New Developments III

[Sabin]

It's really astonishing how shitty the record of Republican Speaker of the House is. Since 1954, the result is:
*ousted
*quit
*pushed out
*prison
*resigned

In that sense, Jim Jordan is probably a perfect fit. He's a lunatic conservative, a Trump loyalist, a terrible communicator, and he has his own scandals/accusations, and yet he might be the only figure both sides of this part can agree on. I don't think anything could help our chances more than Donald Trump, Speaker of the House, but Jim Jordan might come close.

[OscarGuy]

If, and only if, we retain control of the Senate. It's never happened in history that each chamber flipped in opposite directions, so it would be unique, but we're defending WV and MT and I'm not sure we'll keep either or both. We also need to get rid of Kristen Sinema in order to get a functioning majority. If we were to maintain 50 seats, but without Manchin or Sinema, THEN we would be able to accomplish something.

[criddic3]

I don't see them surviving in 2023 anyway, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.

Which gives Democrats an excellent chance to flip the House back and give Biden a fighting chance of passing more major legislation in a second term.

[OscarGuy]

It would be a revolt the likes of which the country hasn't seen, but anything is possible with the deranged "Freedom caucus." None of the Biden 18 would be insulated from a primary challenge on the right, so they might still fall in line, but a vote for Trump in those districts could be fatal in the general, which might cause many of them to abstain from voting altogether. That won't make them seem less apostate than they already would be if they voted against Trump, but it's a Catch-22 and I don't see them surviving in 2023 anyway, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.

[Greg]

I wonder if this scenario is actually possible. The Republicans bring up a vote for Trump as Speaker. Most, if not all, of the Biden 18 vote against him. Enough of the Republican Caucus is sufficiently angered to strip the nay voters of their committee and subcommittee positions. This leads the stripped nay voters to jump ship and switch to the Democratic Party, enabling Hakeem Jeffries to become Speaker.

[OscarGuy]

It's doubtful. The Biden 18 (the Republicans serving in Biden-won districts) won't likely go for it. It would likely mean a lost seat.

[Okri]

They're gonna go for Trump, aren't they...

[Big Magilla]

McCarthy has been ousted by a vote of 216-210.

Patrick McHenry is Speaker Pro Tem.

[Greg]

Just one other point, and maybe this is a stretch but I hope not. If you've been following the House Speaker drama going on right now, it's clear that the elected Democrats are very much united and the Republicans are in utter disarray.

Too bad Will Rogers didn't live a century longer to see this.

[Sabin]

re: your RFK Jr. point, I mean, we'll see. There's plenty of MAGA influencers freaking out right now, and any candidate leaving the one party that looks like the adults in the room is in effect joining the playpen. You could be right. I'm done making predictions.

Sonic Youth wrote
Just one other point, and maybe this is a stretch but I hope not. If you've been following the House Speaker drama going on right now, it's clear that the elected Democrats are very much united and the Republicans are in utter disarray. I'd like to think there'll be a spillover effect onto the voters, with a strong Democratic constituency and a fractured, demoralized GOP constituency. After all the havoc they wreaked these past several years, it's what they deserve.

Dems are more unified than I ever thought they'd be back in 2021. We're seeing things like AOC being sent out to make it clear to that Dems will absolutely not be voting to keep McCarthy.

Part of me thinks that Gaetz is playing some kind of long game where he knows he's probably going to be ousted when whatever that ethics committee report comes out, he wants to run for Florida governor, and by doing this "Heir to Trump" shit maybe he has a better chance if he just says "I tried to do term limits and stop funding to Ukraine and they kicked me out! Vote for me." The other part of me thinks that -- like the rest of the party -- he's just really stupid and crazy.

To this point, I have a question. If I were to say "Right now, The Republican Party is the craziest that any major party has been in our country since before the Civil War" would I be wrong?

[Sonic Youth]

Just one other point, and maybe this is a stretch but I hope not. If you've been following the House Speaker drama going on right now, it's clear that the elected Democrats are very much united and the Republicans are in utter disarray. I'd like to think there'll be a spillover effect onto the voters, with a strong Democratic constituency and a fractured, demoralized GOP constituency. After all the havoc they wreaked these past several years, it's what they deserve.

[Big Magilla]

In addition to crazy and boring, I would add that the Kennedy family is embarrassed by him, but there are shockingly more anti-vaxxers out there than people realize although that is not the main issue.

More concerning is that there are a growing number of dyed-in-the-wool Democrats and Democrat leaning independents including seniors who feel that Biden is too old, not because of his age, but because of his "doddering". Still, they would all vote for Biden over Trump but if Trump were not the candidate, Biden might not be such an easy winner over whichever generic Republican he would then be up against.

[Sonic Youth]

Everyone says pay no attention to polls this far out from Election Day, and that should apply to all polls. Kennedy's not getting close to 15% of the Democratic vote once Election Day comes around. It's a bubble that won't sustain. Notice how interest in him deflated after his first emergence? It's going to happen again. He's both crazy AND boring. It might be a bit different if he actually had some backing from disgruntled Democrats, but that doesn't seem to be the case. And there are far more anti-vax Republicans and Trump-leaning independents than there are Democrats who are more disappointed with Biden than they are terrified of Trump and are willing to risk a protest vote. Every election cycle people over-react whenever a third-party candidate emerges and it's happening again.

I disagree with, well, all of you I guess. I will maintain for the next 13 months that he poses an extremely marginal threat at best to Biden, and then time will tell. I'm not saying he'll be enough of a spoiler to derail Trump's chances either. But I'm very confident he poses no threat to Biden.

[OscarGuy]

There's a difference between Kanye West and Robert Kennedy Jr. West had no interest in actually running and didn't make much of an effort to get on ballots and do the other things candidates do. Kennedy has interest and is doing the things candidates usually do. That said, what is this Mediaite site? I've seen little or no discussion in the traditional media, nor at the politics website I watch, talking about a third-party run. Is this wishful thinking? Scuttlebut that no one is taking seriously?

[taki15]

He'll have about the same impact as Kanye West who four years ago was supposedly going to siphon black votes away from Biden and throw the election to Trump.