SAG Thoughts/Winners to be Added

[Big Magilla]

Cillian Murphy was very good in Oppenheimer but it was the role. Any actor who had been cast would likely have done as well.

The performances that it would be hard to find another actor to have done as well with were those of Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers and Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction. I would give it to either one or the other ahead of Murphy.

[Okri]

Cillian Murphy is our new frontrunner. But why wouldn't he have already been our frontrunner? He won the Golden Globe and BAFTA. It really does seem like there was a mindset predetermined that Oppenheimer's coattails wouldn't extend to him despite having the titular role in a Best Picture juggernaut. I haven't really heard many reasons why he wouldn't be in the mix. "Remember Peter O'Toole in Lawrence of Arabia?" Yes, he was up against Gregory Peck in To Kill a Mockingbird. The Holdovers isn't To Kill a Mockinbird (Oppenheimer isn't Lawrence either). The lack of consideration has always been bizarre to me when he is (IMO) unquestionably the film's strongest asset. On the other hand, I've always had a hard time seeing The Holdovers as a movie that wins three Oscars (actor, supporting actor, and screenplay). It just seems like the kind of thing that wins maybe one. That seems to be the likeliest scenario now.

I don't quite get it myself, even though I also felt it. I thought Murphy's work was a little too interior whereas AMPAS likes demonstrative. There are enough examples where interior work in a best picture juggernaut loses out to something more demonstrative (Neeson, Fiennes). There are also examples where the best picture coattails weren't long enough (Ejiofor, Keaton). I think prognosticators, including myself, made a narrative out of those examples. That said, I also stuck with "Giamatti isn't even getting nominated" longer then I should have.

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
Actually, there are great similarities between Oppenheimer and Lawrence Of Arabia. They are both 3-hour-or-plus historical epics with titular characters who are tragic heroes.

Oh, sure! I just mean it's not as good IMO.

That said, I do need to see it again.

[Greg]

The Holdovers isn't To Kill a Mockinbird (Oppenheimer isn't Lawrence either).

Actually, there are great similarities between Oppenheimer and Lawrence Of Arabia. They are both 3-hour-or-plus historical epics with titular characters who are tragic heroes.

[Mister Tee]

Mister Tee wrote
For best actor and supporting actor, it's 2002.

In 2003, Bill Murray won the BAFTA but Jonny Depp won the SAG. And Sean Penn won the Golden Globe (and the Critics Choice). Which means Penn pulled in Giamatti’s tally (also the previous nominations guy) while Depp and Murray were… well, I guess the equation doesn’t work.

Yeah, I forgot 2003. Which was pretty much the dark ages, in terms of Oscar concurrence -- BAFTA was still making choices like Thandie Newton in 2005, and Colin Firth/Carey Mulligan in 2009. Post-that, they've been more seemingly hell-bent, like the Broadcasters, on forecasting the Academy. (The real culprit is how many US voters they've allowed into their pool.)

2002 would still be the last time the same person won SAG and BAFTA but lost the Oscar -- as a matter of fact, both Daniel Day-Lewis and Christopher Walken fit that criteria.

[mlrg]

mlrg wrote
I’m afraid we are heading to a very dull Oscar ceremony.

... but aren't half of the categories a coin flip?

Yes, but those don’t heat up the room during the ceremony.

[Sabin]

mlrg wrote
I’m afraid we are heading to a very dull Oscar ceremony.

... but aren't half of the categories a coin flip?

[mlrg]

After watching the ceremony I felt a kind of indifference towards the winners overall, except Lily Gladstone. She was the only one that got a standing ovation which makes me believe that she will win the Oscar.

I’m afraid we are heading to a very dull Oscar ceremony.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
For best actor and supporting actor, it's 2002.

In 2003, Bill Murray won the BAFTA but Jonny Depp won the SAG. And Sean Penn won the Golden Globe (and the Critics Choice). Which means Penn pulled in Giamatti’s tally (also the previous nominations guy) while Depp and Murray were… well, I guess the equation doesn’t work.

[Sabin]

What did we learn?

Assuming Oppenheimer wins the PGA tonight, it will be one of two films since 2010 to win the BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and SAG, the other being The King's Speech and Argo. I'm trying to think of the last time I was so sure early on in the year what the Best Picture winner was going to be and nothing changed.

Same with Downey, Jr. and Randolph. Those races are done.

Cillian Murphy is our new frontrunner. But why wouldn't he have already been our frontrunner? He won the Golden Globe and BAFTA. It really does seem like there was a mindset predetermined that Oppenheimer's coattails wouldn't extend to him despite having the titular role in a Best Picture juggernaut. I haven't really heard many reasons why he wouldn't be in the mix. "Remember Peter O'Toole in Lawrence of Arabia?" Yes, he was up against Gregory Peck in To Kill a Mockingbird. The Holdovers isn't To Kill a Mockinbird (Oppenheimer isn't Lawrence either). The lack of consideration has always been bizarre to me when he is (IMO) unquestionably the film's strongest asset. On the other hand, I've always had a hard time seeing The Holdovers as a movie that wins three Oscars (actor, supporting actor, and screenplay). It just seems like the kind of thing that wins maybe one. That seems to be the likeliest scenario now.

Finally, there's Lily Gladstone, probably bolstered by her film's ensemble nomination, making Best Actress the hot race to watch of the night. Maybe of a few years, to be honest. This is different from "We don't know who is going to win." I just realized something I hadn't thought of before: is one of the reasons for that because both Gladstone and Stone are of the same age cohort?There are similar dynamics to Yeoh and Gladstone winning but with Yeoh, it was honoring a middle-aged woman for a lifetime of work that felt under-honored (up against another middle-aged woman who had been sufficiently honored). Gladstone is different. She's emerging and ascendant as not just an actor but a creative producer. Emma Stone is an actor-producer as well. That's the new thing to be.

We could go into the past and look at what happens when SAG and BAFTA split and where the Academy ends up honoring but I have to imagine the answer is somewhere between 50/50 and doesn't matter. I'm still inclined to say Emma Stone (because I still think BAFTA ignoring Gladstone outright is significant) but not with much certainty. Gonna be a fun night!

[Reza]

So Emma Stone wins at Bafta. Lily Gladstone wins at SAG.

.....and Annette Bening wins the Oscar!!

Yeah, yeah.....wishful thinking. But what a buzz if it happens

I'm the only one wanting this to happen. Even Bening knows it ain't happening. She was a no show at the ceremony.

[Reza]

Geena Davis and Jeff Goldblum have amazing chemistry for people who've been divorced for three decades.

Oh wow, the minute the two arrived I kept thinking what connection the two had apart from being co-stars in The Fly. And I couldn't figure it out.

Ofcourse they were married to each other way back then.

[Mister Tee]

Well, they tried hard to take all the fizz out of the Oscars, but faltered at the last minute, saints be praised. At least one category is genuinely alive. (And thank god the WGA's are late this year, so they can't ruin the screenplay competition.)

That guy doing the "interviews" during what would have been commercials was unwatchable from what little of the red carpet i saw, so I chose to mute every minute of him.

Kenneth Branagh really comes from that "knows how to give a dignified speech and still sound human" British isles tradition.

Geena Davis and Jeff Goldblum have amazing chemistry for people who've been divorced for three decades.

[Big Magilla]

Can we agree the problem with awards shows isn’t the commercials?

After this mess, yes!

[Reza]

So Emma Stone wins at Bafta. Lily Gladstone wins at SAG.

.....and Annette Bening wins the Oscar!!

Yeah, yeah.....wishful thinking. But what a buzz if it happens