Sonic Youth wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:58 pm
I've accepted that Cillian Murphy (who absolutely deserved his nom) will be passed over in favor of Giamatti.
I think Murphy will win as part of a 9-award sweep for Oppenheimer -- Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, and Sound. In addition, I'm guessing Barbie for Original Song, Production Design, and Costume Design; The Holdovers for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress; Poor Things for Lead Actress and Makeup And Hairstyling; Mission Impossible -- Dead Reckoning Part One for Visual Effects; The Zone Of Interest for International Feature; 20 Days in Mariupol for International Feature; and, The Boy and the Heron for Animated Feature. I have absolutely no idea about the shorts.
These predictions seem somewhat correct.
However, what are the chances of an upset in one of the acting categories? While I agree Murphy, Downey and Randolph are locks for the win in their categories there could be an upset in the Best Actress category with Annette Bening taking home the Oscar instead of Stone or Gladstone.
Campaigns aside, I think these nominations were pretty much set by the end of the year.
Traditionally, I personally only award the top six categories.
Although I only have five nominees for Best Picture, I do maintain lists of my top ten films of the year. I agreed with eight of the ten Oscar nominees including American Fiction sight unseen. My list includes All of Us Strangers and Saltburn instead of Barbie and The Zone of Interest although only All of Us Strangers made it into my predictions in place of American Fiction. Past Lives, Oppenheimer, The Holdovers, Poor Things, and Anatomy of a Fall make my top five in that order.
I agree with four of the five nominees in Best Actor - Domingo, Giamatti, Murphy, and Wright who I've been a fan of since the 1990s and slotted in without actually having seen his performance. Andrew Scott gets my fifth slot over Bradley Cooper. Barry Keoghan and Teo Loo also rank higher than Cooper with me.
I also agree with four of the five Best Actress nominees - Bening, Gladstone, Hüller, and Stone. Greta Lee is my fifth pick over Mulligan and Robbie.
I agree with three of the Best Supporting Actor nominees - Downey, Gosling, and Ruffalo, with Willem Dafoe and Dominic Sessa taking the other two slots over Brown and De Niro, although I would have been just as happy to have seen some combination of Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, Jamie Bell, and Charles Melton break into the category over Ruffalo and Dafoe.
I also agree with two of the Best Supporting Actress nominees - Randolph and Foster and go along with Blunt who is overdue for Oscar consideration, but not Brooks or Ferrera; Penélope Cruz and Rosamund Pike get those slots. Claire Foy would be my next in line.
For Best Director, I agree with Lanthimos, Nolan, and Triet, but wanted Alexander Payne and Celine Song more than Scorsese and Glazer and certainly more than Gerwig.
So, overall, I don't have a lot to complain about this year.
Okri wrote
a) I just wish Fox Searchlight was better at campaigning for multiple films. Credit to them for getting Poor Things to 20+ million gross and 11 nominations, but boo-urns that All of Us Strangers couldn't get anything. That said, they had Grand Budapest and Birdman in 2014 (along with Wild), Three Billboards and Shape of Water in 2017, so I'm probably just a little butthurt.
b) Neon also had The Quiet Girl last year and Flee the year before. I will note that Mubi has Fallen Leaves (streaming now for those who are interested) and they missed with Decision to Leave. Interesting how quickly Neon was able to involve itself in the Oscar races.
c) I'm gonna need Gerwig to win an Oscar fairly soon, to be honest. Lady Bird was my favourite of the 2017 best picture nominees and it was one of two films to go home empty handed (The Post was the other). I adored her Little Women, but she missed out on a possible directing nomination and lost screenplay to Jojo frickin' Rabbit (I also find it puzzling that neither Ronan nor Johansson could make a run for best actress). "Objectively" I'm fine with Barbie not being that movie. Outside of Gosling and maybe production design, I wouldn't vote for it.
d) I've 12 fiction features and 6 documentaries to catch up on. 13 if chose to watch the Flamin' Hot as opposed to youtube the song (the song isn't even streaming with the soundtrack!!)
a) It's a shame. I think there's a few factors why All of Us Strangers didn't hit. I think there's something to consider generally about a new era of post-COVID release calendars and the amount of films a viewer will see. I think there was too big a glut of films seeking audiences during December that all went ignored. But I also think maybe a film like All of Us Strangers is always going to be a hard sell on audiences and voters. Andrew Haigh's films are all very internal. My sister saw it and said "it was beautiful but kinda like a book."
b) Yup, Neon is killer. They couldn't make Ferrari happen but they did get Perfect Days and Robot Dreams in. Didn't know Fallen Leaves was on Mubi. I kind of want to see it in theaters though. It looks like a vibe. re: Neon, it doesn't seem like they make a strong play for it every year, but when they do, they do an incredible job.
c) I am not concerned about Greta Gerwig winning an Oscar one day. I think she's the favorite to win this year. She basically has the keys to the industry at this point.
d) 11 narratives left. My best year in ages.
Sabin wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:36 pm
I think we all had the sense after BAFTA that nothing was really cleared up. No kidding! SAG forecast 17 of the eventual 20 acting nominees which is the most overlap between Oscar & SAG since 2016. If we just exclude the extra nominee in each BAFTA category, there's only 13/20 overlap. That's a shift from the previous year where both SAG and BAFTA went 15/20 in the acting categories. Both years saw SAG nominate something in Best Ensemble Cast that was at that point perceived as a loser, then we all thought "Maybe it's not out yet! Maybe the actors love it and it's going onto a Best Picture nomination"... but then it doesn't end up getting a Best Picture nomination (Babylon, The Color Purple).
Mister Tee wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:25 pm
So...a perfect solid slate -- which would have been hard to avoid with such a broadly strong field of candidates. But disappointment around the edges: hackery on display with Diane Warren, John Williams, Annette Bening, America Ferrera. As Magilla notes, you can feel the presence of the old guard in most of the borderline choices. Let's say, an A+ year for film has only yielded a B+ Oscar vintage. Could always have been worse, but one should aspire.
I wonder if we'll ever again see a year where the full ten best picture list was so easy to project. Or, as I said after PGA, a higher-quality roster.
Yeah, I think this is why I'm a little underwhelmed. The PGAs went 10 for 10; the SAG's 17 for 20. The DGA a "paltry" 3 for 5 and the WGAs didn't matter (and given the sheer number of films that weren't eligible for the Writers Guild, it would've been nice to see what got elevated in "their spots").
More broadly, I wonder if its possible for this race to be as "exciting" as I want it to be but still pay as close attention to it as I/we do. It's almost like actively searching for spoilers for a movie than being disappointed the film isn't as exciting as it could be. But then I look at this year and while I don't quite think of it as an A+ year, there were a lot of really strong achievements across the board. So the hive mind that emerges for Giamatti doing the exact thing we know he can do or that Randolph's nice performance can win 32 critics prizes (not an exaggeration)...
But then again, I like a lot of the films nominated. The Holdovers is my least favourite of the seven I've seen (missing American Fiction, Zone of Interest and Maestro) but I'd rate it on par or better than half of last year's line-up (though I also prefer 2021's best picture line-up to 2022, which the top awards and the terrible awards show itself collude to obscure).
Mister Tee wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:25 pm
People talk about Searchlight and A24 as nomination-generating machines, but maybe it's time to think about NEON as Weinstein-level Oscar successes. Parasite is, of course, their masterpiece, but, two years ago, they got seemingly fading films Spencer and Worst Person in the World to big nominations, and, here, they not only maxed out Anatomy of a Fall, they got Perfect Days into the foreign film category over bigger favorites The Taste of Things and Fallen Leaves.
....
My instinct that Gerwig might be too commercial for the directors' branch proved out. I saw a little Twitter angst, but effectively replacing her with Triet helped avoid a tiresome "it's because she's a woman!" argument. The nominations for both Triet and Glazer confirm my feeling that the single greatest result of the voter expansion post-#oscarssowhite was the mass invitation of foreign-language folk to the directors branch.
....
Thanks to the massive domination by a few films -- Oppenheimer 13 nods, Poor Things 11, Killers 10, Barbie 8 (a total reminiscent of 1977's Julia/Turning Point 11, Star Wars 10, Close Encounters 8 ), I'm well on my way to having the tech categories covered -- Napoleon and Mission Impossible accounting for multiples missing. But I'm going to be very busy catching up on animated, foreign language and documentary. (Along with the inevitable shorts scramble.)
a) I just wish Fox Searchlight was better at campaigning for multiple films. Credit to them for getting Poor Things to 20+ million gross and 11 nominations, but boo-urns that All of Us Strangers couldn't get anything. That said, they had Grand Budapest and Birdman in 2014 (along with Wild), Three Billboards and Shape of Water in 2017, so I'm probably just a little butthurt.
b) Neon also had The Quiet Girl last year and Flee the year before. I will note that Mubi has Fallen Leaves (streaming now for those who are interested) and they missed with Decision to Leave. Interesting how quickly Neon was able to involve itself in the Oscar races.
c) I'm gonna need Gerwig to win an Oscar fairly soon, to be honest. Lady Bird was my favourite of the 2017 best picture nominees and it was one of two films to go home empty handed (The Post was the other). I adored her Little Women, but she missed out on a possible directing nomination and lost screenplay to Jojo frickin' Rabbit (I also find it puzzling that neither Ronan nor Johansson could make a run for best actress). "Objectively" I'm fine with Barbie not being that movie. Outside of Gosling and maybe production design, I wouldn't vote for it.
d) I've 12 fiction features and 6 documentaries to catch up on. 13 if chose to watch the Flamin' Hot as opposed to youtube the song (the song isn't even streaming with the soundtrack!!)
I think we all had the sense after BAFTA that nothing was really cleared up. No kidding! SAG forecast 17 of the eventual 20 acting nominees which is the most overlap between Oscar & SAG since 2016. If we just exclude the extra nominee in each BAFTA category, there's only 13/20 overlap. That's a shift from the previous year where both SAG and BAFTA went 15/20 in the acting categories. Both years saw SAG nominate something in Best Ensemble Cast that was at that point perceived as a loser, then we all thought "Maybe it's not out yet! Maybe the actors love it and it's going onto a Best Picture nomination"... but then it doesn't end up getting a Best Picture nomination (Babylon, The Color Purple).
Mister Tee wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:25 pm
So...a perfect solid slate -- which would have been hard to avoid with such a broadly strong field of candidates. But disappointment around the edges: hackery on display with Diane Warren, John Williams, Annette Bening, America Ferrera.
Great lead-in to another great article, but I don't agree that Bening's nomination is part of the hackery. She gave one of the better biopic performances IMO as a grievously unlikeable character. I don't know how much her strike appearances helped her, but I do think she benefitted from some guilt from people who supported Jodie Foster not wanting to leave her out - a lead performance on the coattail of a supporting one if you will. I would rather she took Carey Mulligan's spot than Greta Lee's, but I didn't really expect all my picks to make it. 4 out of 5 in this category is close enough.
Mister Tee wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:25 pm
#Oscarsnotsowhite ought to be out there somewhere today, as multiple not-surefire black performers scored nominations -- Brown, Domingo, even Brooks, considering her film's utter flameout. Along with Lily Gladstone representing Native Americans, and America Ferrera offering Hispanic representation. (Before anyone jumps on me -- I know: Hispanic actors are considered white; you're a jerk if you say otherwise. Things is, they aren't when American population is being discussed: the whole "American is trending less white" demographics are largely result of the burgeoning Hispanic population. I'd say if any group is at this point massively under-represented in Oscar terms relative to their percentage of the populace, it's Hispanics. So, in that respect -- and only that -- congrats to Ferrera.)
Probably not germane to the conversation, but 20-30 years ago (and for all I know, still today), when banks and other national organizations got points for hiring and promoting "minorities", Hispanics counted as a group, as did Blacks, and Vietnam era veterans (of which I was one), but Asians didn't because Asian hires and promotions as a percentage of candidates was supposedly pretty much even with that of whites.
So...a perfectly solid slate -- which would have been hard to avoid with such a broadly strong field of candidates. But disappointment around the edges: hackery on display with Diane Warren, John Williams, Annette Bening, America Ferrera. As Magilla notes, you can feel the presence of the old guard in most of the borderline choices. Let's say, an A+ year for film has only yielded a B+ Oscar vintage. Could always have been worse, but one should aspire.
I wonder if we'll ever again see a year where the full ten best picture list was so easy to project. Or, as I said after PGA, a higher-quality roster.
#Oscarsnotsowhite ought to be out there somewhere today, as multiple not-surefire black performers scored nominations -- Brown, Domingo, even Brooks, considering her film's utter flameout. Along with Lily Gladstone representing Native Americans, and America Ferrera offering Hispanic representation. (Before anyone jumps on me -- I know: Hispanic actors are considered white; you're a jerk if you say otherwise. Things is, they aren't when American population is being discussed: the whole "America is trending less white" demographics are largely result of the burgeoning Hispanic population. I'd say if any group is at this point massively under-represented in Oscar terms relative to their percentage of the populace, it's Hispanics. So, in that respect -- and only that -- congrats to Ferrera.)
After a quiet 2022, the biopic returned with a vengeance this year: fully half the acting nominees are playing real people; multiple films are flat-out bios (Maestro, Oppenheimer), while others (Rustin, Nyad) take the one-key-part-of-the-subject's-life approach. (Netflix will certainly take this to heart: wild critical acclaim for its May December actors yield no nominations, but every biopic possibility came through.)
I heard murmurs a few weeks back that Bening had been a real stalwart during the strikes this summer, and would get gratitude-support for Nyad. I hoped it was untrue, but alas. It's not it's a bad performance; it's that the main alternatives (Robbie and Lee) were so much more central to the year in film as experienced by most. It reminded me a tad of Jack Lemmon in Tribute boxing out Donald Sutherland in Ordinary People.
I was almost tempted to switch my Poor Things supporting actor pick to Dafoe based on a "when a film has two candidates, bet on the older one" principle (Scofield over Turturro in Quiz Show through Hirsch over Dano last year), but Ruffalo -- who at one time seemed so far in front I considered him a potential winner -- carried the day. With all the sturm und drang, the category came out roughly as envisioned, with four sure things, and one wild card, which went to Brown (from a film that got 5 overall nominations) rather than Melton or Sessa. In retrospect, the "don't bet on young adults for supporting nominations" theorem (Shailene Woodley, Andrew Garfield in Social Network) should have been given more weight.
With a wealth of interesting candidates, voters chose pretty much the dullest possible outcome for the supporting actress slate. My formula worked sadly well, not far off the 2015 result that provoked it -- even to the point of reviving Ferrera, after the seemingly mortal SAG blow. Brooks' long-time blogger support was, I'd guess, key in keeping her alive. I could easily create a list of 5 nominees that I'd massively prefer.
I deeply regret Claire Foy not making it, for her performance foremost, but also because it denied a piece of trivia gold: every other adult actor who's played either the Queen or Princess Margaret on The Crown has an Oscar nomination.
People talk about Searchlight and A24 as nomination-generating machines, but maybe it's time to think about NEON as Weinstein-level Oscar successes. Parasite is, of course, their masterpiece, but, two years ago, they got seemingly fading films Spencer and Worst Person in the World to big nominations, and, here, they not only maxed out Anatomy of a Fall, they got Perfect Days into the foreign film category over bigger favorites The Taste of Things and Fallen Leaves.
Killers of the Flower Moon had about as bad a day as a film can in the process of getting 10 nominations. The early-on screenplay miss pretty much extinguished whatever remaining upset hopes the film had. However, amidst all that, let's not forget to salute Scorsese for getting his 10th nomination (putting Wyler's record 12 in sight) and upping his directed-actors total to 26 (against, second to Wyler, though that 36 remains a tall hill to climb).
My instinct that Gerwig might be too commercial for the directors' branch proved out. I saw a little Twitter angst, but effectively replacing her with Triet helped avoid a tiresome "it's because she's a woman!" argument. The nominations for both Triet and Glazer confirm my feeling that the single greatest result of the voter expansion post-#oscarssowhite was the mass invitation of foreign-language folk to the directors branch. The branch has always been more hospitable to the non-American-born (Scorsese is, in fact, the only native American on this year's list), but now we're to the point where multiple non-English films doesn't generate a headline. (I of course regret that Past Lives couldn't have been among them, but, National Society aside, the critics largely boosted these other two above it.)
Something worth noting: the vast majority of this year's race was already screened by mid-summer. Past Lives at Sundance, Anatomy, Killers, and Zone of Interest at Cannes, Barbenheimer in July. Can't recall the last time that's happened.
Thanks to the massive domination by a few films -- Oppenheimer 13 nods, Poor Things 11, Killers 10, Barbie 8 (a total reminiscent of 1977's Julia/Turning Point 11, Star Wars 10, Close Encounters 8 ), I'm well on my way to having the tech categories covered -- Napoleon and Mission Impossible accounting for multiples missing. But I'm going to be very busy catching up on animated, foreign language and documentary. (Along with the inevitable shorts scramble.)
Oh, and, costumes/production design are a 1-for-1 match -- something you'd think would happen more often, but I believe last occurred in 1969!
Last edited by Mister Tee on Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:45 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Sabin wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:35 pm
-Best Visual Effects is a head-scratcher. I'm leaning towards The Creator but I'm not sure if voters will actually watch any of these films.
I'm kind of leaning towards Godzilla Minus One because its success has been a good story, but in the absence of Best Picture nominees, they have often gone with whatever seems closest to a Best Picture nominee (e.g., Tenet, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, Interstellar), so maybe...Napoleon? Weird category.
I have a hard time seeing voters vote for Oppenheimer in a bunch of other categories but pass Murphy over, but there is probably some prejudice talking: I think Giamatti gives the exact performance, down to the line readings, that you would expect in The Holdovers, and don't think he's much better than decent.
Greg wrote
I think Murphy will win as part of a 9-award sweep for Oppenheimer -- Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, and Sound. In addition, I'm guessing Barbie for Original Song, Production Design, and Costume Design; The Holdovers for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress; Poor Things for Lead Actress and Makeup And Hairstyling; Mission Impossible -- Dead Reckoning Part One for Visual Effects; The Zone Of Interest for International Feature; 20 Days in Mariupol for International Feature; and, The Boy and the Heron for Animated Feature. I have absolutely no idea about the shorts.
Good picks. I'm basically on the same page except:
-in a year where I don't see many nail-biters, the big one will be Barbie for which song? I just have a hard time seeing voters pass over "I'm Just Ken," the climax of the film and the on-screen performed and sung song.
-I think Giamatti will win the SAG and Murphy will win the BAFTA. Ultimately, I think Giamatti will take it.
-Maestro will take Makeup and Hairstyling. Remarkable achievement.
-I think you meant to say 20 Days in Mariupol for Doc Feature. I agree.
-Not sure about Best Animated Film. I'd feel more bullish about Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse if it picked up any additional nominations. I guess it's The Boy and the Heron (still need to see it) but I won't rule out Elemental. They've got for below-standards PIXAR before (Brave) and it's a fine babysitter.
-I think missing out on Best Director will help Gerwig win Best Adapted Screenplay.
-Best Visual Effects is a head-scratcher. I'm leaning towards The Creator but I'm not sure if voters will actually watch any of these films.
Sonic Youth wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:58 pm
I've accepted that Cillian Murphy (who absolutely deserved his nom) will be passed over in favor of Giamatti.
I think Murphy will win as part of a 9-award sweep for Oppenheimer -- Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, and Sound. In addition, I'm guessing Barbie for Original Song, Production Design, and Costume Design; The Holdovers for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress; Poor Things for Lead Actress and Makeup And Hairstyling; Mission Impossible -- Dead Reckoning Part One for Visual Effects; The Zone Of Interest for International Feature; 20 Days in Mariupol for International Feature; and, The Boy and the Heron for Animated Feature. I have absolutely no idea about the shorts.
Big Magilla wrote
Blunt and Ferrera, yes, but how on Earth are Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Danielle Brooks' nominations coattail? Randolf is the heart and soul of her film. If anything, all its other nominations fall on her coattail! Brooks is the only nominee from her film, the coat failed to make it!
There was a whole post about it. Maybe coattails is the wrong world. Those performers were featured in Best Picture contending films. Whether Brooks can be considered in a Best Picture contending film is another story. I would say considering its SAG Ensemble nomination, it was.
Sonic Youth wrote
I'm more irked that my MVP in Barbie - Kate McKinnon, who may be one of the best comic performers of the past 10 years - didn't get 1/100th of the attention Ferrarra's received.
Weird Barbie will live on in the lexicon.
At least Barbie sold Kate McKinnon's capacity as an ensemble player in an artistically/financially successful movie. Her filmography is far from distinguished at this point (save for Bombshell where she managed to convince as a human being). Hopefully, it helps her get better projects and she avoids the pitfalls faced by long-term
SNL performers.
Okri wrote
C. Speaking of Brooks, that she was able to make it while her movie flamed out (no craft nominations at all) speaks to what... inertia? Broadway acclaim giving her enough?
Shout out to Mister Tee whose formula was actually more instructive than we thought. Tier 1 (coattail nominations for Best Picture contenders) brought in Emily Blunt, America Ferrera, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, and Danielle Brooks. After that, Tier 2: who is paired with a leading actor contender? Margot Robbie didn't make the cut but America Ferrera did. She has the top two Tiers going for her. We should've seen it coming. It may not be a great performance but she had the big speech and people like it. Beyond that, Annette Bening made it in (I guess SAG's Netflix love wasn't a mirage) and so did Jodie Foster. Barry Keoghan and Andrew Scott (sad) didn't so neither did Rosamund Pike or Claire Foy. There are plenty of previous nominees or winners to choose from like Cruz, Pike, and Moore but the slots were already full by that point.
Danielle Brooks is actually the biggest surprise to me. Her film did flame out but I guess it counts as Best Picture-contending considering its SAG nomination. And because she had Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nomination, she was a lock. I hedged and went with Cruz & Pike.
Blunt and Ferrera, yes, but how on Earth are Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Danielle Brooks' nominations coattail? Randolf is the heart and soul of her film. If anything, all its other nominations fall on her coattail! Brooks is the only nominee from her film, the coat failed to make it!
