First 2009 predictions - It's time...

[Sabin]

I'll update mine predicated almost entirely by the fact that Amelia is a bomb, Invictus looks like the most boring movie on the planet, and people don't get Where the Wild Things Are.

BEST PICTURE
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sibide, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julia & Julia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
...one of the prawns?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9
An Education
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Invictus
Up in the Air

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
9
The Princess and the Frog
Up

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Brian Eno, The Lovely Bones
Michael Giacchino, Up
James Newton Howard, Duplicity
Rolfe Kent, Up in the Air
Gabriel Yared, Amelia

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dion Bebe, Nine
Roger Deakins, A Serious Man
Anthony Dod Mantel, Antichrist
Andrew Lesnie, The Lovely Bones
Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds

[Mister Tee]

Best actress has a decent core group -- Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe -- that will make for respectability, but the bench there is woefully thin. What happened to that Annette Bening vehicle? I don't see it on any release schedule. Are we going to end up with the only five candidates getting nominations by default?

Just to echo this...are any of the doubters coming around into thinking that Streep is in for a nomination? At this point, I'd put it in ink. (Zahveed...you really think Melanie Laurent stands a better chance than Streep, not to mention Mulligan?)

Secondly, Amelia obviously tanked this weekend in every way possible. (Which is curious, because although it is bad, it's not so much worse than some biographies which have gotten Oscar nominations.) But I think the question still remains -- in a weak field, could Hilary Swank still place, based solely on the looks-like-an-Oscar-nominee nature of her role? (See Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age.)

Personally, I'd like to think some of the fall Best Actress candidates will prove promising (I quite liked Saoirse Ronan's first nominated role, so I have hopes for her, and Penélope Cruz has become a more exciting actress than I EVER would have imagined as late as 2005.) But on paper it sure doesn't look like a top-drawer field.

I guess you're right that the Blanchett precedent ("even complete critical and financial failure might not be enough to kill Oscar bait") means we can't bury Swank fully -- though the critics sure tried. Theron in North Country might be another recent example of survival.

I haven't heard a single response to Broken Embraces that doesn't consider it second-tier for both Pedro and Penelope. But, I suppose you never know; there wasn't much buzz for Camille Claudel, but Adjani managed a surprise nod.

Who else, outisde the big three (and maybe Cornish)? Kris Tapley keeps insisting on Helen Mirren in The Last Station, but I don't see that on release schedules yet. There's Ronan, and Robin Wright (I guess no longer Penn?) in The Private Lives of Pippa Lee. And there might be some hope for Samantha Morton (who's pulled unlikely nominations before) in The Messenger, which Peter Travers is raving about in the new Rolling Stone. But can you start a best actress campaign from scratch this late in the day? Isn't in like trying to run a campaign for US Senate without a $10 million bankroll?

On another Oscar note: Alot of sites are now promoting Matt Damon for supporting actor for Invictus. May I say how little I want to see a star like Damon pushed in the lower category (at the expense of someone like Christopher Waltz)? It strikes me we see far too many of these big-stars-in-support pushes these days, and the Oscar bloggers are largely at fault. They draw up their lists way too far in advance, and since supporting nominees are, on the whole, hard to identify early (who the hell was Amy Ryan?), they populate their lists with the biggest names they can find. Too often these folk end up nominated for or winning Oscars (Blanchett in Aviator) as a result, leaving lesser-knowns out in the cold.

In fact, if I may expand the argument, I'd say the Oscar bloggers (not us, who wait for actual developments) are taking much of the fun out of following the Academy Awards. According to them, there have already been at least one or two cases of backlash against Precious, as well as countervailing pro pushes. This, all before any civilian has even seen the film, or we've had a single box office result. It's as if these people -- privileged to see films well ahead of time, at screenings or festivals -- get to run their own Virtual Oscars months ahead of time. It's no wonder they then call for the awards to be moved up even further in the year (Dave Poland has seriously suggested early January) -- after all, THEY'RE bored with it by then. (Of course, these are the same people who thought, because of the echo chamber in which they dwell, that the whole world was clamoring for a Kevin O'Connell best sound win) They drain all the life out of what used to be a more fun contest.

Over the last month or two -- thanks to Inglorious Basterds, The Informant!, A Serious Man and An Education, I've become refreshed in my feeling about movies. But I feel less and less attached to the Oscars in the same period. I ought to just stop reading these bozos, but of course it's hard to resist.

[rain Bard]

IFC's on-demand are generally (always?) timed to be simultaneous to the New York premiere. So no, the theatrical run is not first.

I'm sure that the films they acquire are only the ones whose makers have resigned themselves to being left out of the Oscar race. Of course they wouldn't contend anyway; the VOD rule just codifies the self-fulfilling propechy of the industry coddling to "Oscar taste".



Edited By rain Bard on 1256842542

[OscarGuy]

I would have to look the rule up, but I don't think it's prohibited to show on VoD as long as it has its theatrical run first, which I believe it has, but I don't know the specifics of those requirements. There may be a moratorium for such distribution of like 6 months or so. Of course, they might not even care about Oscars at this point.

[Eric]

Also, Antichrist is doing the Video-on-Demand thing, so unless the academy changes the rules, it's ineligible.

Interesting point, but I do think the Academy will have to change this rule before too long. Traditional models of film distribution are on the way out if not dead already.

[Zahveed]

(Zahveed...you really think Melanie Laurent stands a better chance than Streep, not to mention Mulligan?)

I like to add wishful thinking to my lists.

Gotta admire the Quixocity of anyone who doesn't put Mo'Nique's name down in ink.

I forgot about Mo'Nique, which is strange considering the fact I added Precious to several categories. The change was made. I was looking for something to alter in that category anyway.



Edited By Zahveed on 1256799021

[Okri]

Also, Antichrist is doing the Video-on-Demand thing, so unless the academy changes the rules, it's ineligible.

[Eric]

Gotta admire the Quixocity of anyone who doesn't put Mo'Nique's name down in ink.

[The Original BJ]

Best actress has a decent core group -- Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe -- that will make for respectability, but the bench there is woefully thin. What happened to that Annette Bening vehicle? I don't see it on any release schedule. Are we going to end up with the only five candidates getting nominations by default?

Just to echo this...are any of the doubters coming around into thinking that Streep is in for a nomination? At this point, I'd put it in ink. (Zahveed...you really think Melanie Laurent stands a better chance than Streep, not to mention Mulligan?)

Secondly, Amelia obviously tanked this weekend in every way possible. (Which is curious, because although it is bad, it's not so much worse than some biographies which have gotten Oscar nominations.) But I think the question still remains -- in a weak field, could Hilary Swank still place, based solely on the looks-like-an-Oscar-nominee nature of her role? (See Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age.)

Personally, I'd like to think some of the fall Best Actress candidates will prove promising (I quite liked Saoirse Ronan's first nominated role, so I have hopes for her, and Penélope Cruz has become a more exciting actress than I EVER would have imagined as late as 2005.) But on paper it sure doesn't look like a top-drawer field.

[Zahveed]

A few updates to my predictions:

BEST PICTURE:
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

BEST DIRECTOR:
Joel and Ethan Coen - A Serious Man
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
Spike Jonze - Where the Wild Things Are
Rob Marshall - Nine
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

BEST LEAD ACTOR:
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert DeNiro - Everybody's Fine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man

BEST LEAD ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces
Mélanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sibide - Precious
Robin Wright Penn - The Private Lives of Pippa Lee

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jeff Bridges - The Men Who Stare at Goats
Heath Ledger - The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Mark Wahlberg - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Judie Dench - Nine
Zooey Deschanel - (500) Days of Summer
Mo'Nique - Precious
Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Everybody's Fine
The Lovely Bones
The Men Who Stare at Goats
Nine
Precious


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up



Edited By Zahveed on 1256798920

[Penelope]

Are the reviews for A Serious Man really that superlative? I'll admit I haven't bothered to look in the thread because the trailer made the movie look as appealing as Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

[Sabin]

I just watched the trailer for That Evening Sun and pray it's more Shotgun Stories than...well...not. Watching Hal Holbrook just reminds me of how robbed he was of 2007's Best Supporting Actor Oscar. And saying that reminds me of how much Casey Affleck was robbed of 2007's Best Leading Actor Oscar.

[Big Magilla]

In the same vein: it seems an especially inauspicious year to have opened the best picture race to ten contenders. With studio specialty units shutting down left and right in the face of the recession, the field is ominously thin. Realistically, what's out there as yet unscreened? -- Invictus, Lovely Bones, Avatar and Nine. Under the old system, you'd expect 2-3 of them to fall short and be left off the best film slate. This year, this format, each would have to fail on an Amelia level not to qualify.

Do you think this will lead to the possibility of a film that is mostly hated, but with a very small band of die-hard supporters, actually sneaking in to get a Best Picture nomination, even something like Antichrist?

Hated - maybe, reviled, no. Anitchrist falls in the latter category.

[Mister Tee]

I still find this 10 nominees thing difficult to grasp -- it feels like the field is pretty lacking in contenders, but at the same time, you wonder if it just maybe might allow some more off-center choices to place (the above films, Hurt Locker, even A Serious Man, despite my reservations) that wouldn't have under the old system (or a more overcrowded field, like '07.)

Hurt Locker and A Serious Man both have Lone Director written all over them under the old system. Up would also be an unlikely best picture candidate, given Wall E's fate. If we had the old system, only to still-to-open Up in the Air and Precious would seem like truly likely best picture contenders. (Even An Education seems to be doing less-than-stellar box office)

I don't want to say Never, because we don't know what small pockets of absolute lunacy there might be that could win a 10% contest, but certainly Antichrist seems light-years from any Oscars I've ever witnessed. What I'd fear more is the modern equivalent of The Shipping News -- prestigious project with an aggressive campaign. (Remember, though Hallstrom's film failed with the Academy, it did wangle its way into the Broadcast Top 10)

[The Original BJ]

In the same vein: it seems an especially inauspicious year to have opened the best picture race to ten contenders. With studio specialty units shutting down left and right in the face of the recession, the field is ominously thin. Realistically, what's out there as yet unscreened? -- Invictus, Lovely Bones, Avatar and Nine. Under the old system, you'd expect 2-3 of them to fall short and be left off the best film slate. This year, this format, each would have to fail on an Amelia level not to qualify.

Do you think this will lead to the possibility of a film that is mostly hated, but with a very small band of die-hard supporters, actually sneaking in to get a Best Picture nomination, even something like Antichrist?

Antichrist is not going to come within a trillion-mile radius of any Academy Awards I know.

More likely, I have to wonder if all those Star Trek murmurs over the summer won't come close to fruition (though, hopefully if voters skew toward action, it'll be for something less franchise-y, like District 9 or Inglourious Basterds.)

I still find this 10 nominees thing difficult to grasp -- it feels like the field is pretty lacking in contenders, but at the same time, you wonder if it just maybe might allow some more off-center choices to place (the above films, Hurt Locker, even A Serious Man, despite my reservations) that wouldn't have under the old system (or a more overcrowded field, like '07.)