New Predictions

[OscarGuy]

I don't know that Forster was really an out-of-nowhere nominee.

Looking back at my own Hopefuls predictions, I had put him in the list on January 6, which was more than a month before the nominations came out. No, he didn't end up as a nominee prediction of mine, but he was listed as a "possibility".

And I wouldn't have made that prediction alone. I'm sure others had entertained the idea...after all, at the time, we were all betting on Pam Grier to get a nomination, which she should have gotten, but didn't.

[Mister Tee]

I think the general answer is, Forster was the last "no one was even thinking of him" nomination, though there have been any number of "he/she was pretty far down on the list" folk, like Penn '99 (who had received a musical/comedy Globe nod) or Norton '98/Linney last year, who were always in the conversation but never seemed to get precursor mentions.

The kind of nomination BJ is suggesting has been a rare species since the SAGs arrived on the scene. Prior to that, a Laurence Fishburne/Marisa Tomei/Kevin Kline would come along and gobsmack us on nominations morning. Now I think everything is covered in such exhausting detail that even the surprises are predictable.

Oh, and to answer flipp: Marcia Gay Harden had won the NY Critics Award -- a pretty damn solid prelim. Harden in fact has been the rare person far luckier at AMPAS than at the Globes or SAGs -- both her nominations were precursor-free.



Edited By Mister Tee on 1229527750

[Cinemanolis]

Ethan Hawke had a screen actors nomination, I believe.

Right, but this was really the only mention he had received prior to the Oscars. The Sags usually have some surpise nominees such as Gena Rowlands and Marisa Tomei in 'Unhook the Stars', Kevin Kline and Hayden Christensen 'Life as a House', Dakota Fanning 'I Am Sam'.

This year i would really be glad to see one of the following mentioned

Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon
Eddie Marsan - Happy Go Lucky
Bill Irwin - Rachel Getting Married
or even Aaron Eckhart - The Dark Knight



Edited By Cinemanolis on 1229522710

[rudeboy]

Ethan Hawke had a screen actors nomination, I believe.

[flipp525]

Wasn't the Ethan Hawke supporting mention for Training Day an out-of-nowhere nomination? I don't remember him being on anyone's radar (save Damien's sexual SONAR, perhaps).

I'd also like to cite Marcia Gay Harden and Ed Harris in supporting and lead, respectively, for Pollack although I'm quite sure Harden had won a precursor or two before that and had quite a vocal fanbase to boot.

I'm looking forward to some pleasant surprises on nomination morning. A couple of the "surprises" I'd like to see are Samantha Morton for Synecdoche, New York, Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, Gary Oldman for The Dark Knight or Emile Hirsch for Milk (with Franco and Brolin in tow making it the first time three men are nominated from the same film in supporting in years).



Edited By flipp525 on 1229528389

[ITALIANO]

I'm actually starting to waver on Milk and am leaning heavily towards Curious Case of Benjamin Button...I expect it to be a box office hit, which may be just want it needs.

i always assumed the best picture race was between SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON. the only way MILK could win is if it snuck in on a split vote

I swear that I was waiting for someone to say THIS.

[anonymous1980]

It's also interesting to note that two of the "shocker" nominees that I mentioned, Norton and Penn, were nominated at the expense of Jim Carrey whom many people (including myself) were predicting to get a nomination in those years for The Truman Show and Man on the Moon respectively.

FYI: I do believe I was predicting Mark Addy for The Full Monty too along with the other four nominees. I also thought Rupert Everett would miss but most people, I think, were predicting him.



Edited By anonymous on 1229509575

[rudeboy]

Agree wholeheartedly with Sabin on Forster - the best performance in any Tarantino film by a mile, and a joyful surprise among that year's nominations.

It could be argued that Tommy Lee Jones' nomination last year was a surprise - some were predicting a nod in support for No Country for Old Men, but I don't recall many mentions of his leading performance in In the Valley of Elah. Best actor seems to throw up such shockers every once in a while - Norton and Penn as already mentioned, along with Nigel Hawthorne and Laurence Fishburne, neither of whom had any significant precursor mentions. It could happen this year for Josh Brolin (W.), Javier Bardem (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), even Colin Farrell (In Bruges, which has a very strong fanbase).

[Sabin]

I remember predicting Hopkins, Kinnear, Reynolds, and Williams confidently, but thinking that Everett would miss out because My Best Friend's Wedding was a summer trifle and the fact that he is gay meant that a lot of people assumed he wasn't acting. I put my money on Kevin Spacey for L.A. Confidential and remain baffled that he wasn't nominated for what is by far his best performance, but at the time I thought it was between him, Billy Connolly, and Mark Addy for The Full Monty.

Robert Forster survived the unfortunate Jackie Brown meltdown only because he is brilliant. That is the only reason. Once in a while, the best performer is nominated.

[anonymous1980]

When was the last time we had an acting candidate that wasn't on ANYBODY's radar?

Robert Forester is the last one that comes to my mind. Or Keisha Castle Hughes?

How DID Robert Forster get that nomination? Pam Grier and Samuel L. Jackson were getting all the Oscar buzz for Jackie Brown and I believe his spot was expected to go to Rupert Everett for My Best Friend's Wedding.

The other two "shocker" candidates, IMO, were Edward Norton for American History X and Sean Penn for Sweet and Lowdown.

[The Original BJ]

When was the last time we had an acting candidate that wasn't on ANYBODY's radar?

Robert Forester is the last one that comes to my mind. Or Keisha Castle Hughes?

Okay, Forster makes sense (though I wasn't old enough to remember much about that year's race except outright jubilation that Titanic won everything...my how times have changed!).

Castle-Hughes's nomination was indeed a shock, but she was nominated for a SAG prize (albeit in the wrong category), so I don't think you could argue she was off the radar completely. Plus, she had a very vocal fanbase all throughout the second half of the year.

My thought was that a supporting actor nominee no one is really talking about AT ALL could emerge come nomination morning.

[flipp525]

Brolin, with No Country for Old Men W. still in people's minds

Jennifer Connelly Syndrome.

Brolin does good work with an underwritten role, but Franco and Hirsch are both far superior in Milk. Diego Luna gives a very over-the-top performance.

[FilmFan720]

When was the last time we had an acting candidate that wasn't on ANYBODY's radar?

Robert Forester is the last one that comes to my mind. Or Keisha Castle Hughes?



Edited By FilmFan720 on 1229489224

[jack]

Milk, as Magilla (I think) stated, was a run-of the-mill biopics. I enjoyed it, but can't understand the Supporting Actor choices. Franco didn't do anything apart from kiss Sean Penn. I didn't understand Brolin's character. He was good. His one good scene was when he was drunk at Harvey's birthday party. Hirsch, again, had one good scene - when we Harvey first meets him on the street.

Milk was a good movie. I can't see it winning if it's nominated.

The film centers around Penn's performance, but those three actors are quite good in under-written roles. Brolin conveys a sense of a conflicted killer even though the script fails to fill in the blanks. Franco's performance is classic quiet support of the kind that used to win Oscars. Think Fay Bainter in Jezebel and Dean Jagger in Twelve O'Clock High. He won't win but he could very well be nominated. Brolin, with No Country for Old Men W. still in people's minds could be an upset winner, though it seems unlikely that anyone other than the late Heath Ledger will win the award this year.

Emile Hirsch is an also ran this year, but he is also quite good maturing before our eyes.

Penelope, in another post, singled out Diego Luna who I've liked in other projects. Here, though, I thought he over-acted, but maybe it was the way Gus Van Sant wanted him to play the part.

I think Franco has a better chance at a nomination with Pineapple Express.

I agree with you re Brolin. I did some reading about the case after watching the movie, and after posting the above, and hie character's motives were not made all that clear.



Edited By jack on 1229474874

[Big Magilla]

Milk, as Magilla (I think) stated, was a run-of the-mill biopics. I enjoyed it, but can't understand the Supporting Actor choices. Franco didn't do anything apart from kiss Sean Penn. I didn't understand Brolin's character. He was good. His one good scene was when he was drunk at Harvey's birthday party. Hirsch, again, had one good scene - when we Harvey first meets him on the street.

Milk was a good movie. I can't see it winning if it's nominated.

The film centers around Penn's performance, but those three actors are quite good in under-written roles. Brolin conveys a sense of a conflicted killer even though the script fails to fill in the blanks. Franco's performance is classic quiet support of the kind that used to win Oscars. Think Fay Bainter in Jezebel and Dean Jagger in Twelve O'Clock High. He won't win but he could very well be nominated. Brolin, with No Country for Old Men W. still in people's minds could be an upset winner, though it seems unlikely that anyone other than the late Heath Ledger will win the award this year.

Emile Hirsch is an also ran this year, but he is also quite good maturing before our eyes.

Penelope, in another post, singled out Diego Luna who I've liked in other projects. Here, though, I thought he over-acted, but maybe it was the way Gus Van Sant wanted him to play the part.