flipp525 wrote
What about Glenn Howerton for BlackBerry?
BlackBerry might be my favorite film of the year thus far. I think Howerton has a shot but he has a few things working against him.
BlackBerry is a smaller film that came out early in the year. I don't see it getting up for any other nominations (its script is excellent but Best Adapted Screenplay is already packed). Howerton is seen more as a TV actor so I don't know how much fellowship he'll have in the Academy. But the biggest problem he's going to face is that IFC Films doesn't really do a great job of getting their films out for awards consideration. Unless I'm mistaken, the last IFC Film to get any nominations was 45 Years (Charlotte Rampling). If Howerton gets nominated, he's likely going to be a sole nominee without a previous nomination to his credit. The only person up for Best Supporting Actor like that is Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway and he had Apple behind him (plus a lot of film roles). IFC Films doesn't have Apple money.
Howerton needs critics to seriously rally around him to have a shot. I hope he gets them but my sense is they're going to back John Magaro for Past Lives.
Just a random thought about Best Supporting Actor I thought I'd share here. At this point, it feels like there are four good bets: De Niro, Downey Jr., Gosling, and Ruffalo (Poor Things). By all accounts, Ruffalo has the plumb role over DaFoe. That leaves one spot open.
Over the last ten years, only one lineup of Best Supporting Actor nominees was entirely from Best Picture nominees: 2013. And that last spot could have gone to several sole nominees (Gandolfini for Enough Said, Bruhl for Rush, Franco for Spring Breakers) but instead they went for a previous nominee from a Best Picture nominee. Every other lineup has included a Best Supporting Actor nominee from a Best Picture-adjacent film with other nominations (5 total: Simmons, Odom Jr., Grant, Hopkins, and Ruffalo) or a sole nominee (7: Henry, Hanks, DaFoe, Stallone, Plummer, Shannon, Duvall). Only three lineups (2014, 2017, 2019) included two contenders who weren't from a Best Picture nominee, so the likeliest scenario is we get one nominee from a film outside Best Picture consideration which seems to be exactly how this race is shaping up. All signs point to Oscar voters looking outside the Best Picture lineup for someone else. It's worth noting that all but one (Henry) of the sole nominees were either previous nominees or winners. Two of the five contenders from Best Picture-adjacents were the same (Odom Jr, Grant). So, the likeliest scenario in this category is that whomever the additional nominee is, it'll be someone who either was nominated or won previously.
Although it's early in the season, it looks like Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are all going to be up for Best Picture, but there are countless films where it's too soon to tell like with The Color Purple, Past Lives, May December, All of Us Strangers, Saltburn, Air, etc. But here are some suggestions for possible sole nominees that are previous nominees or winners:
- Riz Ahmed, Fingernails
- Tom Hardy, The Bikeriders
- Anthony Hopkins, One Day (?)
- Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Those are about all I can see at this point. Again, I could see a world where All of Us Strangers gets more nominations but maybe not.
I don't see any Best Picture-adjacents like Being the Ricardos, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Foxcatcher, or One Night in Miami... with possible previous nominees/winners attached save for Paul Mescal in All of Us Strangers. I'm including Paul Mescal in both because I could see scenarios where All of Us Strangers ends up a sole nominee or a contender. I'm not including John Magaro because I think Past Lives is almost certain for a screenplay nomination at least.
Just a quick glance at this field, I would say that I currently don't see any of the classic sole nominee criteria to break through with a nomination barring a Brian Tyree Henry-type nomination. But either way you cut it, I don't see many movie star-sole nominees that jump out at me.
Like I said, there are only two nominees who were in Best Picture-adjacent films who weren't previous nominees or winners: Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami.... This is certainly possible. I only see the following:
- Paul Dano for Dumb Money
- Colman Domingo or Cory Hawkins for The Color Purple (not sold on this film as a Best Picture nominee)
- Ben Affleck (no acting nominations) or Chris Messina for Air
Not super promising contenders IMO.
So we're looking at the following scenarios:
- Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers (regardless of how his film performs in Best Picture).
- John Magaro for Past Lives (largely dependent on critics because he isn't a previous nominee or winner).
- Charles Melton for May December (largely dependent on critics because he isn't a previous nominee or winner).
- Or a classic coattails nomination for a previous nominee/winner like Matt Damon (Oppenheimer), Willem DaFoe (Poor Things), or Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon)-- all of whom would be double nominees.
That brings us to double nominees. They are rare but they're happening increasingly frequently . There have been double nominees in this category every year for the last four years. five in the last six years. How crazy is that? That is more instances in the last six years than in the last fifty (1991, 1986, 1983, 1980, 1977). So something is certainly in the air.
There's no real rhyme or reason to what double nominees get chosen and which ones don't at this point. The only thing I can pick up on is that Paul Dano didn't make the cut for The Fabelmans, nor did Jamie Dornan for Belfast, nor Armie Hammer or Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name. Why is that? I don't want to generalize. Maybe there's a degree of subtlety to all those performances?
Anyway, at this point in the race, I think it makes sense to predict Paul Mescal or either Dafoe, Damon, or Plemons.
The reason to predict Dafoe, Damon, or Plemons is... I don't know! Why not keep betting on something that works? Maybe DaFoe and Damon are likelier.
The reason to predict Paul Mescal is because he's literally in every film that's coming out for the next five years so if everyone who works with him votes for him it doesn't matter how his film does (if it's Best Picture nominated, adjacent, or a sole nominee) or if they've even seen it. The odds are probably the most in his favor.
As I intimated in my initial post, I'm off for a road trip in the morning, not returning for a week, so I won't be able to do a wrap-up of the festivals till after that. But a few items till then:
We'll know better from reviews tomorrow, but the buzz is that Linklater's Hitman went over in a big way.
Still very few creditable reviews for either Nyad or Rustin, so it's hard to know if they're genuine lead acting possibilities or just glorified blogger wishes. The trouble with films that only play Telluride is, there's so much to see in so little time, some films don't get full critical evaluation, and it's possible the people who do make the effort to get to certain films are those predisposed to favoring them.
Of one thing we can be sure: this is turning out a VERY good year. All of Us Strangers (98) and Poor Things (94) are the highest Metacritic-rated, joining Past Lives (94) among films scoring better than last year's top scorer TAR (92). Killers of the Flower Moon (89) and Oppenheimer (88) both sit higher than Banshees, last year's number two. Maestro is at 81, Barbie 80 -- we're going to have a best picture slate WAY more highly-rated than last year's (which included multiple 70s and a couple of 60s).
The "disappointments" of the week include The Holdovers only getting to 79 (though Telluride has never much liked Payne, so that might improve), The Killer at 75, and Saltburn not having enough reviews yet to qualify, but definitely not living up to pre-festival hype. Yet, I'm certain I'll want to see all these films when they open. It's unquestionably an interesting year.
Much more extensive thought about this, and how it lays out the Oscar buffet, upon my return.
OscarGuy wrote
I don't mean to hijack your discourse, Sabin, but I understand where you're coming from entirely and support that, but I tend to relate best when I share my own relating.
What I find interesting is that this hubbub didn't start until recently whereas that first photo of old-age-makeup Cooper as Bernstein showed up months ago. This all strikes me more as trying to take down a potential frontrunner than any genuine concern about Jewish stereotypes. I also find it interesting that they keep making these comments even after the antidefamation league said they supported it, as did Bernstein's family.
But, I feel about the same when it comes to straight people playing queer in movies. Though, I think at a point in the 1990s, it was imperative that people like Tom Hanks played and Denzel Washington defended a gay man on the big screen in a film that was broadly seen. That went a long way. That said, I am more irritated today that straight people are playing gay roles than I was back then. Because it's no longer about visibility, but about authenticity. There are plenty of terrific gay actors out there who could be taking on these roles, but Hollywood wants their straight white men playing heroic gay men so they can claim to be progressive and still scoop up money and acclaim.
It's why I find Green Book so galling. Green Book is a film about prejudice (against Black people and homosexuals) written, directed, and produced by white Italian guys who wouldn't know discrimination if it hit them in the face. There is zero reason that film couldn't have been made by Black artisans and co-starring a gay Black man. And that's where the authenticity comes in. It feels inauthentic because that experience and background isn't there.
I don't mean to hijack your discourse, Sabin, but I understand where you're coming from entirely and support that, but I tend to relate best when I share my own relating.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Yes, as a Jew I'd like to speak on the Maestro discourse. Which is to say the casting of Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein who uses prosthetic makeup for his nose in Maestro.
I'll just lead with my overall thought on the casting of Jews in Jewish roles. I don't care if non-Jews are cast in Jewish roles. I just want some Jews to be casting in Jewish roles. Like... half of the Jewish roles or a third of the Jewish roles. And it would be nice if when they are cast, they aren't always cast in the lower class Jewish roles. Look at The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, where the upper class heroic Jews are cast by non-Jews while the more lower class, more ethnic Jews are actual Jews. This isn't to say that I feel like Jews are ignored or oppressed within the industry. As Mark Harris wrote recently, there is a long history of many white-passing immigrants within this country sharing ethnic roles with each other. We could have a long, boring conversation about why this was allowed to happen that invariably/boringly leads to white supremacy, but I don't feel like something is taken from me when Alfred Molina plays Tevye on stage any more than I would imagine Italians feel like something is taken from then when James Caan is cast as a Corleone.
So why does the Maestro discourse annoy me so much? I'm annoyed because *THIS* is what gets people to notice. This is when anti-semitism (if it is anti-semitism) is recognized. When makeup is used to approximate a Jewish nose. When it's Paul Dano or Michelle Williams cast in The Fabelmans, nobody cares. The latter is far more damaging it's more indicative of systems of power. Spielberg could easily put his foot down and cast Jewish actors as his Jewish parents but he didn't, and I'm sorry but it shows. I didn't buy them as Jewish nor did anyone in my family who are all literally Jews from Phoenix, Arizona in the same time period. With all the outrage about Bradley Cooper in Maestro, I want to ask these people: are you annoyed that he is playing a non-Jewish person or that he used prosthetic makeup. I have no doubt that people will say the answer is both but I don't buy it. I think it's the makeup that got people to notice. But the idea of a non-Jewish actor writing, directing, producing, and casting himself as a Jewish man doesn't really annoy me when it gets a movie made about the life of an exceptional Jewish man made. What annoys me is when powerful people in Hollywood (Jews and non-Jews) "write Jewish and cast British" -- as the saying goes -- as much as they do.
But I had another, unexpected reaction to this discourse when all these photos of Bradley Cooper starting dropping. I looked at the photos of him as an older Jewish man and I thought of my grandfather, his leathery skin, his gut, his large nose, and his white hair. My grandfather was a visibly Jewish, handsome, old man and looking at that photo I thought to myself that I haven't seen someone who looks like that on a movie screen in some time. Maybe I'm hyper-sensitive because whenever I would hear or see Bernie Sanders speak there's always a voice in the back of my head saying "I hope people don't think we all look and sound like that." But as a Jewish man I can say that looking at those photos of Bradley Cooper in old-age makeup, I wasn't offended. I know it sounds crazy but I felt something akin to pride. I thought people get to see a handsome older Jewish man on-screen soon. What can I say? In a few months I enter my early-to-mid-40's, so I'm glad. I'm not remotely prepared for being middle-aged or older-aged so it would be very helpful for me if Hollywood went out of its way to create depictions of Jewish men in movies that bridge the years between Seth Rogen and Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Anyway, I reserve the right to retract all of this the minute if the makeup looks horrible in the film or whatever. But my dominant reaction to the discourse is annoyance at it, not Bradley Cooper.
(Oh, and the rumor is that Napoleon is being pushed to 2024)
flipp525 wrote
Emma Stone has entered the room. Her reviews for Poor Things are at near-rapturous levels and it seems like she will at least be nominated and possibly be in second win territory.
I just moved her up to my number one position. Sandra Huller is in a foreign language film. Natalie Portman is in a Todd Haynes film. It seems as though Maestro is a bit damaged. A nomination for Margot Robbie is probably enough. I'm skeptical of The Color Purple. Nyad, Golda, and presumably a few more are viable but they're also likely sole nominees. And Past Lives is certainly in the conversation but I don't see Greta Lee as a winner. Could all of this change? Sure, but as of now, a well-liked actress starring in a likely Best Picture heavy in a big change of pace role with a director whose last film won Best Actress seems like the best bet.
Do we know if this is going to be categorized as comedy or drama at the Globes?
Emma Stone has entered the room. Her reviews for Poor Things are at near-rapturous levels and it seems like she will at least be nominated and possibly be in second win territory.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
danfrank wrote
It’s of course hard to judge from trailers with their 2-second mini-clips, but mostly Domingo looks kind of flashy to me. Of course that is the type of acting that often wins Oscars. I like Colman Domingo, and I love the idea of a queer black actor winning an Oscar for playing a queer black man. I’ll have to see it to determine if that possibility is well-earned.
If nominated, he would be the second out LGBTQ actor playing an LGBTQ character, the first being Ian McKellan for Gods and Monsters. The prospect of a Colman Domingo nomination or win is exciting because he's one of those incredible actors who almost always lends generous support and never gets the spotlight. I think a few things benefit Domingo. Bayard Rustin is a fascinating figure in American politics who is generally unknown to the public. I think the Obamas pushing is is going to help. But also, the bar for biopics is generally so low for actors to get nominated. Look at films like Judy. They're almost rewarded for their simplicity.
danfrank wrote
Keoghan is more of an internal actor, even in a fairly flashy character like he played in Banshees, and I’m riveted by him. I’m a bit dubious about Saltburn, however. Unlike the general consensus on this board, I actively disliked Promising Young Woman. I thought it was contrived and sensationalistic revenge porn. The trailer for Saltburn makes it look fairly sensationalistic, too. I will watch it on the merits of Keoghan alone, and keep an open mind.
I'm agnostic about Emerald Fennell. A second viewing of Promising Young Woman helped it but it's a bit of a tease when you scrutinize it. On the other hand, were it just a film seen at Sundance with no clue about its awards prospects, I probably would've been more genuinely enthusiastic.
I currently have it down for a Best Picture nomination although if I could revise that prediction right now I would for one simple reason: how many filmmakers got Best Picture nominations for their first two films? And does Emerald Fennell strike you as one of those filmmakers? Not to me. Like it or not, Promising Young Woman had a strong hook to it. I don't see a hook here in Saltburn. I see vibes and the promise of opulence and a weird time.
Big Magilla wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:52 am
I watched the trailers for both Rustin and Saltburn yesterday.
On the basis of how the actors look in the trailers, which is of course inconclusive, Domingo impresses more than Barry Keoghan in the latter.
It’s of course hard to judge from trailers with their 2-second mini-clips, but mostly Domingo looks kind of flashy to me. Of course that is the type of acting that often wins Oscars. I like Colman Domingo, and I love the idea of a queer black actor winning an Oscar for playing a queer black man. I’ll have to see it to determine if that possibility is well-earned.
Keoghan is more of an internal actor, even in a fairly flashy character like he played in Banshees, and I’m riveted by him. I’m a bit dubious about Saltburn, however. Unlike the general consensus on this board, I actively disliked Promising Young Woman. I thought it was contrived and sensationalistic revenge porn. The trailer for Saltburn makes it look fairly sensationalistic, too. I will watch it on the merits of Keoghan alone, and keep an open mind.
I watched the trailers for both Rustin and Saltburn yesterday.
On the basis of how the actors look in the trailers, which is of course inconclusive, Domingo impresses more than Barry Keoghan in the latter. Right now, it's looking like Domingo, Giamatti, Murphy and DiCaprio to me with Keoghan and Cooper fighting it out for the fifth slot.
I do think that there will be a big push for Carey Mulligan for Best Actress in Maestro so that could well give Cooper the edge.
It's ironic that Saltburn's director Emerald Fennell won her screenplay Oscar for Promising Young Woman in which she directed Mulligan in her best shot at an Oscar to date.
Fennell will be represented this awards season anyhow as part of the Barbie ensemble. If Saltburn fails, she can always go back to acting full time. I'm presently streaming Call the Midwife on Netflix in which she played a closeted lesbian nurse from 2013-2017, more than holding her own in a cast that includes Jenny Agutter, Judy Parfitt, Linda Bassett, Pam Ferris, and Harriet Walter, and is narrated by Vanessa Redgrave as the voice of the author of the books on which it is based. It begins in 1957, advancing one year per season with twelve already filmed and three more scheduled which will take it through 1971.
Matt Neglia reports that Telluride Executive Director, Julie Huntsinger states:
*The Best Picture winner is among their lineup.
*All of Us Strangers is "the one I just can't get over how outstanding it is"
*Nobody is beating Colman Domingo for Best Actor.
To the last point, I added Domingo and Rustin into my list after seeing the trailer yesterday. The film looks fine enough, but Domingo looks outstanding. He's going to have a big fall with The Color Purple as well.
As for the Best Picture winner, that's probably hyperbole on her part but what might that be? A large net of options would include The Holdovers, All of Us Strangers, The Bikeriders, Poor Things, Rustin, Fingernails, The Zone of Interest, Saltburn, or Anatomy of a Fall.
All right, here are my predictions before we hit festival season. Didn't tally up the numbers beforehand but it looks like I'm predicting Barbie for 11, Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer for 10, Poor Things for 7, Killer for 6, The Holdovers and Saltburn for 5, The Zone of Interest for 3 (+Foreign Language Film), and Air and Past Lives, and Air for 2. The last prediction, I am not the least bit confident in but these are industry prizes, it is a leisurely watch, and maybe it will grow in the memory of voters. I guess I am on record being officially bullish on Poor Things and officially bearish on The Color Purple. The race I have the least grasp on is Best Supporting Actress. Beyond Gladstone, who knows? Emily Blunt is a coattails thing. I actually don't like Viola Davis' chances for Air... but she's got a good scene and she gets nominated a lot, so if voters watch the film and there's not a lot of consensus elsewhere, her clip is a cinch. Da’Vine Joy Randolph is here because she's been due for a moment for a while now and Payne seems to have the magic touch with actors. The Color Purple seems like the kind of thing that carries supporting actress contenders. And while none of us have seen Saltburn, someone from that film makes sense. That said, what if it ends up being Tilda Swinton for The Killer or Penelope Cruz for Ferrari, someone nobody is talking about but in hindsight makes all the sense in the world? We'll know soon enough. The prediction I'm coming around to is Daniel Pemberton for Across the Spider-Verse. Pemberton has been waiting in the wings for a bit until getting into the club with The Trial of the Chicago 7. The soundtrack of Across the Spider-Verse is terrific, not just for its songs but as a scored thing. I think that could help him break through over Alexandre Desplat for something like Nyad.
EDIT: just saw the preview for Rustin and I think we're perhaps underrating that film's chances a bit. Domingo looks incredible. And I wonder if the fact that the Obamas are producing it might help give it a bit of a lift in the industry. I'm going to replace Air with Rustin for now.
EDIT: just saw The Killer trailer. I'm sure it's fun but I'm just getting product vibes from it. Looking forward to the Venice Film Festival review telling me otherwise but as of now I'm dropping it from my predictions and putting Air back on.
BEST PICTURE
Air
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Rustin
Saltburn
The Zone of Interest
BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, NYAD
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
John Magaro, Past Lives
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Viola Davis, Air
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Air
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Rustin
Saltburn
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
80 for Brady / “Gonna Be Your [by Diane Warren]”
The Color Purple / Some New Song
Barbie / “What Was I Made For”
Barbie / “I’m Just Ken”
Flora and Son / Some Song
BEST ANIMATED FILM:
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Brothers Movie
Wish
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Color Purple
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Barbie
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Saltburn
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Poor Things
Wonka
BEST MAKEUP
Barbie
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Poor Things
Wonka
BEST SOUND
Barbie
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Napoleon
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Wonka
