Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

anonymous1980 wrote:You're predicting another #OscarsSoWhite, Big Magilla?

I don't like that term. It suggests a conspiracy that isn't there.

One of my Best Picture predictions is for a film in which the black characters are the good guys and the white characters the bad guys. Another presents a beloved black actress in a key role that could net her a third Oscar nomination, but probably won't due to her film's so far lack of showing in the precursors. Octavia Spencer couldn't even pull off a Satellite nomination. Mary J. Blige, who did, has the weight of Netflix's slap in the face distribution system on her back. I don't really see them going for the Girls Trip star and Denzel Washington is not a major contender this year.

As to the Melissa Leo discussion, I don't think she's a strong contender, but she did get a Satellite nomination so I'm leaving her in my predictions for now, but I don't think she'll make my personal picks which could include Holly Hunter and/or the aforementioned Octavia Spencer over her and Lesley Manville.

The Original BJ wrote:Honest question: does anyone know anyone who has actually seen Novitiate?

Since, through last weekend, Novitiate had grossed a total of $373,438, and was averaging $685 per at 120 theaters -- I think it's likely the answer to your question is, few if any of us.

The movie played at Sundance and got a somewhat inflated reputation there, especially re: the Leo performance. It doesn't have bad reviews overall (73 on Metacritic), but there's no sign it's caught on with anyone. However...you can never rule out someplace like the Broadcasters nominating Leo just because there was buzz at some point.

Remember when everybody was predicting Jennifer Aniston would get nominated for 'Cake' when nobody had seen it?

Honest question: does anyone know anyone who has actually seen Novitiate? I keep seeing Melissa Leo pop up on prediction lists, but it doesn't seem like that movie has made any impact, even in cinephile circles. It seems a little weird to me that she still seems to be in the conversation when there barely seems to be any actual conversation about that film or performance at all.

You're predicting another #OscarsSoWhite, Big Magilla?

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Actress
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards in Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk