New Developments III

[Big Magilla]

Midterm performance was considered a win for the Democrats by most strategists because the Republicans didn't win as many seats as was expected, that and the fact that most if not all of the subsequent replacement races have been in their favor. You would think that would turn the key in the Dems' direction but it's Lichtman's key. He can turn it whichever way he thinks best.

There's no doubt that the Democratic candidate will once again win the popular vote but the problem as with every election from 2000 to the present is the Electoral College which makes it a nailbiter.

I'm not bothered by these ridiculous polls that show Trump winning. The polltakers are not getting accurate samples. They're reliant on people who either don't have caller i.d. on their phones and those who do that pick up the phone anyway. I know very few people who fall into that group.

What bothers me are people's perceptions. The N.Y. Times, on the same day that they released their latest idiotic poll, released an article about an interview with twelve women of various ages and backgrounds who voted for Trump in 2020, asking them if they would vote for him gain. Ten out of twelve said they would, two said they weren't sure. They all said that his behavior, though atrocious, didn't bother them, that it was their job, not the president's, to teach their children morals.

Every one of them said that Trump was strong, a good businessman who spoke his mind and followed through on what he said he would do, all of which they would know was b.s. if they bothered to read a newspaper or got their news from somewhere other than Fox. They all found Biden wishy-washy, someone without a mind of his own who read from scripts prepared by others, which is the misinformation they're getting from those same false news sources. Issues didn't matter. Most said their number one concern was the economy. By the economy they don't mean the national economy. They mean their personal economy. Even if their wages have increased faster than the cost of food and gas for them, they still feel cheated. What they think Trump is going to do for them, I don't know, and I don't think they do either.

I could understand their thinking, as foolish as it is, if they hadn't already seen what he did and didn't do for four years in the White House from January 2017-January 2021.

[Sabin]

For the last few weeks, Allan Lichtman has been telling everyone that all the keys have been settled except for four. Last night, he gave a projection of how they're leaning right now (don't you love politics?):
-No Third Party (True)
-No Social Unrest (True)
-Foreign-Military Success (False)
-No Foreign-Military Failure (False)

Currently, he gives Biden 9 True Keys and 4 False Ones. I... don't know about that.

-Third Party: Lichtman says RFK Jr. doesn't turn the third party key. I don't understand that. RFK Jr. may not be on every ballot but he's polling pretty high and will play a part in every state he factors into because unfortunately we have an electoral college system. People can say that RFK Jr. takes more from Trump than Biden. I don't think that's conclusive but either way Ross Perot cut both ways and Lichtman still counted his candidacy against the incumbent both times. There's also going to be showings for Jill Stein and Cornel West. Third Party candidates are scattered this election but there is a lot of third party energy. My understanding is that it's not just one candidate that has to get 5%+ it's a combined total. I think that's going to happen in 2024.

-Social Unrest & Foreign-Military Failure: Lichtman says there is no social unrest but Israel-Hamas War is leaning towards a Foreign-Military Failure. I don't understand these rulings but if anything they should be flipped at least for now. Forgive me for putting it bluntly, when was the last time a foreign conflict with no loss of American life has turned this key? Afghanistan might fit the bill better but that was ages ago. Meanwhile, this is a sustained, months long protest that has the DNC so concerned they're switching it to mostly virtual. There have been questions over the years that Lichtman's system doesn't account for changing in social media. I think this might be one of them.

-Foreign Military Success: this is leaning false for him which I would agree. Ukraine feels less like a success rather than "something we kinda had to do."

Beyond that, I take issue with some of his certainties:

-Midterm Performance: because the incumbent party holds less seats after this midterm than the previous, this is a strike against the incumbent party. This confuses me because the midterm showing became the first sign that Biden could win. Special elections have been almost uniformly going the Democrats way. Shouldn't this be a plus?

-Short-Term & Long-Term Economy: Lichtman has both of these going for Biden. I don't disagree but it doesn't take inflation into account. It's bizarre to me that one of the top three concerns in the country plays no part in this system. According to Lichtman, inflation didn't matter in 1976 election either.

-Policy Change: Lichtman has this key going in favor of Biden for all of his infrastructure investments but also the sharp change in policy from Trump. The former, I take issue with because ordinary Americans haven't felt the effects of it yet. It feels like a talking point for terminally online Democrats. The latter seems very hard to define, but to his credit if you look back in history usually when the key turns it does make a shift in policy. What holds me back from saying Biden gets this is (just like with Obama) half of America thinks he's beholden to the radical left while the other think he's the same as Trump. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve this key, I'm just really agnostic that it's as sure a thing as Lichtman is saying.

-Scandal: Lichtman states the scandal key has not turned for Biden. I agree. That said, the only reason why this key hasn't turned is because Republicans didn't get the Senate. It's distressing that this key is now a weapon that can be turned whenever one party hold both houses. It's a weapon now. Which means if Republicans won the Senate, Biden would lose this key and possibly the election for nonsense.

Similarly to inflation, I have to wonder where one of the country's other three big concerns should play out: the border. This is one part media bullshit, one part happenstance, and one part an obstructionist asshole getting in the way of compromise, but either way people aren't letting it go. Could this be a Foreign-Military Failure? Or maybe there's just a perception that the world is more unstable now that it was before Trump left.

Anyway, these are my thoughts. What do I know? If you were to ask me, I would say:

Biden benefits from:
-Midterm Performance (totally anathema to the Keys System but I think it's his best selling point)
-No Nomination Contest
-Incumbency
-Short-Term Economy
-No Scandal
-A Lack of a Charismatic Challenger

I think Biden suffers from:
-A Lack of Foreign-Military Success
-A Lack of Charisma

I'm on the fence about:
-Third Party Candidacies (leaning false)
-Long-Term Economy (as a sub in for inflation) (leaning true)
-Policy Change (leaning... true, I just think the consensus is terminally online)
-No Social Unrest (leaning false)
-No Foreign-Military Failure (leaning false)

[Big Magilla]

Unfortunately, Lindsay Graham is not the worst of the worst.

He huffs and he puffs but he doesn't blow the house down like Tommy Tuberville or stand a chance of becoming Trump's VP candidate like J.D. Vance.

[Reza]

Thank you Sabin & danfrank for weighing in on this piece of turd. Checked him out on youtube. He is absolutely rabid in his interviews. Incredible!!

[danfrank]

Who is this madman and why would he even make such a statement in this day and age? Wonder how he would feel his home State getting nuked instead.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-linds ... t-decision

He’s just a despicable being. He’s well-known nationally primarily because he frequently engages in attention-seeking behaviors such as this. This one crosses far over the line and deserves censure from his colleagues in the Senate. Given the state of the Republican Party these days this is unfortunately not likely to happen. The U.S. press isn’t giving this story much attention because Graham’s words don’t carry much weight here.

[Sabin]

Reza wrote
Who is this madman and why would he even make such a statement in this day and age? Wonder how he would feel his home State getting nuked instead.

Oh God. That's Lindsay Graham. South Carolina Republican Senator. You don't really need to pay attention to him. I think it's fair to say he's one of the biggest war hawks in the country but also one of the least respected Senators. Democrats hate him for being an extremist obstructionist war hawk. Republicans hate him for being a moderate member of the establishment (and some hate him for being a war hawk). I think if you were to take a poll of which Senator today has the politics most deplored by most Americans Lindsay Graham might come out on top.

If you would ask me to describe Graham in one word, I would say "corrupt." There are lots of rumors about him. One of which is he's bought out by the military industrial complex. There are... other rumors as well. But I'm talking corruption on a deeper level. His soul is bought out in a deeper way than your average politician (or maybe I'm being naive). He started off as a petty Reagan-Gingrich Republican who attacked Bill Clinton. Then he became a Senator of some respect for at least being open to bipartisanship. Then the Tea Party took over and his war hawkishness and openness to bipartisan efforts came under fire so what did he do? He ditched the bipartisanship and just became the most war hawkish Republican in the Senate. Hilary Clinton (with whom he came into Senate at roughly the same time) remarked that "I don’t know what’s happened to Lindsey Graham. He used to believe in climate change... It's like he had a brain switch." Graham deserves some credit for being the Republican most hostile to Donald Trump, the one most open to calling him racist, but two years into his Presidency he became his biggest cheerleader. Actually, that's putting it mildly. He encouraged Donald Trump to not concede the election but wouldn't join on the "stop the steal" bandwagon, which is another way of saying he'll fan the flames of insurrection but won't join in on the barbecue. His one consistency is war hawkishness.

I know you didn't ask for a history lesson but I can't stress enough. This guy sucks.

[Reza]

Who is this madman and why would he even make such a statement in this day and age? Wonder how he would feel his home State getting nuked instead.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-linds ... t-decision

[Sonic Youth]

I'd vote for the worm.

[Sabin]

Onto more normal news, a worm ate RFK Jr’s brain.

[danfrank]

"Look, me shooting my dog isn't a secret. Everyone in South Dakota knows I shot my dog. It's very public knowledge."

"I want people to know the truth. That dog I had? It wasn't a nice dog. It was a piece of shit. It had to die."

"I would like to be Vice President. First thing you gotta know about me. One time I had a dog. I shot it. It was the right thing to do. I don't know how you choose to introduce yourself and say hi, but that's how I do it."

"Wanna know another dog that deserves to die? President Biden's. Commander. I'll mention that dog by name. I have strong opinions on which dogs deserve to die and which dogs don't. If a dog crosses the line, I'll kill it myself."


I don't know if this is the worst audition for Vice President of all time but it's so unbelievably stupid.

Yes, and all said behind about two pounds of poorly applied makeup. She’s not recognizable as human to me.

[Sabin]

"Look, me shooting my dog isn't a secret. Everyone in South Dakota knows I shot my dog. It's very public knowledge."

"I want people to know the truth. That dog I had? It wasn't a nice dog. It was a piece of shit. It had to die."

"I would like to be Vice President. First thing you gotta know about me. One time I had a dog. I shot it. It was the right thing to do. I don't know how you choose to introduce yourself and say hi, but that's how I do it."

"Wanna know another dog that deserves to die? President Biden's. Commander. I'll mention that dog by name. I have strong opinions on which dogs deserve to die and which dogs don't. If a dog crosses the line, I'll kill it myself."


I don't know if this is the worst audition for Vice President of all time but it's so unbelievably stupid.

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
Trying to predict Trump's mind, including the VP choice he will make, always appears to be a lost cause.

Bloomberg is now reporting Trump’s final four are Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, and JD Vance. Which means he’s probably picking JD Vance, right?

I was wondering why Doug Burgum? He’s worth over a billion. Trump needs money.

It can’t be Little Marco. Right?

I don’t know if I would laugh if he picked Tim Scott or be terrified.

[Big Magilla]

Without a Brain.jpg (185.85 KiB) Viewed 4488 times

[Greg]

What do you make of DeSantis' meeting with Trump? After the Kristi Noem meltdown, I don't see a strong VP candidate for him. Everyone else comes with significant problems (besides the fact that they're all obviously insane) and he needs money.

Trying to predict Trump's mind, including the VP choice he will make, always appears to be a lost cause.

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
And now, DeSantis just signed a law criminalizing food he doesn't like.

What do you make of DeSantis' meeting with Trump? After the Kristi Noem meltdown, I don't see a strong VP candidate for him. Everyone else comes with significant problems (besides the fact that they're all obviously insane) and he needs money.