NYCC Predix

[Big Magilla]

The current membership of the NYFCC is comprised of 44 members including 11 freelancers. Aside from Owen Gleiberman, Ed Gonzalez, Rex Reed, Kyle Smith, and Peter Travers, I am not familiar with any of them including the current reviewers for publications that gave all those glowing 100 Metacritic ratings to First Cow, so I'm not so sure that they will give their Best Picture prize to one of the three that Tee is predicting.

I don't know if you remember; but, Ed Gonzalez used to post at this site and at Zach Campbell's old message board under the name Apostle.

I had lunch with Ed, Damien, and Jaime Christley on one of my visits to New York in the early 2000s.

[Mister Tee]

Mister Tee wrote
Actress

Contrarily, actress strikes me as overstuffed with NY-style winners (not even considering the possibility of a Regina Hall/Lupita Nyong’o long shot)…to the point, even with two alternates, I can’t feel confident I’ve included all potential winners.

Emma Stone’s “performance of her life” reviews would, you’d think, make her a sure-bet for the prize (as similar notices did for Blanchett last year). But how do you ignore the breakout year Sandra Huller has had? Her Anatomy of a Fall work strikes me as a quite credible critics’ winner. And, then, what do you do with Lily Gladstone, the heart and soul of Killers of the Flower Moon? Beyond that, where do you put Carey Mulligan, who, too, has received “best work of her career” reviews?

I’ve listed them below in my best-guess order, but keep in mind that any of them -– including the squeezed-out Mulligan –- wouldn’t surprise me in the least as the choice.

Winner: Emma Stone
Runners-up: Sandra Huller, Lily Gladstone

I've been thinking about Margot Robbie as a kinda outside-the-box winner like Regina Hall or Lupita Nyong'o (although I was a fan of both). This is the group that gave it to Cameron Diaz for There's Something About Mary.

I may be putting too much stock in the fact that NY went for the obvious consensus choice last year in Blanchett, and ignoring the fact that, for much of the past decade, they've been more inclined toward the out-of-the-box choice: Weisz, Hall, Nyong'o, Flanigan (not disparaging any of those performances; just noting none were really in the Oscar conversation, nor did any, in the end, get there). In which case, who the hell knows who'll win the category?

The weird thing is, this group hasn't shown remotely the same tendency under best actor -- Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner was the only true such choice (Oscar misses like Redford '13, Hawke '18 or Lindo '20 were at least considered, despite missing in the end, and, though Keaton's lead placement was a stretch, he wasn't as off-the-beam a choice as Weisz or Hall).

[anonymous1980]

Let me join the fray:

BEST FILM: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ACTOR: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Charles Melton, May December
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
BEST SCREENPLAY: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
BEST ANIMATED FILM: The Boy and the Heron
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie
BEST NON-FICTION FILM: My Body
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: The Zone of Interest
BEST FIRST FILM: Past Lives, Celine Song.

[Big Magilla]

I had to look them up, but yes, Eric, I am familiar with most of those names and their output now that you point them out. Farren Nehme AKA The Self-Styled Siren, however, I'm pretty sure is the only freelancer I've heard of.

Not sure how many of the 44 were around even last year. A significant change in membership could skewer votes in a different direction than they went even then, which was the point I was trying to make. We'll soon find out.

[Eric]

Aside from Owen Gleiberman, Ed Gonzalez, Rex Reed, Kyle Smith, and Peter Travers, I am not familiar with any of them

So ... not Richard Brody, not Michael Atkinson, not Amy Taubin, not Stephanie Zacharek, not Bilge Ebiri, not Farran Nehme, not K. Austin Collins, not Melissa Anderson, not Dana Stevens then? Not a single one of those names is even passingly familiar?

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Actress

Contrarily, actress strikes me as overstuffed with NY-style winners (not even considering the possibility of a Regina Hall/Lupita Nyong’o long shot)…to the point, even with two alternates, I can’t feel confident I’ve included all potential winners.

Emma Stone’s “performance of her life” reviews would, you’d think, make her a sure-bet for the prize (as similar notices did for Blanchett last year). But how do you ignore the breakout year Sandra Huller has had? Her Anatomy of a Fall work strikes me as a quite credible critics’ winner. And, then, what do you do with Lily Gladstone, the heart and soul of Killers of the Flower Moon? Beyond that, where do you put Carey Mulligan, who, too, has received “best work of her career” reviews?

I’ve listed them below in my best-guess order, but keep in mind that any of them -– including the squeezed-out Mulligan –- wouldn’t surprise me in the least as the choice.

Winner: Emma Stone
Runners-up: Sandra Huller, Lily Gladstone

I've been thinking about Margot Robbie as a kinda outside-the-box winner like Regina Hall or Lupita Nyong'o (although I was a fan of both). This is the group that gave it to Cameron Diaz for There's Something About Mary.

[Big Magilla]

The current membership of the NYFCC is comprised of 44 members including 11 freelancers. Aside from Owen Gleiberman, Ed Gonzalez, Rex Reed, Kyle Smith, and Peter Travers, I am not familiar with any of them including the current reviewers for publications that gave all those glowing 100 Metacritic ratings to First Cow, so I'm not so sure that they will give their Best Picture prize to one of the three that Tee is predicting.

I expect All of Us Strangers and Anatomy of a Fall, both of which were nominated for Best International Feature along with Zone of Interest and Poor Things at the Gotham Awards - Past Lives having been nominated for Best Picture - to be given strong consideration.

I wouldn't entirely count out Oppenheimer although that would likely be a dark horse winner with this group. It's likely to have better luck with L.A. and NBR.

On the other hand, they do like to surprise once in a while, so maybe something like Maestro could pull an upset.

So...

Best Picture - All of Us Strangers
(r-u) - Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

Actor - Andrew Scott
(r-u) Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti

Actress - Sandra Huller
(r-u) Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone

Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr.
(r-u) Charles Melton, John Magaro

Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph
(r-u) Jodie Foster, Claire Foy

Director - Jonathan Glazer
(r-u) Kenneth Haigh, Greta Lee

International Feature - The Zone of Interest
(r-u) Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves

Note: Although I think Jodie Foster is a long shot, both the old and new membership like to reward their favorite actresses more than once. They gave Meryl Streep five wins, Sissy Spacek four, Deborah Kerr, Liv Ullman, Ingrid Bergman and Joanne Woodward three, and Greta Garbo, Olivia de Havilland, Vivien Leigh, Jane Fonda, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Julie Christie, Sally Field, Saoirse Ronan and Cate Blanchett two, Blanchett winning her second just last year.

[Mister Tee]

An annotated version of how I came to these predictions (with, as is my custom, two alternates in each category).

Best Film

My long-running theory is that the NY best film prize tends to go to the year’s highest-Metacritic-rated feature. This has been literally true the past 3 years running. The last “discrepancy” came in 2019, where The Irishman triumphed despite being 2 points below Parasite; the last true gap came in 2016, when Moonlight’s 99 should have won, but La La Land’s 94 somehow topped it.

This year, three films are bunched at the top: The Zone of Interest 95, Past Lives 94, and Poor Things 93 -– when it’s that close, any of them might win. (All of Us Strangers, which some of you may recall I touted as having the highest scores post-festivals, has dropped a bit, to a still-impressive 91.) After that come Killers of the Flower Moon at 89 and Oppenheimer 88 –- excellent scores that might have cruised in a lesser year, but, by my theory, will be outsiders in 2023.

Perhaps because of my personal love for Past Lives -– and because I’m hearing a lot of “Don’t let this early-year film be forgotten” sentiment –- I’m thinking the critics put it just above the other two top contenders.

Winner: Past Lives
Runners-up: Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Actor

Though I’m quite in accord with Sabin’s take, that this is a strong vintage for lead actors, I don’t think it’s that strong in terms of actors likely to win NY’s prize. Cooper, Giamatti and DiCaprio all strike me as prime for Oscar nominations (the first two potential winners), but none of them seem the sort to win here. From the moment I heard Andrew Scott cited as possible winner, I’ve been unable to shake the notion that he’s about a perfect NY candidate. Jeffrey Wright would run second, and Cillian Murphy is the only one of the sure-thing Oscar hopefuls I think has much chance of grabbing the win in NY.

So:

Winner: Andrew Scott
Runners-up: Jeffrey Wright, Cillian Murphy

Actress

Contrarily, actress strikes me as overstuffed with NY-style winners (not even considering the possibility of a Regina Hall/Lupita Nyong’o long shot)…to the point, even with two alternates, I can’t feel confident I’ve included all potential winners.

Emma Stone’s “performance of her life” reviews would, you’d think, make her a sure-bet for the prize (as similar notices did for Blanchett last year). But how do you ignore the breakout year Sandra Huller has had? Her Anatomy of a Fall work strikes me as a quite credible critics’ winner. And, then, what do you do with Lily Gladstone, the heart and soul of Killers of the Flower Moon? Beyond that, where do you put Carey Mulligan, who, too, has received “best work of her career” reviews?

I’ve listed them below in my best-guess order, but keep in mind that any of them -– including the squeezed-out Mulligan –- wouldn’t surprise me in the least as the choice.

Winner: Emma Stone
Runners-up: Sandra Huller, Lily Gladstone

Supporting Actor

Nearly all Oscar bloggers have locked down four spots on the Oscar ballot for this category: Downey Jr., Gosling, Ruffalo and DeNiro, with the only question being whether to go with doubler Dafoe, or one of the new-face candidates (Melton, Sessa) for the final spot. I don’t disagree with this take, but I also question whether any of these locked-in gentlemen fit the NY profile. Downey and Ruffalo seem possible though not super-strong hopefuls (Ruffalo has already won here, and they may not like him enough to go for a repeat).

I’m considering this might be a spot where some of our “too bad it’s such a strong year/these guys rate attention” candidates might turn up. Every reaction I’ve heard to May/December talks about Melton as standout. Further below the radar, many people who’ve seen Blackberry tell me how impressive Glenn Howerton is (the film has, to date, proven elusive for me). Earlier in the year, John Magaro was widely spoken of as a hopeful, and critics may want to tout him. The critics might also want to get on the Paul Mescal bandwagon, a year late, for his All of Us Strangers work. Jamie Bell could be cited, as well, for the same film. And it’s possible some tout Milo Machado Graner, the impressive child actor in Anatomy of a Fall.

My (very) shaky template:

Winner: Charles Melton
Runners-up: Robert Downey Jr., Glenn Howerton

…but, really, it could be any of the others I’ve mentioned.

Supporting Actress

A thinner field, and some Academy hopefuls (Jodie Foster, Danielle Brooks) strike me as unlikely NY choices. Even Da’Vine Joy Randolph -– possibly the surest bet for nomination in the category this year -– may be a bit too un-cool to be singled out. (Or maybe she’ll sweep the critics, the way Penelope Cruz did in ’08 –- another one I doubted till it happened.)

Speaking of Penelope Cruz, her Ferrari work seems to have been genuinely singled out by critics, and might have her in the running. Perennially touted-but-not-nominated Claire Foy has got excellent reviews for All of Us Strangers, and might slip in. Julianne Moore’s notices for May December have been uniformly excellent, and she could prevail in a splintered vote. Though her film is hardly prime critic award bait, Rachel McAdams has been persistently touted by people I respect for Are You There, God, it’s Me, Margaret? And maybe the critics will opt to solve their Sandra Huller lead actress dilemma by voting for her here, for The Zone of Interest -– as they did a few years back with Chadwick Boseman, and long-long-ago with Jessica Lange.

Winner: Claire Foy
Runners-up: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Sandra Huller

Director

For the most part, a repeat of the best film race, though with maybe more skepticism toward the newbie Celine Song, more a desire to finally honor someone who’s been in the arena multiple times (Lanthimos or Glazer)…or a one more time for auld lang syne to Scorsese.

Winner: Jonathan Glazer
Runners-up: Yorgos Lanthimos, Martin Scorsese

Screenplay

It feels to me like a photo finish between Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall –- either completely deserving. I’ll go with my heart once again.

Winner: Past Lives
Runners-up: Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things

Cinematography

How do you predict for a group that once cited films like Elephant and 2046, but whose last two choices were West Side Story and Top Gun: Maverick?

Lots of bloggers are on the Oppenheimer team, but that may be more an AMPAS choice that NYFC. I’d opt for Killers of the Flower Moon, myself; thought Prieto’s work here was far more impressive than in The Irishman. I seem to hear a good bit about Maestro, so it may be the choice. But I’m going with the foreign effort.

Winner: The Zone of Interest
Runners-up: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro

Non-Fiction Film

Picking mostly blindly here -- I haven’t seen/heard much about anything, so I’m strictly going the Metacritic route. The question, as always, is how many films the critics go for will even make the Academy short-list?

Winner: Our Body
Runners-up: Orlando: My Political Biography, 20 Days in Mariupol

Foreign-Language Film

Here, the Metacritic champ should prevail. Unless it wins best overall film, in which case, go to the second-place effort.

Winner: The Zone of Interest
Runners-up: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves

Animated Feature

I see no need to list as many as three, here. Given the year’s flimsy output (including a shocking crash for Wish over this weekend), there’s basically no chance for any but these two.

Winner: The Boy and the Heron
Runner-up: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse

First Film

Song’s film seems to have a healthy lead over the other debuts, though American Fiction, A Thousand and One, and All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt have all been well-received.

Winner: Past Lives
Runners-up: American Fiction, A Thousand and One

[Okri]

Hmmmmm...

Best Film: Poor Things
Best First Film: American Fiction
Best International Film: Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World
Best Animated Film: The Boy and the Heron
Best Non-Fiction Film: Pictures of Ghosts

Best Actor: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Screenplay: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer

[Sabin]

First stab at winners. (EDITED)

Best Film: Oppenheimer
Best First Film: Past Lives
Best International Film: The Teacher's Lounge
Best Animated Film: The Boy and the Heron
Best Non-Fiction Film: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Best Actress: Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall & The Zone of Interest
Best Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Screenplay: Barbie
Best Cinematography: The Zone of Interest