January Predictions

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Post by jack »

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See that's the thing. When was the last time a legendary director won an "much deserved" Oscar AND had his film win Best Picture? It hasn't happened to my recollection...


Would Spielberg count?


He most definitely would. He may even hand Scorsese his first.






Sorry if I'm being a prick over the whole Scorsese/The Departed. I just don't get the insistence by some that Dreamgirls is going to win Best Picture. It hasn’t won anything of substance so far outside of Supporting Actress.

Maybe it'll sweep the remainder of the precursors: the PGA, SAG, WGA, DGA, NLF, SPL, and the English Premiership etc... I just don’t see it toppling THIS Marty Scorsese picture... The Departed looks like it may be Scorsese Schindler's List.
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Post by Okri »

See that's the thing. When was the last time a legendary director won an "much deserved" Oscar AND had his film win Best Picture? It hasn't happened to my recollection...


Would Spielberg count?
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Post by jack »

Perhaps you're ignoring the Crash win a little too prematurely, OscarGuy. Maybe the Academy is changing its tune to Best Picture winners?

Okay, even I don't believe that. Crash was good, but not Best Picture GOOD.

However, you seem to be very insistent that Dreamgirls will triumph. I don't buy that. Why would the Academy chose Dreamgirls for Picture over Scorsese film? This isn't like Polanski's Director win, then, for some reason, Chicago taking Picture. This is Martin Scorsese finally winning Best Director. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think some may be underestimating the enormity of Marty winning. The voters are sitting in their leather sofas proudly ticking Marty's name as Best Director, do you really think that stop and select something else as Best Picture?

As I've said before, I haven't yet seen Dreamgirls, but it can't be that good as to derail Marty Scorsese...
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Post by OscarGuy »

See that's the thing. When was the last time a legendary director won an "much deserved" Oscar AND had his film win Best Picture? It hasn't happened to my recollection...

I can understand that line of thought, Sonic, but I really think the templates hold more true than anything these days. Crash is only a slight exception, but it does fall into the "serious" subject matter content of past BP wins.

The Academy has proven itself lately NOT to be sentimental. How many of our past sure things failed to win? Anyone remember Lauren Bacall? The Departed and The Queen don't seem like Best Picture fits. The Academy likes to honor big employers. Scorsese ISN'T a big employer when it comes to films. If a film like The Aviator couldn't propel him to victory, why would The Departed?

Critics have jumped on the bandwagon, but I really think that is more a concerted effort to try and force the Academy into recognizing him. And if you don't think critics talk and all think the same thing, then you're mistaken. Those groups are much more able to conspire towards a certain outcome than a body as large as the Academy.


I still think Dreamgirls is going to win based on its glitz, glamor and industry employability. I could see Babel winning because of its international feel and Crash-style similarities. I could see United 93 winning as a recognition of the lives lost on 9/11. I could see Letters from Iwo Jima being recognized for daring to step out of the box and for an American director to tackle a subject from the "opposing" force's point of view.

There are things about this year's race that seem reminiscent of 1972. Taking critics out of the equation, I could see something along the lines of Cabaret (read: Dreamgirls) taking every major prize except one of the top 6. This time, it could be the switch of Best Picture and Best Director. With Scorsese taking Dir and DG taking Picture. I could see it shaping up that way, but I really don't see The Departed as a Pic-Dir alignment.
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Post by jack »

Quote (OscarGuy @ Jan. 03 2007,20:48)
What is it about The Departed that doesn't feel right? I liked the movie but it doesn't seem like any other Oscar winner. It's not big and beautiful...it's very normal. It isn't a message movie and I just can't understand the love/appreciation that would earn it a Best Pic win.

Don't concentrate on Best Picture templates. The love/appreciation for The Departed is really love and appreciation for Martin Scorsese, although I do think people genuinely love the film even if they may not believe it's the best of the year. And that may get it over the hump where Gangs of New York and (to a greater extent) The Aviator stumbled.

We've all heard of nominees that win Oscars for riding on the coattails of a very successful and much loved film. The Departed winning would be an example of a film riding on a nominee's (Scorsese's) coattails. That may be what feels bizarre about this. Has it ever happened before?

No, but it's going to happen on Feb 25th. The love for Scorsese will propel The Departed to a Best Picture win... Fantastic.

I'm gutted as I'll be in Poland and will miss the show.

Okay, obviously, I don't know that The Departed will win, but it's looking good. I've yet to see Dreamgirls (the only, as of now, possible alternative), but I have seen The Queen, Babel, Little Miss Sunshine and United 93 (other possible nominees) and as of right now The Departed is by far the best, so I'm rooting for it.
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Post by Sonic Youth »

OscarGuy wrote:What is it about The Departed that doesn't feel right? I liked the movie but it doesn't seem like any other Oscar winner. It's not big and beautiful...it's very normal. It isn't a message movie and I just can't understand the love/appreciation that would earn it a Best Pic win.

Don't concentrate on Best Picture templates. The love/appreciation for The Departed is really love and appreciation for Martin Scorsese, although I do think people genuinely love the film even if they may not believe it's the best of the year. And that may get it over the hump where Gangs of New York and (to a greater extent) The Aviator stumbled.

We've all heard of nominees that win Oscars for riding on the coattails of a very successful and much loved film. The Departed winning would be an example of a film riding on a nominee's (Scorsese's) coattails. That may be what feels bizarre about this. Has it ever happened before?
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Post by jack »

I can see The Departed winning Best Picture.


Like-wise.

I can't see the Academy finaly giving Scorsese his Best Director without honouring his film.
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Post by Anon »

OscarGuy wrote:For some reason, I could see any movie BUT The Departed winning.

I agree with you, OscarGuy. I can see Marty finally winning his coveted trophy, but I just have a feeling this win won't match up with Best Picture.

Dreamgirls could be the one to walk away with Best Picture, or maybe one of Clint's movies (but not even these); maybe United 93.

Is it just me, or is it quite clear that there really is no frontrunner for Best Picture this year (compared to what everyone thought was a foregone conclusion last year with Brokeback Mountain - until Crash, or dare I say homophobia, dashed its hopes).

The Departed (or Dreamgirls for that matter) isn't a foregone conclusion by any stretch of the imagination, thus making this year's Best Pic race one of the most unpredictable in a long while.
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Post by Hustler »

I can see The Departed winning Best Picture.
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Post by OscarGuy »

What is it about The Departed that doesn't feel right? I liked the movie but it doesn't seem like any other Oscar winner. It's not big and beautiful...it's very normal. It isn't a message movie and I just can't understand the love/appreciation that would earn it a Best Pic win.

I think the closest comparison thematically and physically is The French Connection...

For some reason, I could see any movie BUT The Departed winning.

I mean it may not be Dreamgirls that wins...but something inside me, maybe premonition, I don't know, but something tells me The Departed is NOT going to be Best Pic...
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Post by Penelope »

Don't forget another Urban Cowboy song, "Could I Have This Dance," the favorite wedding song of the early 80s.
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Post by Mister Tee »

Penelope wrote:
Reza wrote:
mashari wrote:
That, too! But listen to the lyrics of the heartfelt ballad It's My Turn and you will see what I'm talking about. It was right before her departure from Motown. I hear Berry even was taken aback a bit once he learned of it lol.

Why wasn't this song nominated? Wasn't it part of the soundtrack to the Jill Clayburgh film - I'm Dancing as Fast as I Can?

Right star, wrong film: it's the title tune from It's My Turn starring Clayburgh and Michael Douglas.
It happens there was an unusually large number of hit songs available in 1980 -- Call Me from American Gigolo, Lookin' for Love and Look What You Done For Me from Urban Cowboy are others I can recall off the top of my head that failed to be nominated. (Inside Oscar probably has a fuller list)
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Post by Penelope »

Reza wrote:
mashari wrote:
Penelope wrote:
I thought "I'm Coming Out" was supposed to be her cryptic emancipation from Gordy?

That, too! But listen to the lyrics of the heartfelt ballad It's My Turn and you will see what I'm talking about. It was right before her departure from Motown. I hear Berry even was taken aback a bit once he learned of it lol.

Why wasn't this song nominated? Wasn't it part of the soundtrack to the Jill Clayburgh film - I'm Dancing as Fast as I Can?
Right star, wrong film: it's the title tune from It's My Turn starring Clayburgh and Michael Douglas.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston

"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Post by Reza »

mashari wrote:
Penelope wrote:
mashari wrote:Curiously, it mirrors Diana Ross' hit It's My Turn in which she cryptically emancipated herself from Berry Gordy(Did anyone else catch this?).

I thought "I'm Coming Out" was supposed to be her cryptic emancipation from Gordy?

That, too! But listen to the lyrics of the heartfelt ballad It's My Turn and you will see what I'm talking about. It was right before her departure from Motown. I hear Berry even was taken aback a bit once he learned of it lol.
Why wasn't this song nominated? Wasn't it part of the soundtrack to the Jill Clayburgh film - I'm Dancing as Fast as I Can?
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Post by mashari »

Penelope wrote:
mashari wrote:Curiously, it mirrors Diana Ross' hit It's My Turn in which she cryptically emancipated herself from Berry Gordy(Did anyone else catch this?).

I thought "I'm Coming Out" was supposed to be her cryptic emancipation from Gordy?

That, too! But listen to the lyrics of the heartfelt ballad It's My Turn and you will see what I'm talking about. It was right before her departure from Motown. I hear Berry even was taken aback a bit once he learned of it lol.
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