The Post-Festival Landscape

For the films of 2023
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19341
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Big Magilla »

I counted 9 biographical/real life dramas winning since 2000 vs. 9 musical winners and 9 comedy winners throughout the entire history of the Oscars. That bodes well for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, of course.

As for the other two perceived frontrunners, one, The Holdovers, is a comedy/drama, always a good combination, but the other, Poor Things, is a satire, a comedy genre that has never won.

That said, I can see The Holdovers pulling ahead of Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon for the win.

On the other hand, unless it is a huge box-office hit or a major critics' winner, or both, I think Poor Things has a tougher climb especially since it could be one of three satires in the running, Barbie and American Fiction being the others.

My predictions, at the moment, also include Maestro, All of Us Strangers, Past Lives, and Anatomy of a Fall.

I can see Zone of Interest, Ferrari and Napoleon showing up in other categories but not Best Picture.

I am also doubtful of The Color Purple making it into the top ten. It looks like a misfire along the lines of Nine which nevertheless did end up with four nominations including Best Costume Design which looks like this film's easiest get. Both Taraji P. Henson and Danielle Brooks are possible supporting actress nominees, but neither is certain.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

I thought about posting a new thread but the season is still young so may as well keep it here...

As soon as I posted my predictions I started to have additional thoughts about all of them. This is more or less how I see the Best Picture race.

It seems as though there's consensus around five films making the cut: Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. It's hard to imagine any of them missing out. In a lineup of five, Barbie might miss out and provide us with weeks/months of commentary, but in a lineup of ten, Barbenheimer built upon Top Gun: Maverick's legacy of box office revitalization. Likewise, Killers of the Flower Moon is doing about as well as a three and a half hour film can be expected to do these days. Despite some detractors on both sides of the aisle (it's too woke vs. it isn't Native gaze enough), it's probably a sure thing. Just remember, whenever a Martin Scorsese film gets eleven nominations, it wins five (The Aviator, Hugo). Whenever it gets ten, it wins nothing. And The Holdovers and Poor Things are two very different kinds of festival crowd-pleasers but they both seem like good bets. What's unique about this crop is that four of them seem like good bets for double digit nominations. But across the board, I think all these films are contenders for the big four markers: SAG, DGA, PGA, Bafta.

And that's it. Within three months, we'll have a good idea of what three more will be, and we'll go back and forth on the remaining two until Oscar morning.

I don't see any consensus online about the remaining five but the ones I'm seeing the most are these:
-American Fiction
-The Color Purple
-Maestro
-Past Lives
-The Zone of Interest

Everything that's working against American Fiction might be from a different era. It's too satirical, it's too black-centered, it's too contemporary... These days, that might not be a problem. Cord Jefferson is a really respected industry writer who's built up a lot of good will. He's not yet a brand but they're working at it. I also wonder if American Fiction might benefit from its targets as well. It's going after the book industry and not the film industry. But also, it's calling them out as being absurd and blind in their inclusion pushes and I wonder if that might speak to all sides of the aisle in the film industry these days. Haven't seen it yet and I've heard that it plays as clever and doesn't have a strong ending which is why I omitted it from my predictions but if it's liked in the industry that might be enough.

The Color Purple is everyone's biggest question mark. There's been a lot of test screenings, which is never a good sign. Neither of its two trailers look very good. And with a $100m budget, it see a lot to be concerned about. So, why can't I count it out entirely? Well, because it's very rare that a film that hasn't premiered at the film festivals doesn't show up in some capacity in the race (although I suppose that could be The Iron Claw). Is the race really over? That seems ahistoric. There's also just something about the idea of Taraji P. Henson winning Best Supporting Actress that seems... kind of right?

There's been so much written about Maestro at this point, it almost feels like last year's films. Jewface makeup. Mixed reviews from festivals, but the ones that "matter" trend positive. And of course, it's a showbiz biopic. Why is anyone anything but bullish on this film? It feels odd to say this about someone who has received 9 Oscar nominations over the last decade and change but... do they like Bradley Cooper? I know they must, but if Oscar morning rolls around and Maestro is missing, would you be surprised? I bet there are enough members left for whom something like this.

Maybe I should have included Past Lives in my original five. As someone who's doubted its potential all season due to liking/not loving it, it's hard to see any way it can't hit now that we see everything that's coming out, as well as the news that Celine Song's new film has Jodie Comer and Jeremy Allen White (which is just about a parody for attachments for a hot new director at this point). The only thing that is holding me back are whether or not enough voters love it, but as I look out on the rest of the films on the horizon I think that question might be better pointed at them. Also, questions about A24's stability are poorly kept secrets.

Finally, there's The Zone of Interest which also seems like it has a lot going for it. A24, a Holocaust drama, positive Cannes premiere. Why am I not sold? Just about everyone who's seen it seems to say there's nothing really like it that's been in the running with the Academy in ages. I know people who have seen it who have said there's not really much beyond the basic premise (what if you lived/worked by the camps) until the end. We're seeing a lot of atypical content break through, but y'know Cold War didn't.

Beyond those five, what do we have:
-Air
-All of Us Strangers
-Anatomy of a Fall
-The Iron Claw
-Rustin

There's a few others like Ferrari, May December, Napoleon, and Origin, but I think these are the major ones of what's left. I still think Air is pretty underrated. I'm not much of a fan but it seems like a good bet for a SAG nomination, it's a known quantity, it's a harmless crowd-pleaser, and it's full of industry people. All of Us Strangers seems pretty beloved by all who see it but again I hear that phrase that it's not very typical for voters. Also, how many films about writer types will be in circulation this season? I'm biased because I have seen Anatomy of a Fall. I think the fact that it's a Neon film will help but I'm a little skeptical because it really is a brilliantly directed Law & Order ep centered around the performance of the year. I won't count off Rustin yet despite moderately positive reviews because of Netflix, the Obamas, and because this is a person that's worthy of rediscovery.

And then there's The Iron Claw, which is one of the last big question marks. It hasn't been screened yet. It's A24. It's a family story and a sports movie. It has a lot of younger talent (Efron, White, Dickinson, and James) but also a director who's been on the verge for some time (Sean Durkin). I could see this going the direction of any number of forgotten films (Out of the Furnace, anyone?) that people held out hope for for the hope of something on the horizon.

How do you see the final five shaping up?
"How's the despair?"
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8648
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Mister Tee »

Sabin wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 6:15 pm
Mister Tee wrote
It's not hard to imagine Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, maybe Poor Things absolutely crushing anything on that slate. Scorsese's very unlucky that his last two highly-praised films have come in the only over-stuffed movie years past 2017.
… and Barbie?
Even though I've strenuously argued for Barbie's placement on this year's best picture slate, I'm less bullish on it as a winner (or even a directing nominee), so I wouldn't rate it quite as strongly as those other four. It has the dread "just a comedy" thing hanging over it, which is still a drawback -- witness how little support Licorice Pizza got in that group, despite being not only critically acclaimed but (by COVID-time standards) a decent box-office success.

Of course, I would emphatically have chosen Barbie over CODA, and maybe there are enough Academy members with the same discernment.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
It's not hard to imagine Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, maybe Poor Things absolutely crushing anything on that slate. Scorsese's very unlucky that his last two highly-praised films have come in the only over-stuffed movie years past 2017.
… and Barbie?
"How's the despair?"
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8648
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Mister Tee »

Sabin wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 3:51 pm I don’t think it was a beloved film. It didn’t hit with the writers or the editors. Not to derail the conversation, but outside of Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and CODA (which also might not have been a sure thing for a five slate), any combination of Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, and West Side Story. I would say probably Dune and maybe King Richard.
I'd actually argue that CODA is the first film to win best picture that I doubt would have made the roster in a year of 5. I'd say Belfast and Power of the Dog were more or less certain, Dune next, with two of King Richard, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story filling out the slate.

It's not hard to imagine Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, maybe Poor Things absolutely crushing anything on that slate. Scorsese's very unlucky that his last two highly-praised films have come in the only over-stuffed movie years past 2017.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

Okri wrote
Given that Spielberg was strong enough to get a directing nomination, I find it interesting you think the film might have been omitted under 5. That said, outside of Power of the Dog all the films in 2021's best picture line-up feel like they could be omitted with only five best picture nominees.
I don’t know. I don’t think it was a beloved film. It didn’t hit with the writers or the editors. Not to derail the conversation, but outside of Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and CODA (which also might not have been a sure thing for a five slate), any combination of Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, and West Side Story. I would say probably Dune and maybe King Richard.
"How's the despair?"
Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3353
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Okri »

Given that Spielberg was strong enough to get a directing nomination, I find it interesting you think the film might have been omitted under 5. That said, outside of Power of the Dog all the films in 2021's best picture line-up feel like they could be omitted with only five best picture nominees.

I like DeBose quite a bit and have no issue with her win, but that's definitely a win that only occurs in a lesser line-up.

Re: Gladstone - yeah, the category where she gets the most votes is the category she's placed in (if she gets enough votes for both)
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
Copy that. With the expansion of the Best Picture category, I feel like I have to add an *asterisk to a lot of those milestones.

I was not a huge fan of Ariana’s Oscar win that year. I thought she was very good as Anita, but I wasn’t blown away by it and I actually was, ironically, more affected by Rita Moreno’s performance in the same film. My choice was Kirsten Dunst that year.
That's actually my point. I think if a movie musical isn't beloved enough to qualify as one of the ten best films of the year, that really doesn't bode well for any acting category. Look at Jonny Depp for Sweeney Todd (prob wouldn't), Penelope Cruz for Nine. If the roster wasn't expanded, part of me doubts if Les Miserables or West Side Story make the cut but they're clearly liked enough.

All of which to say, if The Color Purple can make an expanded Best Picture roster, I think our Best Supporting Actress winner probably comes from there. If not, I'm not including Brooks/Henson as nominees only for the reason why I didn't predict that Penelope Cruz would get nominated in 2009 (I think I had Samantha Morton for The Messenger or Julianne Moore for A Single Man).

I wasn't really on the Ariana DeBose bandwagon either. I think it's just a really great role. Having Rita Moreno in the same film really didn't help either. Moreno's one of the greatest wins in this category ever. I don't really have a strong preference for that year. I think I liked Jessie Buckley at the time but I think Kirsten Dunst might give the better performance all around. The fact that Ruth Negga wasn't nominated for Passing made me stop caring. I might have preferred Suzanna Son and Bree Elrod (Red Rocket), Toko Miura and Park Yu-rim (Drive My Car), Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Gaby Hoffmann (C'mon C'mon), Florence Pugh (Black Widow), and Riley Keough (Zola) to any of the nominees. There's a handful of films I still probably need to catch up with from that year though.
"How's the despair?"
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6166
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:42 pm
flipp525 wrote
Not to be a schoolmarm again but Ariana DeBose won just two years ago for West Side Story.
Meant to write “not up for Best Picture.”
Copy that. With the expansion of the Best Picture category, I feel like I have to add an *asterisk to a lot of those milestones.

I was not a huge fan of Ariana’s Oscar win that year. I thought she was very good as Anita, but I wasn’t blown away by it and I actually was, ironically, more affected by Rita Moreno’s performance in the same film. My choice was Kirsten Dunst that year.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
Not to be a schoolmarm again but Ariana DeBose won just two years ago for West Side Story.
Meant to write “not up for Best Picture.”
"How's the despair?"
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6166
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote: Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:37 am The last time a performance won an Oscar for a musical was Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls.
Not to be a schoolmarm again but Ariana DeBose won just two years ago for West Side Story.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

I have no idea what Best Supporting Actress is going to look like. The only contender that looks like a conventional winner to me is Taraji P. Henson. Previous nominee in a supporting role in a musical. Why not? I just don't have a lot of confidence in the film, which is why I also don't have confidence in Danielle Brooks. I can see basically ten potential nominees a this point but they're scattered around. Penelope Cruz, Jodie Foster, Vanessa Kirby, and Rosamund Pike are previous nominees/winners in movies that I don't think will connect (although A24 and Neon have strike waivers so perhaps I should factor that in a bit more). Emily Blunt, Claire Foy, America Ferrara, and Da'Vine Joy Randolph are non-nominees in movies that I think will connect so they have a leg up IMO. Two contenders in the middle are Florence Pugh, a previous and seems like soon-to-be-perennial who was a bit derided in Oppenheimer but honestly it might not matter. Also Viola Davis in Air, a movie and performance that might connect simply by being such a known quantity. They're no slam dunks but they might not have to be.

Starting to wonder if just putting double nominees down for The Color Purple is just the way to go. The last time a performance won an Oscar for a musical that wasn’t up for Best Picture was Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls. There's no way that film would've missed in a field of ten. Look at Les Miserables. If we're only doing five nominees, that probably misses out. As I'm writing this, I think citing one like Penelope Cruz in Nine might make the most sense. Henson makes the cut over Foster IRL.

EDIT: tbh, with how spread out Best Supporting Actress is this year, it wouldn't surprise me if Gladstone ends up in this category after all. I know we said the same thing last year but if it looks like Killers of the Flower Moon might end up more enjoyed than The Fabelmans.

How would that work? Would Gladstone just need the most number of votes (re: placement) in that category?
Last edited by Sabin on Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"How's the despair?"
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10062
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Reza »

I think if Jodie Foster is going to make it in then Annette Bening will be alongside her on the list with a nod in lead.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10762
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Sabin »

Generally this is how I'm seeing it right now based on a few thoughts:
-the strike could easily go into next year and more than one film could drop off.
-I've talked to more than one person for whom The Zone of Interest is up their alley who were left pretty flat by it.
-I've seen Anatomy of a Fall. I like it fine, but I'm not entirely sure it'll go big beyond Huller.
-I just don't think The Color Purple is gonna be a thing. Reserving judgment on Brooks and Henson until I read any reviews.
-Air is a known, liked quantity.
-No idea about Best Supporting Actress.


BEST PICTURE
Air
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Viola Davis, Air
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
(removed: Jodie Foster, Nyad)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Air
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Last edited by Sabin on Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:55 pm, edited 4 times in total.
"How's the despair?"
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19341
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: The Post-Festival Landscape

Post by Big Magilla »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think The Bikeriders was ever given an opening date.

The trailer for The Color Purple looks awful. It could end up with an Oscar nomination for Costume Design and nothing else.
Post Reply

Return to “96th Academy Awards”