Picture winner of 2020 is a Netflix film, so be it. I don't see why that would be a problem.

[Greg]

This is very true. There've probably been other cases, but I recall specifically in 1984 the Best Play category was comprised of literally the only four new plays that opened on Broadway that year. (As it happens, three of them were good; the other lasted exactly 5 performances.)

Last year, Oklahoma won for Revival Of A Musical; and, the only other nominee was Kiss Me Kate, as those were the only two musical revivals to open on Broadway that season.

[OscarGuy]

Who cares what would have been a contender in years prior? This is an opportunity to recognize the phenomenal work being put out that is often ignored by the Academy in favor of "big" films. Just look at the list I submitted previously (I believe it was even in this thread). There were well more than twenty critically acclaimed films that have already gotten released. So far, even The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting stellar reviews. I know you want to poo poo the idea of there being Oscars this year, but that would punish every film of merit that gets released this year in an vain attempt to shoehorn 2021 into the proceedings, thus punishing any film that released in 2020 for Oscar consideration.

[Big Magilla]

Take a look at the predictions that four of us have put together for this year's likeliest nominees in the top eight categories for which we came up with 25 eminent contenders. Add in add 12 more predictions for Animated Feature and you have 37. Best Actress and Supporting Actor are particularly heavy with possibilities.

http://cinemasight.com/2020-oscar-nomin ... september/

Apart from Da 5 Bloods and Nomadland, these are June-like predictions -- i.e., made sight-unseen, at a point when all movie years look bountiful. West Side Story is already gone from the list; Dune will almost surely follow, and I'm willing to bet 1/3 to 1/2 of the rest will also not open. Then I guarantee (based on all precedent) that half of the remainder will range from utterly mediocre to outright-suck. (Some are already in that category -- Ben Affleck in The Way Back; seriously?) You're presenting a best-case projection here.

Ben Affleck is not my prediction. And, yes, these are June-like in that we haven't seen much but...there's always a but...it ain't over until it's over. I predict when it is it will be no worse than a lot of other years. Best Actress of 1975, for example, will remain the nadir of that category.

[Reza]

Don't understand the facination for Dune. Already done twice before. Apart from a few technical nods this doesn't have a hope of getting into any of the top 6 categories.

[Mister Tee]

Take a look at the predictions that four of us have put together for this year's likeliest nominees in the top eight categories for which we came up with 25 eminent contenders. Add in add 12 more predictions for Animated Feature and you have 37. Best Actress and Supporting Actor are particularly heavy with possibilities.

http://cinemasight.com/2020-oscar-nomin ... september/

Apart from Da 5 Bloods and Nomadland, these are June-like predictions -- i.e., made sight-unseen, at a point when all movie years look bountiful. West Side Story is already gone from the list; Dune will almost surely follow, and I'm willing to bet 1/3 to 1/2 of the rest will also not open. Then I guarantee (based on all precedent) that half of the remainder will range from utterly mediocre to outright-suck. (Some are already in that category -- Ben Affleck in The Way Back; seriously?) You're presenting a best-case projection here.

[Reza]

If the more important goal is to put on a show with everyone in the same place, then by all means go ahead and wait.

It would be foolish if that is going to be the main route taken by the Academy.

The idea is to nominate and award the best of the year. So what if these are films being released on Netflix or other similar platforms? I really don't think 2021 is going to be dire in terms of new movies. Hollywood is bound to find a way to continue shooting while following stringent SOPs. Bollywood has already started stalled film shoots with actors returning to finish them. It's not possible that there will be a complete standstill. People are already going to work. Schools are opening up gradually. Hollywood will start operating again too.

Spielberg's plan of shifting the release of his musical seems to be purely from a business point of view - the new big budget Nolan film did not perform too well which could also be because of a lot of flak it got in the press for bad sound and a complicated plot line. Big budget films need the big screen more than the smaller intimate dramas which play well enough on the tv screen. The prediction list below testifies that a number of the films being talked about are going to show up on television and will form the final list of nominees. Most would have been still part of the nominees list without the pandemic. With and without the big screen these same films are the ones to find their place on the final list.

[Big Magilla]

The technical categories that tend to be dominated by big budget films will be limited in prospects, but the top ten categories - picture, acting, directing, writing, cinematography and editing won't be. When was the last time more than twenty films competed in those categories? Last year there was a total of 18 films nominated in those categories.

Surely you can grasp the difference between "only about 20 films dominated the main Oscar categories" and "there are only 20 films that even qualify". The latter list would include pulp movies (like The Invisible Man), failed Oscar bait, and maybe five of the movies that would have been among the 20 in those other years.

Take a look at the predictions that four of us have put together for this year's likeliest nominees in the top eight categories for which we came up with 25 eminent contenders. Add in add 12 more predictions for Animated Feature and you have 37. Best Actress and Supporting Actor are particularly heavy with possibilities.

http://cinemasight.com/2020-oscar-nomin ... september/

[Mister Tee]

The technical categories that tend to be dominated by big budget films will be limited in prospects, but the top ten categories - picture, acting, directing, writing, cinematography and editing won't be. When was the last time more than twenty films competed in those categories? Last year there was a total of 18 films nominated in those categories.

Surely you can grasp the difference between "only about 20 films dominated the main Oscar categories" and "there are only 20 films that even qualify". The latter list would include pulp movies (like The Invisible Man), failed Oscar bait, and maybe five of the movies that would have been among the 20 in those other years.

There's also the case that many films that would have been part of this year's Oscar race were as yet unfilmed or certainly incomplete -- this shutdown hit in mid-March, and closed production (or preceded production) on films that would have been ready for year-end release. All of those are now missing from the slate.

And I don't know where everyone gets the idea that only big-studio efforts rely on theatrical grosses, so everyone else will be happy to drop their small movies right onto VOD. Those small films for one thing rely on theatrical grosses as part of making back their budgets, and, for another, do well on later, mostly-streaming platforms because of the notoriety they garnered from being successful in theatrical release. The Shape of Water or Lady Bird just dropped into VOD might well have disappeared without a trace.

People who keep insisting there'll be Oscars this year seem committed to the Platonic idea of it rather than the reality on the ground. No one will take seriously awards won in such a limited field of competition. I just don't see the point of it.

[Precious Doll]

Sight & Sound has an on-line edition. Not sure if it's available free to subscribers of the print edition but you can currently access all of this year's editions (January-October) here:

http://sightandsounddigital.bfi.org.uk/ ... cribe.aspx

You have to subscribe - I can't adjust to on-line versions of my magazines.

I had to switch to subscribing to Film Comment a number of years ago when news-agencies in Australia stopped stocking it. The last issue I received from them was the Jan/Feb edition. COVID hitting in March appears to have prevented me receiving the Mar/Apr edition and I will follow it up with them once they are operating again to get my paper copy. The sent a link for free access to their May/Jun edition but I won't even look at at. Hold habits die hard for me with magazines and if I can't get them in paper form I don't bother.

I actually find the reviews from everyone on this site far more insightful then most of what is in the media.

[Big Magilla]

Sight & Sound has an on-line edition. Not sure if it's available free to subscribers of the print edition but you can currently access all of this year's editions (January-October) here:

http://sightandsounddigital.bfi.org.uk/ ... cribe.aspx

[Precious Doll]

Cinema as we have known it is on life support with the prognosis very poor.

COVID is going away anytime soon but that in itself is a whole other story. By the way soon is likely to be quite a number of years.....

Yesterday I got a text to advise me that the latest edition of Sight & Sound had come in for me to collect from my local bookstore. I went to collect it this morning (the price has increased by $7 - with barely any flights coming into Australia anything from outside the country now costs a small fortune) and only just flicked through it this evening. Grim stuff. Most of the October edition is devoted to television and I'm including all those Netflix films in that. The only piece I even bothered to read in the issue was a half page obituary on Linda Manz. I don't know why I even bother getting the magazine anymore as it has been in decline for a number of years but some habits are hard to break. As it is I had to place a back order for one issue that didn't arrive when COVID first broke out and the September edition hasn't found its way here either so I ordered a copy on-line together with the Blu Ray release of Tony Richardson's Mademoislle. The special Godard issue also hasn't made its way here but I'm passing on that - what more do I really need to read on the man regardless of his legendary status.

I still maintain as I did in another thread about 10 days ago that the Oscars should combine 2020 & 2021 and even then it's not going to feel the same. More and more big budget studio films are getting pushed back. The Tenet experiment was a failure for a number of reasons:

1) They couldn't release it in many markets;
2) The response in markets were they could was underwhelming and this primarily related to two factors. The reluctance of audiences to return to the cinemas on mass and that many people are not financially in a position to go anyway as so many people have lost their jobs.

Neither of those two things are going change for a long time and one of the casualties will be the closure of many cinemas around the world.

Even waiting until the end of 2021 may not prove too fruitful for choices.