DGA Nominees & Winner

[Bog]

Not the reason they'll nominate her, but can you imagine the furor if Gerwig were the director wiped out by yet another white male director?

Yeah OG.....this

Not just furor but (Ken) art imitating life to boot (from her very film)....and this one idea has me backtracking my entire thought process.

Actually you may have nailed something I overlooked, in my attempt to create a discrepancy where there may not need be one...and that is feeling like I could skip RIGHT past Yorgos due to the massive showing for The Favourite in the recent past...

The Academy directors' branch very well may feel the "spot" they seem to have somewhat created for "lone director" is adequately fulfilled by his near certain inclusion....again the glut is just so large this season, it would ONLY make sense this be the year they DON'T have such a spot nominated

[OscarGuy]

I think everyone is underestimating Barbie. Greta Gerwig not only made the box office hit of the year, but she did so without compromising her vision, following a formula, or otherwise succumbing to the traditional forces that homogenize big budget blockbusters. There will be a lot of respect for that without the Directors Branch, most of whom would like to have had the freedom she did and appreciate what she's done to redefine what can work at the box office and hopefully encourage studios to be less risk averse.

While I've learned never to count out Payne, he's the only one on the list whose candidacy seemed less than certain. I'd imagine he's a cusp candidate, but could very well be one of the five. Lanthimos' film is far more in line with the lone-director slot than Glazer, Triet, or Song. It probably has a lot in common with Ostlund's piece except it's more acclaimed.

Not the reason they'll nominate her, but can you imagine the furor if Gerwig were the director wiped out by yet another white male director?

[mlrg]

I do understand that the foreign members have a significant impact in the directors branch and I predicted Pawlikowski, Ostlund, Vinterberg and Yamaguchi in my last predictions before the announcement.

These five seem very likely to replicate. If any of them are to be left out I think it’s Payne, who could be replaced by Glazer.

Cooper now seems a long shot for the nomination for what is his most “directed” film.

[Sabin]

Bog wrote
I love Greta Gerwig and think what she did WAS largely worthy of this extensive praise and near takeover of the cinematic world for months...but damn if she doesn't have a SERIOUS Cooper/Villanueve/Sorkin/Kosinski feel if anyone ever has in this spot

I think you absolutely have a good point here. And it's not as thought Gerwig wasn't ignored by this branch before. I think Gerwig's auteur imprimatur is unlikely for the branch to ignore but it has something that a lot of this branch's "snubs" have in common: Barbie is a movie with more than a few unpolished moments. There are so many things that are inspired about Barbie but it's still very much a studio comedy and those tend to do poorly at the Oscars. On the other hand, The Holdovers is directorily more the kind of comedy they honor.

[Bog]

And typing a response WHILE at work is complete dumbassery...as of course, by the time I submit Sabin and Tee have crushed me...sorry for being slow but honestly NOT copying your wisdom

[Bog]

I think this will go five for five at the oscars

Mark me down in the camp of someone here getting Glazer-ed or Triet-ed on Oscar nom morning ...and with just HOW strong this year was for director hopefuls (especially in the of late en vogue "one off" foreign film type Academy nomination realm) it's really hard to fathom NOT seeing a Triet or Glazer type nomination...same could go for Song too! I also think both films are nearly locks for Best Picture noms, no? Actually, and I should've researched this more fully before typing my impetuous thoughts, a slate of 10 WITHOUT any of these 3 puts us into Color Purple land so yeah ....one would think haha

On the heels of recent consecutive years featuring the Vinterburg/Pawlikowski/Yamaguchi triple and the way the noms are done in this 10+ picture format, I'd argue Glazer especially should almost feel confident in a weird way. Yes yes I'm aware Drive My Car got a picture nomination, but it was never seriously in contention for a win and I think Glazer has been discussed in recent past as a potential WINNER of the Oscar for this season...in semi-earnest fashion at least.

I love Greta Gerwig and think what she did WAS largely worthy of this extensive praise and near takeover of the cinematic world for months...but damn if she doesn't have a SERIOUS Cooper/Villanueve/Sorkin/Kosinski feel if anyone ever has in this spot.

[Big Magilla]

I would give Celine Song Greta Gerwig's slot at the Oscars, but I doubt AMPAS will. More likely, they'll give her Payne's slot if they decide to go their own route.

[Mister Tee]

I think this will go five for five at the oscars

Not impossible, but I'd bet strongly against it. Since the invitation to so many foreign-language directors (oddly, the most lasting result of #Oscarssowhite), there's not been a year without a non-American film in the directing category (Triangle of Sadness was in English, but its sensibility was European all the way). I'd guess at least one of Glazer/Song/Triet pop in to change this list.

[Sabin]

Since 2018, every time the director's branch broke with the DGA, it was a BAFTA nominee for Best Director. Except for Ruben Ostlund. Still a pretty international pick in his own right. Lanthimos, Pawkilowki, Philips, Vinterberg, and Hamaguchi were all BAFTA noms.

Something to look out for over the next couple of weeks. If BAFTA nominates Jonathan Glazer, Justine Triet, or Celine Song, that could be the upset.

[mlrg]

I think this will go five for five at the oscars

[Mister Tee]

No news is no news.

[Sabin]

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Theatrical Feature Film
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Manuel Martinelli, Chile '76
Noora Niasari, Shayda
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives