Golden Globe Nominations

[Big Magilla]

My predictions are heavily based on the new membership influencing the outcome in most, if not all, categories.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
Both Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon have lots of supporters, but Oppenheimer is more universally appreciated and should win here.

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL
A win for Barbie would mean that the Globes haven't changed so I don't think they'll let that happen. The Holdovers and Poor Things are both heavily supported by the critics, so either one could win but The Holdovers would be the more likely choice of the old membership combined with enough support from the new guard to pull out the win.

BEST PICTURE, ANIMATED
Spider-Man: Across the Universe is the more popular with the public, but here I think they'll side with the critics and go with Mayazaki's heralded return.

BEST DIRECTOR
This should go easily to Nolan who has never won over three-time winner Scorsese.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Cooper aside, Murphy is the presumptive winner here, but I anticipate an upset win for his fellow Irishman, Scott.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Giamatti should win this one easily. Wright is the only other nominee who seemingly has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Here I think international support for Hüller will prevail over Gladstone, but it will be close.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Look for Emma Stone to take home her second Golden Globe in a close race with Robbie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I see this one as a race between Downey and Ruffalo. Downey has two Globes, one for film and one for TV work, Ruffalo has one for TV work. I think Downey will pick up his third.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Randolph is such an overwhelming favorite here that you can throw in any of the other nominees you want for runner-up. In the unlikely event of an upset, I would pick Rosamund Pike.

BEST SCREENPLAY
I think Oppenheimer will prevail here, but Past Lives would be a nice surprise.

BEST SONG
I think they'll go with Lenny Kravitz' anthem from Rustin, but they could go for one of the Barbie songs, more likely I'm Just Ken whichi s the most fun.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
A posthumous award for Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon would be a good place for them to throw a bone to the Scorsese film.

BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
A tough one to call, but I think Past Lives will prevail here over both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, either of which could easily win as well.

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
They have to give Barbie something so this should be it.

[Mister Tee]

As we all know, I’m not satisfied to simply plunk down a bare set of predictions without explanation. Rather than clutter up the contest thread, I thought I’d register my thoughts here. (Why so late? Because the not-COVID-but-plenty-bad thing I’ve had since Christmas has only finally lifted enough that my head feels clear enough to expound.)

Two things about the Globes we should think about, going in:

1) They haven’t been spectacularly predictive, of late. Up through 2019, they were pretty good about narrowing the field (give or take the odd Aaron Taylor-Johnson). Hell, in 2018, they reset the table: we came in thinking A Star is Born was going to rake, and left with Bohemian Rhapsody/Green Book as our sad template (they also set off the Glenn Close mirage, but put that aside). The next year, they locked in four winners who swept the TV round and romped to Oscars.

But in 2020, they went bust. They did foretell the Nomadland best picture run, but three of four acting Oscar winners went home losers from the HFPA. The Boseman/Hopkins thing fooled everybody, but Andra Day and Jodie Foster? –- that was all on them. You could say, okay, that was the COVID year: things were out of whack everywhere. Problem is, they were almost as whack in 2021. They got Will Smith (big surprise) and Arianna DeBose (fairly easy pick). But they also followed the critics with Power of the Dog best film/Kodi Smit-McPhee, and started the bogus Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos bandwagon. Last year, if you’ve forgotten, they missed Brendan Fraser and Jamie Lee Curtis; couldn’t miss on best actress, because Blanchett/Yeoh won separate categories; and gave their film/director/screenplay prizes to The Fabelmans and Banshees of Inisherin, which won a grand total of zero Oscars between them.

As if that weren’t enough to give us pause…

2) The organization doubled its membership prior to last year, and raised it another 50% this year. Meaning its old roster -– and our long-cultivated take on them –- could be overwhelmed by the new blood. There are reports they went out of their way to recruit legit folk, and this year’s results –- especially the major foreign presence –- suggest they might have succeeded in that regard.

All of which is to say, the results might not be in line with what we’ve come to expect from the old star-fucking group…and they may not mean as much to the upcoming SAG/Broadcaster/BAFTA rounds as they have in the past.

All that said, my thoughts on the imminent ceremony.

If Oppenheimer/Nolan don’t win film-drama/director, we’ll know the organization has truly changed, because this is as down-the-middle a choice as they’ve had in my memory.

Under film-comedy, Poor Things amassed a better nomination haul than The Holdovers (the latter failing at both director and screenplay was a signal this group may truly be different). I suspect Lanthimos’ European oddball sensibility will just suit voters better.

Actor-drama seems to me the most fraught category of the evening. I listened to a few GoldDerby pundits on YouTube and they, despite the poor showing at critics’ groups, still think Bradley Cooper will run away with the TV round. Nothing to date suggests they’re correct -– Cillian Murphy seems better positioned for this category, here. But two things: 1) Gary Oldman looked as dead in the water prior to the Globes in 2017, then made it a runaway at the TV stage, as pundits had predicted. Cooper could do the same. 2) Some voters may remember that they shattered Cooper’s dreams 5 years ago, and be reluctant to do it to him again. I went with Cooper mainly hoping not to see that happen. But I could honestly imagine either him or Murphy winning (and the Broadcasters quickly rubber-stamping whoever triumphs).

Lily Gladstone should win actress-drama –- Mulligan, supposed competitor, just hasn’t revved it up enough –- unless the new international voters come out for Sandra Huller. (Even the old group gave us Isabelle Huppert back in 2016.) Worth hanging around for.

Even though The Holdovers didn’t do that well overall, Paul Giamatti should win -– his closest competitor, Jeffrey Wright, saw his film do even worse.

The old-time HFPA might have boosted Margot Robbie in comedy-actress, but I’m fairly confident the new generation will be solid for Emma Stone.

The most hive-minded of the regional critics groups have fallen in for Robert Downey Jr. in supporting, and he may well take the Oscar. But I think Ryan Gosling has a real shot at mounting a campaign, and this would be a spot to start it. One of the categories in which I’ll be most interested.

Those YouTubers pushing Bradley Cooper were also, at least 2 weeks ago, clinging to “Danielle Brooks will sweep,” but I imagine even they may have given up the ghost by now. The Color Purple is a sinking ship, while Da’Vine Joy Randolph just can’t seem to lose anywhere. A slam dunk.

Screenplay is a very interesting category. I’ve never honestly been able to grasp patterns even from the old HFPA, and, since I’m no longer sure who they are, I’m just picking my favorite…which, as we all know, is Past Lives. But it could be any of the nominees.

I’m also going with Past Lives for foreign-language film (even though the National Society doesn’t seem to think it is one). But Zone or Anatomy could clearly win, as well.

One place I’m truly counting on the international-ness of the group coming to bear is in animated. I think they’d like to take this opportunity to salute Miyazaki one last time.

Score could go anywhere, but Oppenheimer seems a default choice. Unless there’s an impetus to give a send-off to Robbie Robertson.

I see a number of you have picked “I’m Just Ken” of the Barbie songs. This may be a blind spot on my part, but I thought “What Was I Made For?” was the obvious choice the moment I heard it in the film, and Eilish’s singing it on the pre-Christmas SNL only confirmed my judgment. The Globes, of course, have been known to differ from AMPAS on occasion in this category.

By rights, the Cinematic/Box Office Achievement thing should go to Barbenheimer as a unit (and then be retired). I picked Barbie, but what do I know?

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I agree with you on the bet-the-rent categories [Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay], but I can easily envision a plate that includes, actress, director, editing and song.

Okay, we'll see. A couple of months ago, I wasn't that certain about Past Lives' chances. Today, it's hard to see it overperform The Holdovers and not think "Okay, this thing is in." The only thing that concerns me is the number of categories where it can show up but A24 has money and they've been actively campaigning through the strike so it's probably time to get bullish on its chances overall.

That said, I probably would be more bullish had I fallen in love with the film like so many others have. I only like it quite a bit.

[Big Magilla]

I watched three of those YouTube videos of "critics" reacting live to the nominations. All three, including the twins, were over the moon about the foreign language nominees, especially those for Past Lives which remains my favorite of the nominees I have seen, followed by Oppenheimer and The Holdovers.

They all rolled their eyes at the box-office nominees, although they all seemed happy about the John Wick inclusion. They all went "who?" at the mention of the Fallen Leaves actress' name but thought it was a good one, and they all went "huh" at the name of the first Besst Song nominee which turns out to be a Bruce Springsteen song from a barely released Rebecca Miller film about tugboats starring Peter Dinklage, Anne Hathaway, and Marisa Tomei.

I had those same reactions except for the inclusion of John Wick which I haven't seen.

Aside from the box-office nominees, I thought this was the strongest list of Golden Globes nominees ever. The EW and other "fan" lists of "snubs" are mostly ridiculous. I'm even happy for all the Killers of the Flower Moon nominations even if I do feel that it, like most if not all of Scorsese's films, is better in its intentions than in its execution.

[anonymous1980]

I agree Song's newbie status is something of a handicap (though... ahem... Greta Gerwig got nominated for, basically, her first film).

To be fair, Greta Gerwig has been well-known as both an actress and a writer by the time she made Lady Bird. Most people have not heard of Celine Song before Past Lives.

Oh, let me interject my delayed reaction to the Golden Globe nominees: Besides the inclusion of that ridiculous Box-Office category and the nominations of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, I have to say this is very strong and classy group of nominees for the Golden Globes.

[Mister Tee]

Let me tell you where I have it right now and you can tell me where I'm getting it wrong.
-Best Picture and Original Screenplay seem like sure bets at this point.

We start off in full agreement.

-Best Director is possible. I don't think the fact that it's her first film is going to help her. I think Lanthimos, Nolan, and Scorsese are probably locked-in, Gerwig a little less-so. Then I roughly see Glazer, Payne, Song, and who knows who else duking it out for the last spot.

As to the first 3, I'm 95% with you. The fleeting 5% is a nagging feeling that Killers of the Flower Moon could hit an unforeseen wall of resistance. You and most others here have never known a time when Scorsese failed at an expected directing nomination; I, on the other hand, remember 1976 and 1993. This is probably paranoia, but I worry that subterranean dislike for the film could pop up.

I think Gerwig is WAY less than locked in. In fact, if not for her personal celebrity, I'd think of Barbie as exactly the sort of movie that gets a best picture nomination but routinely misses under director. (And I'll continue to think this even when she gets her DGA nomination.) I'm not sure I wouldn't place Glazer ahead of her.

I agree Song's newbie status is something of a handicap (though... ahem... Greta Gerwig got nominated for, basically, her first film). Otherwise, though, her profile is very much the sort that gets directing nominations: director of a sleeper foreign-language hit that critics adore, with the added plus of being both a woman and a minority. In any but a crowded year like this, she'd be a gimme.

I'd doubted Payne in directing even before today. Granted, he's surprised us on nomination days, but I think he'll be on the outs this year. Triet seems more a threat, since she occupies some of the same space as Song. No one else feels that strong to me.

So, where I end up is, she's not a certain nominee, but I rate her more likely than not.

-Best Actress is possible but I see Gladstone, Huller, Mulligan, and Stone locked in for Actress and Greta Lee is duking it out for the final slot against Annette Bening, Natalie Portman, and Margot Robbie. That's tough.

Though I love her performance, I can't say I view Huller as quite locked in. I can certainly see her being nominated, and would applaud it...but I don't put her in the same tier as the other three.

I'd be VERY surprised if Bening were able to crack the line-up; the film just hasn't built much of a following. Portman has the traditional handicap of Todd Haynes v. AMPAS, plus I think she runs third among May December actors in nomination likelihood. Unless the film unexpectedly explodes for citations (again, how likely for a Haynes film?), I rate her a deep long shot.

For a while I was keeping my eye on Barrino, but, with today suggesting The Color Purple isn't cutting it, I'm starting to think she's out of it.

Margot Robbie seems the clearest competitor for Lee, and I have truly no idea how to handicap her chances. Heading a blockbuster with good reviews should be a ticket to success, but the role is so unusual -- shallow by design -- that I think it could go one way or another.

Again: not a certain slot for Lee, but I'm more sanguine about her chances than you are.

-Best Supporting Actor doesn't seem likely. John Magaro has shown up nowhere, not even for a Gotham or a Spirit. I think Charles Melton has taken his spotlight.

Sadly correct. Just too crowded a year. He'd have had a fine shot last year or the year before.

--Beyond that, it's a small film and it's an uphill battle for tech categories. Grizzly Bear did the score and song. They're outside the branch but the branch is more open. The cinematographer shot Small Axe so he's on the verge but it's up against more robust competition. It might have a good shot at Best Film Editing despite its size. It's very well-paced.

Forget cinematography, but editing or song are possibilities. Barbie can only get two songs nominated, Diane Warren only gets one slot, and there can be a tendency for the branch to surprise us with nominees from best picture contenders -- the last few years Judas & the Black Messiah, Belfast, and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

From these, I would say Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay for sure, Best Film Editing and Best Director are maybes.

I agree with you on the bet-the-rent categories, but I can easily envision a plate that includes, actress, director, editing and song.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Are you guys just determined to underestimate Past Lives all the way to nominations day? I'm not doing an end-zone celebration or anything -- I've been burnt too many times -- but it seems to me the film is getting everything it needs to heavily compete in the top Oscar categories. Yet, people keep finding excuses to brush off its chances. It's a film beloved by critics and (in foreign-language terms) audiences. How is that not a sweet spot for AMPAS?

I don't think I'm underestimating Past Lives. At least not anymore.

Let me tell you where I have it right now and you can tell me where I'm getting it wrong.
-Best Picture and Original Screenplay seem like sure bets at this point.
-Best Director is possible. I don't think the fact that it's her first film is going to help her. I think Lanthimos, Nolan, and Scorsese are probably locked-in, Gerwig a little less-so. Then I roughly see Glazer, Payne, Song, and who knows who else duking it out for the last spot.
-Best Actress is possible but I see Gladstone, Huller, Mulligan, and Stone locked in for Actress and Greta Lee is duking it out for the final slot against Annette Bening, Natalie Portman, and Margot Robbie. That's tough.
-Best Supporting Actor doesn't seem likely. John Magaro has shown up nowhere, not even for a Gotham or a Spirit. I think Charles Melton has taken his spotlight.
-Beyond that, it's a small film and it's an uphill battle for tech categories. Grizzly Bear did the score and song. They're outside the branch but the branch is more open. The cinematographer shot Small Axe so he's on the verge but it's up against more robust competition. It might have a good shot at Best Film Editing despite its size. It's very well-paced.

From these, I would say Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay for sure, Best Film Editing and Best Director are maybes.

Mister Tee wrote
The Color Purple omission is the most impactful one, but, further down, shouldn't we be surprised the Ninja Turtles aren't there? They really liked the Super Mario Brothers more?

I'm not surprised but this is a heartbreaker. Mutant Mayhem is such a better film it's not even funny. I chalk it up to strong but not overwhelming box office.

[Mister Tee]

Two add-on thoughts:

Everything I'm hearing about The Iron Claw is positive. I just think it picked the wrong year for a last-minute swoop-in. Last year or the year before, it might have come as tonic after one disappointing film after another. This year, it has to try and crash a formidable roster, and, so far, it's not being successful at it.

The Color Purple omission is the most impactful one, but, further down, shouldn't we be surprised the Ninja Turtles aren't there? They really liked the Super Mario Brothers more?

[Mister Tee]

d) Song over Glazer/Triet is a big deal, in my mind.

Yes, but I think that's beneficiary of a field of six. Would she have gotten in over Cooper? I don't know. But any visibility is a good thing. By that token, Anatomy of a Fall getting in over American Fiction, The Holdovers, and May December is also a very big deal.

Pretty much and agreed. I don't think Song would've been there over Cooper simply because the Globes do have a degree of star-fuckery in their nominations (Ridley Scott for All the Money in the World, anyone?).

Are you guys just determined to underestimate Past Lives all the way to nominations day? I'm not doing an end-zone celebration or anything -- I've been burnt too many times -- but it seems to me the film is getting everything it needs to heavily compete in the top Oscar categories. Yet, people keep finding excuses to brush off its chances. It's a film beloved by critics and (in foreign-language terms) audiences. How is that not a sweet spot for AMPAS?

To the field in general:

The HFPA about doubled its membership a year ago, then increased it another 50% recently, so we're dealing with a vastly new universe of voters. This may account for some differences around the edges -- making room for multiple non-English-language films in drama, less citing of middlebrow films like The Holdovers in directing/writing, the odd off-the-wall citation like the Fallen Leaves actress (though, if you look back at comedy/musical nominees in the past, you might find a few comparable selections when the field was thin). On the other hand, they'll still tend down-the-middle in most categories, and throw in a celebrity director like Cooper, so it's not like it's overnight change.

The perceived heavyweights -- Oppenheimer, Killers, Barbie, Poor Things -- got pretty much everything expected. There've been murmurs that Blunt just wasn't connecting, or that DiCaprio/DeNiro were in jeopardy, and those things might still bear out in the Oscar nominations...but, for today, they're all present and accounted for.

The big miss is clearly The Color Purple, for the reasons okri cites: this group has always been the easiest lay on the planet for any old musical, so leaving it out sets off a loud alarm (especially coupled with the AFI/NBR misses). As Sabin notes, the movie has been shielded from legit critics, which makes one inherently suspicious. The only real reason it's on most prediction lists is because it's because it's been on the let's-imagine lists all year long, and such clung-to predictions die hard. It may well turn up on the Broadcasters list -- they, after all, kept such "pre-buzz/dogs-on-sight" efforts as The Shipping News and Nine alive. And it may well be a box office success; there's a year-end audience that's more attuned to musicals these days than there had been for decades. But that doesn't necessarily translate to it being any more Oscar successful than, say, Into the Woods (which DID get a Globe nomination).

Pretty hilarious how "Cinematic and Box Office Achievement" doesn't even pretend by including the word "best" in its title.

Because of the 6-wide slates, and the relatively equal distribution of films between drama and comedy/musical, pretty much every credible candidate for best picture/actor/actress showed up this morning. I presume the Broadcasters will also hedge some, with 6-, 7- or more wide rosters. It'll be up to SAG to do the first real gutsy winnowing.

Supporting actor sticks with the pre-December consensus, tossing in critics' fave Melton in 6th place. It's possible Sessa will crack this group somehow at the Oscars -- and, no, I don't know which of the presumed candidates would drop out to accommodate him.

Supporting actress is at once the least interesting category as to outcome -- I think Randolph is now on a glide path -- and the most interesting for the number of potential candidates for nomination. This group could absolutely repeat: Foster and Pike, despite weakish vehicles, are deserving -- though it's worth remembering both these ladies won here 3 years ago for movies no one otherwise cared about; Julianne Moore's film could weird out some voters (and, by the way: May/December is no more a comedy than The Bear); Blunt still seems to me borderline, mostly carried aloft by the strength of her film. To my way of thinking, Claire Foy, Rachel McAdams, Viola Davis, America Ferrera or Penelope Cruz could all swoop in and grab a spot (though this would have been a place you'd expect the final three to first make an appearance).

The Holdovers missing both director and screenplay seems ominous -- Payne has been thrice nominated for directing here -- but it may be the newbie voters are less on his wavelength, and AMPAS will come back stronger for him.

American Fiction missing screenplay also seems bad, but the Globes have shown an aversion to black-centered movies in the past.

On the other hand, their no-women-here stance of recent years is upended by two female directors. This is Gerwig's first citation from them -- for, predictably, the least-deserving of her career. (Less a knock on Barbie than an expression of enthusiasm for her previous two efforts.)

So...I guess a song from Barbie is probably going to win?

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Don't get your hopes up for May December. Remember how well Carol did with critics and the Globes and then witness how it got left out of Best Picture.

This is a great point. I was going to say that May December seems to be performing better than Carol but it isn't. It's not doing any better at this point in the race. I think it's simply over-performing beyond existing expectations.

OscarGuy wrote
Also, you guys are way too catty about The Color Purple, a film none of you have seen. You seem to be hoping for its failure just to prove yourselves right.

FWIW, I have actually seen it. I don't know that it will be much of a contender in general, but Brooks is probably going to get a nomination as costume design and possibly production design. I think it could still get into Best Picture because of the dearth of films exploring the Black experience. Other than American Fiction and maybe Air, what else is there? So, it could very well end up in the Best Picture slate even if it's not among the year's best.

And even if it isn't a major Oscar player, it could well be a box office smash. It's good enough for that even if it's not good enough to get awards.

Just speaking for myself, I said below that it wasn't dead but certainly not doing as well as anyone would have hoped. This is a film with high expectations that should be playing to groups like HFPA and the National Board of Review voters. It's not but nobody can deny this is a disappointment-- the kind of disappointment that we were alerted to when it ducked the festivals. That's not a sign of high confidence on an awards-baiting Christmas release with a $100m budget. It's best case scenario is that it's a smash. But rule of thumb: if a movie ducks the festivals, it's for a reason.

As for your previous point about the number of films exploring the black experience, voters don't feel it incumbent upon them to meet a specific quota every year. In 2020, they had their choice of Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami but in the end just went with one of them (Judas...). In 2021, they just went with King Richard. Last year, they didn't go with any. This year, they have American Fiction in the running. They also have Air (I suppose) and to some degree The Holdovers in Da'Vine Joy Randolph's part. That might be enough for them in a year where they're also supporting films about indigenous experiences (Killers of the Flower Moon), Asian experiences (Past Lives), etc.

[Okri]

Okri wrote
a) Yeah, The Color Purple is dead. I think I was the most positive on its chances on the board, but if the organization that nominated Nine, The Greatest Showman, Into the Woods and many others couldn't find it a spot with six spots available... sheesh.

I don't think it's dead for one reason: they have to go to ten. And these are industry awards. How many times did we say Women Talking is dead last year? A lot. If Best Picture didn't have to go to ten, I'd say it was out but it does have to go to ten and these are industry awards. If The Color Purple gets in for PGA and SAG, then we'll all be saying it's back.

But it's not looking good.

Honestly, I viewed the four groups (GG, BFCA, PGA and SAG) as the bare minimum for The Colour Purple to make the best picture line-up, along with a healthy gross. That said, Hidden Figures is perhaps a good precedent for The Colour Purple making it in on PGA/SAG and gross alone. But I also feel that the musical won't be as well received as the 2016 film. I also think that 2023 is a more competitive year than 2016 was.

Okri wrote
d) Song over Glazer/Triet is a big deal, in my mind.

Yes, but I think that's beneficiary of a field of six. Would she have gotten in over Cooper? I don't know. But any visibility is a good thing. By that token, Anatomy of a Fall getting in over American Fiction, The Holdovers, and May December is also a very big deal.

Pretty much and agreed. I don't think Song would've been there over Cooper simply because the Globes do have a degree of star-fuckery in their nominations (Ridley Scott for All the Money in the World, anyone?).

Also, we know no one cares, but for the box office category, they didn't nominate 6th (Little Mermaid), 7th (Ant-man), 9th (Sound of Freedom) or 11th biggest hits (Indiana Jones). Apropos of nothing.

Also, given Triet's comments after missing the foreign language submission, she must be feeling pretty smug right now.

I also don't remember 2 of the 3 Barbie songs.

Super Mario Bros for the animated slot is a bleak possibility.

[OscarGuy]

Don't get your hopes up for May December. Remember how well Carol did with critics and the Globes and then witness how it got left out of Best Picture.

Also, you guys are way too catty about The Color Purple, a film none of you have seen. You seem to be hoping for its failure just to prove yourselves right.

FWIW, I have actually seen it. I don't know that it will be much of a contender in general, but Brooks is probably going to get a nomination as costume design and possibly production design. I think it could still get into Best Picture because of the dearth of films exploring the Black experience. Other than American Fiction and maybe Air, what else is there? So, it could very well end up in the Best Picture slate even if it's not among the year's best.

And even if it isn't a major Oscar player, it could well be a box office smash. It's good enough for that even if it's not good enough to get awards.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
This is a pretty respectable list for the Golden Globes. There is no way that the old-fangled GGs would have nominated Alma Pöysti, for example. She would have been replaced by the equivalent of Sandra Bullock in Miss Congeniality.

It's the most respectable lineup in ages. They have three Non-English Language Films competing with Best Drama instead of Ferrari, Napoleon, or who knows what else?

[Sabin]

mlrg wrote
Sabin’s obsession with The Iron Claw is almost on the same level of Magilla’s Tea With Mussolini

Lol no way I haven't even seen it. A film critic buddy of mine saw it and thought it could go over well with voters. I also think it'll be odd if nothing unseen before December got into the race. I don't think The Iron Claw is out per se but it's off my prediction list. I think we should be more bullish on May December.

[mlrg]

Sabin’s obsession with The Iron Claw is almost on the same level of Magilla’s Tea With Mussolini