New Developments III

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
I mainly mean that a large part of his personality has been based on things like medical/vaccine conspiracy theories, which a large segment of the MAGA crowd is super into, and on trying to establish himself as a populist, anti-establishment outsider. (Although he's

Agreed. I can only assume the last part of your sentence was "a Kennedy" or something along those lines. I think that doesn't hurt him because the Kennedys are largely figures from the past at this point, even though one of their own just ran for Senate a few years ago. There's also an anti-establishment quality that's been baked into their mythology, whether rightly or wrongly. So much so that a good number of MAGA people believe JFK, Jr. is alive and well, and getting ready to be Donald Trump's running mate. It's a fun time.

[dws1982]

I mainly mean that a large part of his personality has been based on things like medical/vaccine conspiracy theories, which a large segment of the MAGA crowd is super into, and on trying to establish himself as a populist, anti-establishment outsider. (Although he's not, as a Kennedy.)

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
There are always flash-in-the-pan primary candidates who get a popularity surge for a month or two, and he is the one right now, just like Robert Kennedy Jr has been the Democrat one (in his case largely due to being one of the first MAGA Democrats).

Do you mean MAGA in that he is largely Trump-aligned?

[dws1982]

I think that one thing in Ramaswamay's favor is that he came in kind of unknown, at least to the masses; didn't come in with years of Trump associations like Pence or Haley. Doesn't have the issue of having taken a stance against Trump like Will Hurd or Christie (again) Pence. Hasn't built his whole public persona on being an asshole like Ron DeSantis. Being young helps, because the perception is that presidential candidates are a thousand years old, even though he's not that much younger than Will Hurd or Ron DeSantis. (But DeSantis may as well be up there with Trump and Biden on age for all the youth he exudes; there is no way that man is my sister's age.) And like Sabin says, he is a bullshit artist, talking a good game. There are always flash-in-the-pan primary candidates who get a popularity surge for a month or two, and he is the one right now, just like Robert Kennedy Jr has been the Democrat one (in his case largely due to being one of the first MAGA Democrats).

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Sorry, that was poorly articulated. I think he's running third. I just have no idea how he managed to move away from the pack

Oh, I will absolutely tell you how it happened. I'll take any opportunity to talk about that bitch lol. I've been aware of Vivek Ramaswamay for a few years now. I have a friend who is (sadly) obsessed with his shit. I read his book, Woke, Inc. It's crap. He talks like a populist but he's the farthest thing from it.

I attribute Ramaswamay's rise to the fact that he's a very successful bullshit artist. I'd say more than anyone else on the Republican side, there's an emotional resonance to his campaign. He talks a lot about unity, national purpose, and a forward-looking vision, but out of the other side of his mouth, he speaks very derisively and divisively. His opening campaign ad framed "the cults of climate change, wokeism, and transgenders" as symptoms of a national rot. To say nothing of his "Raise the voting age" bullshit. And he does it all with a "I want to sell you a leadership seminar" tone of voice and smile. He has zero political experience which is now a good thing for Republicans. He's an entrepreneur who built a name for himself by shitting on DEI, ESG, and WEF, so he has bona fides. And just like all Republicans, he has zero systemic critiques beyond "These people are bad, put us in charge" although I guess you could make the argument that he has a Bircher-like fixation on social contagion. But most importantly, he's done an effective job at carving out a pretty smart lane with MAGA by claiming that the 2020 election was "in effect" stolen because the media suppressed the Hunter Biden story which would've turned the election (that's enough for them). This allows him to take a "strong position" (he'll pardon Trump if he's elected-- ha!) while also not appearing insane. Honestly, when you step back and look at it, it's almost impressive how two-faced it is. And he's everywhere!

The end result is that whether you're MAGA or moderate, you'll come away thinking that he has something to offer you and considering how polarized the "Hang Mike Pence" Republican party currently is, I wouldn't be surprised if Ramaswamay is literally every Republican's second or third choice at this point. I think he's only going to rise in the debates. The other candidates are largely going to say the same things. He's just figured out how to say them differently.

[danfrank]

I found this: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/1 ... over%20the

Sounds like there might be some smart internet strategy being employed. In reality I don’t believe he’s really a serious contender. I think Republicans in general are distrustful of establishment candidates, so Ramaswamy may look appealing compared to Haley, Scott, and especially Pence, who has abysmal unfavorable numbers among Republicans. Today’s news showed that DeSantis’s PAC is recommending that he go on the attack against Ramaswamy, so apparently some see him as a threat.

[Okri]

Sorry, that was poorly articulated. I think he's running third. I just have no idea how he managed to move away from the pack

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Genuinely confused how Vivek Ramaswamy feels like he's clearly third against Haley, Pence etc (vs being a random non entity)

I wrote about him earlier. I have a substantially more negative opinion about him today than then.

Are you saying how is he running third or why does he think he's running third? Because if he isn't running third, he's close to it.

[Okri]

Genuinely confused how Vivek Ramaswamy feels like he's clearly third against Haley, Pence etc (vs being a random non entity)

[OscarGuy]

I wouldn't count out West Virginia yet unless Manchin decides to run for governor. The fly in the ointment there is that Jim Justice, while well liked, might have to tilt too strongly rightward in the primary and still lose to a nutty Trumper. If it's a nutty Trumper, Manchin likely hangs on. If it's Justice, Manchin can still win if Justice went too far right, but his prognosis isn't great.

I didn't mention Florida, but Tee is right. Rick Scott is not only a weak opening, he weakened himself further by putting out that disastrous "platform" that included destroying social security. Considering the number of seniors in Florida, you don't mess with Social Security.

The Red Trickle of 2022 could be a Blue Wave in 2024 depending on how many pro-Abortion measures are on state ballots. As we have seen in every state except South Dakota (or was it North?), pro-Abortion measures goose Dem numbers dramatically and as long as the fascist loonies of the Republican Party continue to loudly proclaim that we need a national abortion ban, it's going to continue to be a major issue until Alito and Thomas both die on the bench and are replaced with lefties. We just have to hold the presidency and Senate until then. Not an easy thing, but becoming easier the more the Trumpublican Party remains in the thrall of the nutters.

[Mister Tee]

Mister Tee wrote
I would say it feels like particularly harsh grading to ding Biden for the now-long-in-the-rear-view Afghanistan while granting no benefit for the really well-handled Ukraine situation. Maybe you want to just split the difference (choose your direction). But judging him a failed president based on two foreign policy negatives seems way out of kilter with the general perception of Biden as pretty solid commander-in-chief.

I'm not judging him a failed President. I'm giving him the win in 2024 based on my assessment. As for the foreign failure key, I thought I was pretty clear in saying I'm unclear on how it should be assessed and I'm just arbitrarily considering it false.

I perhaps phrased this confusingly. I'm in general agreement with your take on where the Keys stand. From those rankings, I concluded the only way Biden would be a loser under Lichtman's system (which is what I mean by "failed president") would be for him to lose both foreign policy Keys -- something I find really incongruous with (I think) a general feeling that he and his team are handling that part of the job pretty well.

re: Afghanistan, I think the best argument against it being considered a failure for Biden is that it will have occurred three years prior to the election whereas the Fall of Saigon was closer to one. It won't be fresh in mind.

Yes; I'd also argue that even in real time the main reason the Afghan withdrawal registered as so negative was because the press screamed to the heavens about it. I don't get the sense the general populace much cares about it, which is another reason it's easy for it to fade as an issue. In the long run, the casualty numbers associated with it weren't even particularly high -- it's a bit like the now-forgotten supply chain issue: for a brief high-visibility stretch, things seemed to be out of control, but fairly quickly smoothed out to not a lot.

I don't think Ukraine can constitute a Foreign Policy Success at this time, although I'm struggling to think of any way that Biden or any President could have handled it differently. If Biden can somehow get a peace deal next year and end the conflict, that's the success key.

I agree Ukraine is not a slam-dunk "success" as is, and would be seen as more of one if the war were to end as a Russian setback/pullback between now and next year's election.

I was going to ask you how you expected this wider margin to manifest in the electoral college but I have a different question now. The senate map is brutal for Democrats in 2024. We have to defend Nevada, Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, as as replace Kyrsten Sinema with Ruben Gallego, to say nothing about Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania which are probably safe-ish. We currently have 48 seats with 3 independents that caucus with us which is more or less 51. I don't see any opportunities for pickups in other states. Is there any chance we keep the Senate?

I can sort of answer your first question on the way to the second. If the Democratic margin is bigger than in 2020 -- Simon Rosenberg, one of the few pundits to accurately predict the non-red-wave of 2022, thinks Dems can push to a 10-point margin or close -- that will raise the metaphorical water level in most states. Swing states that Dems carried in 2020 by small margins would become easier wins, and some states they lost by single-digit margins would come into play: North Carolina, Florida, even the ever-elusive Texas.

The Senate map is indeed tough, though don't underestimate the ability of Republicans to squander their chances by nominating unacceptable alternatives. Everyone seems to think Manchin is gone, and I won't strenuously argue. I feel like Nevada is always thought to be close, but Dems have had a way of pulling it out in recent years. Tester and Sherrod Brown will be going against state-lean (though Ohio, in a big Biden national margin, isn't locked-down red), but both have deep roots in their states, and have defied trends in the past. They don't, for the moment, seem to be drawing super-strong opponents. I like Gallego's chances of winning Arizona, whether in a 3-way with Senator Look-at-me, or head-to-head with nutball Kari Lake. I'm fairly unworried about the MN/WI/PA incumbents and whoever replaces Stabenow in MI.

There isn't a lot of fertile ground for Dems to find pick ups (barring freakish scandals in unexpected places), but the two I'd point to are, yes, Texas (Cruz, for good personality reasons, consistently runs behind national trends, and Biden only lost Texas by a bit over 5% last time), and Florida. I know Florida is generally a place where Democratic high hopes go to die, and the 2022 outcome was pretty squelching. But Rick Scott (who won last time out by .2%) is pretty close to Cruz in odiousness, Biden came within a few points of Trump in 2020, and the DeSantis reign of terror has wreaked such havoc on the FL educational system and economy that I wouldn't rule out a blue comeback this time around.

I'd a lot rather play on the 2020 or 2022 field, but I don't think losing the Senate is inevitable. A lot depends on just how much baggage the GOP in general drags into the election. The combo of Trump's criminality, the clown show running the House of Representatives, and toxically unpopular policies GOP majorities are pushing in red states, could tilt the field in a way few expect next year. People seem to assume the political environment will remain static indefinitely -- 50/50, plus or minus a few. I think a bigger shift isn't out of the question. Hemingway's famous response to How did you go bankrupt? was Gradually, then all at once. The GOP could be in line for something like that -- akin to what the Dems experienced in 1980, when their losses went far broader and deeper than the preceding years had prepared them for.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
I will continue to suggest you guys read https://electoral-vote.com/ as their analysis is pretty damned astute (and oftentimes funny). In 2018, the universally despised Ted Cruz almost lost his seat to Beto O'Rourke who had a lot of significant liabilities and still managed to come within 3% of beating Cruz. This time, Cruz is facing one of two candidates and Colin Allred really looks like a better fit with Texas than Beto. Cruz now has his infamous Cancún incident that may bring him down. Now, Texas is one of those white whales we're constantly hoping for, but stranger things have happened. It's one of our best (and probably only) pickup opportunities.

I need to see Ted Cruz get taken down. It's so important.

[OscarGuy]

I will continue to suggest you guys read https://electoral-vote.com/ as their analysis is pretty damned astute (and oftentimes funny). In 2018, the universally despised Ted Cruz almost lost his seat to Beto O'Rourke who had a lot of significant liabilities and still managed to come within 3% of beating Cruz. This time, Cruz is facing one of two candidates and Colin Allred really looks like a better fit with Texas than Beto. Cruz now has his infamous Cancún incident that may bring him down. Now, Texas is one of those white whales we're constantly hoping for, but stranger things have happened. It's one of our best (and probably only) pickup opportunities.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I would say it feels like particularly harsh grading to ding Biden for the now-long-in-the-rear-view Afghanistan while granting no benefit for the really well-handled Ukraine situation. Maybe you want to just split the difference (choose your direction). But judging him a failed president based on two foreign policy negatives seems way out of kilter with the general perception of Biden as pretty solid commander-in-chief.

I'm not judging him a failed President. I'm giving him the win in 2024 based on my assessment. As for the foreign failure key, I thought I was pretty clear in saying I'm unclear on how it should be assessed and I'm just arbitrarily considering it false. re: Afghanistan, I think the best argument against it being considered a failure for Biden is that it will have occurred three years prior to the election whereas the Fall of Saigon was closer to one. It won't be fresh in mind.

I don't think Ukraine can constitute a Foreign Policy Success at this time, although I'm struggling to think of any way that Biden or any President could have handled it differently. If Biden can somehow get a peace deal next year and end the conflict, that's the success key.

I was going to ask you how you expected this wider margin to manifest in the electoral college but I have a different question now. The senate map is brutal for Democrats in 2024. We have to defend Nevada, Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, as as replace Kyrsten Sinema with Ruben Gallego, to say nothing about Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania which are probably safe-ish. We currently have 48 seats with 3 independents that caucus with us which is more or less 51. I don't see any opportunities for pickups in other states. Is there any chance we keep the Senate?

[Mister Tee]

It happens I just ran across a Lichtman YouTube interview -- it was from late Spring -- where he was bullish on the management of Ukraine as foreign policy success, and even was somewhat pushing for policy change based on all the legislation pushed through in 2022 (though he said Democrats needed to sell that last one better). This may be Lichtman -- who is a Democrat -- massaging his own system to deliver a preferred result, but he's usually been pretty scrupulous about not doing that.

I would say it feels like particularly harsh grading to ding Biden for the now-long-in-the-rear-view Afghanistan while granting no benefit for the really well-handled Ukraine situation. Maybe you want to just split the difference (choose your direction). But judging him a failed president based on two foreign policy negatives seems way out of kilter with the general perception of Biden as pretty solid commander-in-chief.

It's definitely true that Biden's numbers took their tumble contemporaneously with the Afghan pullout (and the media tantrum that accompanied it). But it also synced up with the moment we realized we weren't as totally free from COVID as we'd been led to believe (thanks to our 1/3 of a nation who would sooner die than get a vax liberals like), and bled into the inflation bubble. Public opinion can take time to move on broad "things aren't going that well" opinions, which I think accounts for the stubbornly low approvals, especially on things like the economy -- where pretty much every indicator says things are going well, but polls don't yet reflect it (though consumer confidence has spiked the last 2 months, so that may be ready to change).

My guess is that, like Reagan and Clinton, Biden's numbers will rise next year, both as the economic improvement becomes more manifest, and as the election turns more starkly into a face-off between a decently successful incumbent and either the Defendant-in-Chief, or some lackluster back-up who's been a dutiful lackey to the Defendant and espouses all the same toxic positions. I like Biden's chances of winning by a wider margin than last time.