In passing, I'll remark to Sonic and Magilla. I'm familiar with these charges because I used to listen to Thom Hartmann a while ago but most people are not. But I'd imagine this story will matter because whenever a president passes away there's a desire to emphasize legacy, maybe revise a little bit, especially in contrast to the modern day. We saw how many articles got written claiming that George H.W. Bush was the nation's finest single-term president after he passed.
OscarGuy wrote
Perhaps I'm too old to be the target of your comic, but if the hostage situation had resolved for Carter, do you think he would have won? If he wouldn't, then the issue is immaterial. If he would have, then you have to think how much different (and better) our history would have been in the following years. Reagan wouldn't have been elected president. He wouldn't have then been able to ignore the AIDS crisis, fully bring the Religious Right into the Republican fold, and ultimately led towards the fascist ideology that has overtaken the Republican Party in recent years. Trickle down economics might not have been a thing, corporations wouldn't have been given more power and less regulation, and so much more.
Reagan was the starting point of our nation's decline and what might have happened if he'd never been elected president. Surely a compelling "what if...?" or alternate history subject that might have made.
danfrank wrote
I think Carter’s candidacy for a second term was dead in the water regardless of the Iran hostage situation, though it is a beautiful fantasy to imagine Reagan not becoming president.
I was born the day before Reagan was inaugurated so I can't really comment on what was going on but this is what I understand.
Allan Lichtman gave eight keys against the incumbent party (Democrats) in 1980, including the "Party Contest" key which is the kiss of death. That's three more than the threshold for election/re-election. I could see the hostage release affecting two keys in the immediate. It almost certainly shrinks John Anderson's showing in the election below 5% which avoids the Third Party key. Most of Anderson's voters came from disaffected Carter voters.
Carter being re-elected would have to pivot around two of these four keys:
*The hostages being returned home in time for the perception of a foreign-military failure to be avoided. Carter already had the peace treaty between Egypt-Israel under his belt so he already had the foreign-military success key to his credit. But even if they are returned, might it still be viewed as a failure?
*The hostages being returned home in time for Carter to blunt some degree of Ted Kennedy's primary challenge, possibly getting him to drop out in time, to avoid the party contest key. Barnes accuses Reagan proxies (Connally) conducting this during July-August 1980 so... maybe that counters some of Ted's primary bid?*
*The hostages being returned home in time to blunt some of the perception of Reagan as a charismatic, unifying figure. Considering that Reagan was seen as a right-wing extremist for such a long time it's not outside the realm of possibility.
*Oh, and the U.S. magically exiting recession. Which... y'know, who knows?
Basically, most or all of these things have to go right for Carter to get re-elected, which would mean Carter has to go from a crazy run of bad luck to a crazy run of good luck. Seems unlikely but he certainly prayed enough for it. Also, it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
*Obviously, I wasn't there but my understanding of the hostage crisis was that Carter was underwater during the start of his primary challenge from Ted Kennedy but the hostage crisis boosted his favorables across the board initially due to a rally round the flag effect. This caused conflict during the convention when that effect wore off and there was an effort to get delegates to be able to re-cast their votes in the hopes that Kennedy might prevail. In any case, if Carter brings the hostages home it's conceivable that he might be beneficiary of high popularity again. I bring this up to say it's entirely possible that without the hostage crisis, Carter's numbers stay underwater against Kennedy and he does even worse in the primary than IRL. I'll defer to those who were there at the time. As I mentioned earlier, my one day of life during the Carter administration doesn't count.
