Oscar Nominations Announced

[Sonic Youth]

Sonic Youth wrote
but also displaced native people in the making of the film,

No indigenous people wrote, shot, or directed the movie. Something to that effect.

See, I'm too literal-minded. I thought she meant something like they forced native Americans into homelessness while filming on their tribal lands, or something.

[Sabin]

Sonic Youth wrote
but also displaced native people in the making of the film,

No indigenous people wrote, shot, or directed the movie. Something to that effect.

I'm also seeing a lot of "THEY DIDN'T NOMINATE THE WOMEN FROM BARBIE!" while ignoring America Ferrara's nomination.
(Also not like it matters but the men who shot and edited Barbie weren't nominated while the women who costumed and production designed the film were. At least there was gender parity among the song nominees!)

I knew that when Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie were ignored that there would be a backlash. The backlash to the backlash has been great. Mary McNamara (LA Times) is getting clowned for saying: "If only Barbie had done a little time as a sex worker. Or barely survived becoming the next victim in a mass murder plot. Or stood accused of shoving Ken out of the Dream House’s top window." She basically downplayed Lily Gladstone's nomination and suggested jokingly "If only Barbie was ethnically cleansed, she would've been nominated." Which, y'know, that's a take.

[Sonic Youth]

A few female Facebook friends are scorching the earth about the Barbie snubs. Scorsese seems to be their main target. The complaints range from, they always feel they have to reward Scorsese every time he makes a movie, does he really need another Oscar? and I can't remember the last time a woman was nominated for a comedic performance recently. These are professional lawyers and university staff, mind you. I don't expect most people to take an interest in AMPAS history, but they could at least double check some of these things. I did point out that Scorsese only has one Oscar which he didn't win until his late 60s, but I mostly let these things be.

But there was one comment that struck me, about Killers: "seems on brand. let’s give honors to a film that not only features a situation that caused great harm in reality, but also displaced native people in the making of the film, all while ignoring the contributions of women."

Displaced in the making of the film? Does anyone have any idea what this is referring to? Did I miss something?

[Jefforey Smith]

That said, I refuse to count out Gosling for a win.

I agree. Best Supporting Actor was the only category in the Golden Globes pool in which I designated a runner-up: Gosling.

[Okri]

So Hilary Clinton tweeted about Gerwig/Robbie missing nominations.

I'm... conflicted.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Foster is not going to win a third Oscar for Nyad over Randolph, but I wouldn't rule her out taking home a third Oscar in the not-too-distant future.

This…

Her nod may be some kind of comeback (her performance in The Mauritanian may be the first hint of this process) so yes… a third Oscar, depending on future projects does not seem like a wild idea.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
A. Sabin's early thoughts that Past Lives wouldn't get anything outside of picture/screenplay

I think this is the most right I've been about a movie all year.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
She's going to have to stop supporting anti-Semite Mel Gibson for a lot of people to get behind her.

They nominated him for Best Director and his film for Best Picture back in 2016. I don't think Mel Gibson will ever be back fully in the mainstream but I think he generally beat it with his friends in the Academy.

I don't see her support of Mel Gibson standing in the way of her winning anything.

To be clear: I don't think Jodie Foster will beat Da'Vine Joy Randolph.

[OscarGuy]

She's going to have to stop supporting anti-Semite Mel Gibson for a lot of people to get behind her.

[Big Magilla]

Foster is not going to win a third Oscar for Nyad over Randolph, but I wouldn't rule her out taking home a third Oscar in the not-too-distant future.

[mlrg]

For the last ten years, the only true upsets (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins) run counter to that pattern: someone from a Best Picture nominee beating someone who isn’t.

Plus, they were all brits. The British contingent in the acting branch has a lot of weight.

[Sabin]

Because we haven’t seen SAG or BAFTA play out, I don’t think we can really know what’s an upset or not. Right now, Ryan Gosling looks like an upset. If he wins the SAG, it won’t seem that way. That said, I refuse to count out Gosling for a win. It is unlikely to happen but he’s the character of the year.

I’be heard rumblings that Jodie Foster’s True Detective season helps her for Nyad. I don’t think that’s the case. For the last ten years, the only true upsets (Rylance, Colman, Hopkins) run counter to that pattern: someone from a Best Picture nominee beating someone who isn’t. Foster is only helped because she almost certainly has a larger personal fan base in the industry than Randolph. Also, a larger role in a Boomer-bait film.

[Big Magilla]

Bening is not going to win. The nomination is enough. It gives her representation in four decades.

Hüller is the come from behind candidate who could win.

[Okri]

I think best actress is as close to a jump ball as we will get, but Bening winning for Nyad would be like Glenn Close winning for Albert Nobbs. I think she's squarely 5th.

I also think there's something weird about how AMPAS has responded to that coterie of actresses that came to prominence in the 80s and early 90s and just how few if them went on to win an Oscar.

[HarryGoldfarb]

I've accepted that Cillian Murphy (who absolutely deserved his nom) will be passed over in favor of Giamatti.

I think Murphy will win as part of a 9-award sweep for Oppenheimer -- Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, and Sound. In addition, I'm guessing Barbie for Original Song, Production Design, and Costume Design; The Holdovers for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress; Poor Things for Lead Actress and Makeup And Hairstyling; Mission Impossible -- Dead Reckoning Part One for Visual Effects; The Zone Of Interest for International Feature; 20 Days in Mariupol for International Feature; and, The Boy and the Heron for Animated Feature. I have absolutely no idea about the shorts.

These predictions seem somewhat correct.

However, what are the chances of an upset in one of the acting categories? While I agree Murphy, Downey and Randolph are locks for the win in their categories there could be an upset in the Best Actress category with Annette Bening taking home the Oscar instead of Stone or Gladstone.

Hard to envision… when was the last time a not-so expected nominee ended up victorious? Tomei comes to mind, maybe Marcia Gay Harden. Bening was definitely in the conversation but the nomination can be considered her reward. Having said this, this nomination may be the definitive overdue narrative reinforcer that will play a role in any subsequent nomination she may get.