First Oscar Predictions Post Fall Festival

[Mister Tee]

Will Smith's Emancipation is being released by Apple this December. Early test screenings are apparently very positive. They think they have something.

If there's anything this year needed, it's an ugly controversy.

[Sabin]

Will Smith's Emancipation is being released by Apple this December. Early test screenings are apparently very positive. They think they have something.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Granted he didn't have much to work with but since his premise is that he's working from industry buzz, mostly that of marketers, why not include unseen films? If you're just going to include films you've seen, then say so and say this is what you would vote for if you were asked. There was no way the Academy as a whole was going to go for either Titane or Simon Rex.

I don't think he only suggests what he would vote for, rather what he would predict given the options. But sure, I think he could've added a caveat that those were the only viable contenders he saw at that time. That would've probably been the smarter choice.

Big Magilla wrote
Based on Dano's lukewarm reviews I would think a nomination for him is unlikely unless they nominate Zoe Kazan for She Said and decide that it would be nice to nominate the pair just as they did Plemons and Dunst last year but Plemons, unlike Dano, received strong reviews. They just weren't as strong as Smit-McPhee's.

Yes, I did mean Armageddon Time for Anne Hathaway. I wasn't aware she was in anything else this year. Anthony Hopkins from that film is the one with two films in contention although at this point it seems that even Hugh Jackman will be lucky to be nominated for The Son. Hopkins, though, could very well grab another nod for his grandfather role in Armageddon Time. Audiences are already tearing up at his "give me a hug" scene in the trailer. We'll have to wait to see if the role is substantial enough to put him on the road to a possible third Oscar.

As for James Gray, he's way overdue for some Oscar love.

Every review I've read of Paul Dano's for The Fabelmans seems pretty identical to Jesse Plemons in that he's strong, makes a good impression, probably doesn't have a meaty enough role to warrant a nomination, but could possibly get swept along with the film.

As for Armageddon Time, Focus has had years where they've managed to guide more than one film towards major nominations (2021, 2017) but just as many where they haven't. My sense is that Focus Features is going to put its energy behind Tár. But, y'know, Best Supporting Actress hasn't yet taken shape on any level yet. And Anthony Hopkins is pretty popular these days. Sure, maybe.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
Here's his musings at this time last year, some of which were pretty asinine as well:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235000405/

Simon Rex, Titane?

I don't think they were asinine because he was deliberately not including anything he hadn't seen, which by that point included Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Tick Tick Boom, and West Side Story. I think the flaw in his approach was fairly evident in that year, but the only mistakes that he made in the top six or eight was favoring Eugenio Derbez for CODA over Troy Kotsur as well as underestimating Jesse Plemons' chances, as well as Jessie Buckley.

Granted he didn't have much to work with but since his premise is that he's working from industry buzz, mostly that of marketers, why not include unseen films? If you're just going to include films you've seen, then say so and say this is what you would vote for if you were asked. There was no way the Academy as a whole was going to go for either Titane or Simon Rex.

RE: your misc. thoughts: I don't think we should count out Paul Dano before any precursors come out especially after Smit-McPhee and Plemons scored double nominations last year; I agree that Jamie Lee Curtis is unlikely; I was unsure about which Anne Hathaway film you were talking about, but then I looked and realized you were talking about Armageddon Time and I'm going to bet against a James Gray movie breaking through for the time being.

Based on Dano's lukewarm reviews I would think a nomination for him is unlikely unless they nominate Zoe Kazan for She Said and decide that it would be nice to nominate the pair just as they did Plemons and Dunst last year but Plemons, unlike Dano, received strong reviews. They just weren't as strong as Smit-McPhee's.

Yes, I did mean Armageddon Time for Anne Hathaway. I wasn't aware she was in anything else this year. Anthony Hopkins from that film is the one with two films in contention although at this point it seems that even Hugh Jackman will be lucky to be nominated for The Son. Hopkins, though, could very well grab another nod for his grandfather role in Armageddon Time. Audiences are already tearing up at his "give me a hug" scene in the trailer. We'll have to wait to see if the role is substantial enough to put him on the road to a possible third Oscar.

As for James Gray, he's way overdue for some Oscar love.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Here's his musings at this time last year, some of which were pretty asinine as well:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235000405/

Simon Rex, Titane?

I don't think they were asinine because he was deliberately not including anything he hadn't seen, which by that point included Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Tick Tick Boom, and West Side Story. I think the flaw in his approach was fairly evident in that year, but the only mistakes that he made in the top six or eight was favoring Eugenio Derbez for CODA over Troy Kotsur as well as underestimating Jesse Plemons' chances, as well as Jessie Buckley.

Big Magilla wrote
Does anyone else think Top Gun: Maverick is second to The Fabelmans for Best Picture and that Elvis will be nominated?

Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler are not happening in Best Actor. Hugh Jackman is not a "major threat". The former frontrunner is still a contender, or he's finished, he's not a" threat" to anybody.

I don't see Michelle Williams as having a better chance than Cate Blanchett of upsetting Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress. He does list Carey Mulligan in She Said as a "major threat".

Everyone else has given up on Paul Dano in Supporting Actor. No one seriously believes Jamie Lee Curtis is getting nominated for Supporting Actress. He has three She Said actresses as "major threats" - Jennifer Ehle, Samantha Morton, Patricia Clarkson. He, like everyone else, is underestimating Anne Hathaway who is the most likely to inherit Michelle Williams' move to lead in the same kind of role. Universal has a stake in both of those films as well as She Said.

-I don't think Top Gun: Maverick is second to The Fabelmans but I would put it at 3rd-5th.

-I'm not sure if Elvis makes the top eight but I do think (at least at this point) it makes the top ten.

-Best Actor is a very weak lineup this year. I wrote "I guess Bill Nighy for Living" in my predictions but I'm not confident in that year. Unless someone else comes along, I think Tom Cruise or Adam Sandler could get nominated. Sure. But yes, Hugh Jackman is probably a very likely nominee.

-RE: Michelle Williams, we're kind of splitting hairs here because none of us have seen The Fabelmans or TÁR. That said, Scott Feinberg clearly has seen TÁR and he's not bullish on its chances.

-RE: your misc. thoughts: I don't think we should count out Paul Dano before any precursors come out especially after Smit-McPhee and Plemons scored double nominations last year; I agree that Jamie Lee Curtis is unlikely; I was unsure about which Anne Hathaway film you were talking about, but then I looked and realized you were talking about Armageddon Time and I'm going to bet against a James Gray movie breaking through for the time being.

[Big Magilla]

The preamble to Feinberg's list:

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards.

He seems to put a premium on marketing over anything else.

Here's his musings at this time last year, some of which were pretty asinine as well:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235000405/

Simon Rex, Titane?

Does anyone else think Top Gun: Maverick is second to The Fabelmans for Best Picture and that Elvis will be nominated?

Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler are not happening in Best Actor. Hugh Jackman is not a "major threat". The former frontrunner is still a contender, or he's finished, he's not a" threat" to anybody.

I don't see Michelle Williams as having a better chance than Cate Blanchett of upsetting Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress. He does list Carey Mulligan in She Said as a "major threat".

Everyone else has given up on Paul Dano in Supporting Actor. No one seriously believes Jamie Lee Curtis is getting nominated for Supporting Actress. He has three She Said actresses as "major threats" - Jennifer Ehle, Samantha Morton, Patricia Clarkson. He, like everyone else, is underestimating Anne Hathaway who is the most likely to inherit Michelle Williams' move to lead in the same kind of role. Universal has a stake in both of those films as well as She Said.

[OscarGuy]

Shortlists are announced on 12/21, so he doesn't have anything.

And having Gina Prince-Bythewood down for best directing isn't such a far-fetched notion. I've had her there since April.

That does remind me I need to update again now that the major festivals are done...

[Sabin]

Scott Feinberg's forecast: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235220600/

Takeaways:
-He has only yet to see Avatar, Babylon, Wakanda Forever, and Pinnochio.
-He thinks Elvis, The Woman King, She Said, and Glass Onion are ahead of TÁR in the Best Picture ten, with Triangle of Sadness as a Major Threat, and the Whale and Empire of Light as Possibilities.
-He has Gina Prince-Blythewood for The Woman King in for Best Director, as well as Viola Davis for Best Actress and Thuso Mbedu for Best Supporting Actress.
-He has Tom Cruis in for Best Actor for Top Gun: Maverick.
-He has Eddie Redmayne for Best Supporting Actor for The Good Nurse but no Jessica Chastain.
-He has double nominations for Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All At Once, which seems optimistic, but no nominations for the cast of She Said (which he's apparently seen).
-Did the short list for Best Original Song come out and I didn't know?

[Big Magilla]

My post-fall festival/pre-precursor predictions!

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) Edward Berger, Daniel Marc Dreifuss and Malte Grunert, producers.
Babylon (Paramount) Marc Platt, Matthew Plouffe and Olivia Hamilton, producers.
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) Peter Czernin, Graham Broadbent and Martin McDonagh, producers.
Everything, Everywhere All At Once (A24) Jonathan Wang, producer.
The Fabelmans (Universal/Amblin) Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner and Kristie Macosko-Krieger, producers.
Tár (Focus Features) Todd Field and Scott Lambert, producers.
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount/Skydance) Tom Cruise, Jerry Bruckheimer, David Ellison and Christopher McQuarrie, producers.
Triangle of Sadness (Neon/BBC Films/Canal+) Philippe Bober and Erik Hemmendorf, producers.
The Whale (A24) Darren Aronofsky, Ari Handel and Jeremy Dawson, producers.
Women Talking (Plan B) Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Bruhl, All Quiet on the Western Front
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin written by Martin McDonagh
Everything, Everywhere All at Once written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans written by Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg
Tár written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness written by Ruben Ostlund[/i]

I'm in full agreement with your predictions in these four categories, for the moment anyway.

I'm still scratching my head over Top Gun: Maverick but barring spectacular box office for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Avatar: The Way of Water it would seem to be the popular hit most likely to make it in Best Picture.

I originally had The Banshees of Inisherin in Adapted Screenplay because it was written as a play but since it's never been performed, I guess Original is the category it will compete in.

The category I least agree with is Supporting Actress, but that one's still evolving.

[Reza]

Could the German remake of All Quiet on the Western Front lead with the most Oscar nods next year - for Best Film, International Feature, Best Actor (Felix Kammerer), Director (Edward Berger), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Production Design, Makeup & Visual Effects?

Or just get a lone nod as International Feature?

I think it will sweep nods in the technical categories.

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
"Nobody Like U", Turning Red; music & lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell.
"An Original Song", Pinocchio; music & lyrics by Alexandre Desplat

I'm listing both of these selections because:
-I would love to see one of the original songs from Turning Red get nominated. They're the right mix of catchy and cringey.
-Your citation of Pinocchio made me realize that Guillermo Del Toro's films have an in-road to the music categories (mainly thinking about Pan's Labyrinth and The Shape of Water) and Desplat rarely goes more than two years without a nomination. Obviously, we have to see the thing first but Best Original Score is probably a good bet.

[danfrank]

I’m looking forward to your post on Aaron Judge’s season, Tee (hint). It’s been a doozy.

[Mister Tee]

How is misspelling The Fabelmans as The Fablemans antisemitic? .

I believe your irony meter needs tuning.

I've historically done a post-festival thread, and maybe I'll muster up the energy for one, but I honestly don't feel much up to it. Whatever mental capacity I have for non-personal stuff is currently wrapped up in the midterms and Aaron Judge, with the seemingly thin slate of Oscar films a distant third.

I'm also just disheartened by what's happening with film in general, right now. I'd hoped this year might herald a return to normal after two straight COVID-depleted line-ups, but it doesn't seem the case (hot prospects flopping seemed far more common at the festivals than unexpected triumphs). And I've come to the point where I just don't trust critics at all, as there seems to be one camp that rates movies by how many cultural boxes they check, and another that dismisses anything diverse out of hand; they're two groups I find equally repellent, and they leave me utterly unsure about movies like, especially, The Woman King or Women Talking. You add that to the fact there's still no evidence adult audiences are going back to theatres for anything but sequel crud, and it's hard to be optimistic about the near future.

I'll save any comment on individual films/performers for a later thread.

[Big Magilla]

How is misspelling The Fabelmans as The Fablemans antisemitic?

There has been little to no speculation about the German remake of All Quiet on the Western Front because it had been thought to be a Best International Feature candidate and that's all, but it surprised many at Toronto. It's going to stream on Netflix so it could prove to be this year's foreign language film that is seen by large enough audiences to have awards legs. On the other hand, it could end up as an also-ran like the recent remakes of the World War I classics Journey's End and Broken Lullaby (renamed Frantz) and the ten times nominated, three times winning 1917.

This isn't the first time Germany has sought to make its own version of the events depicted in Erich Maria Remarque's novel. Filmed at the same time as Milestone's Oscar winning film, G.W. Pabst's Westfront 1918 travels the same road but is less poetic, less sentimental in its depiction of the horrors of the war and the deaths of the soldiers we have come to know one by one until they're all gone. The descriptions of I've rad of the new version are more in line with the Pabst film than the Milestone.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
It’s All Quiet ON the Western Front.

Thank you. I personally think it's going to be all quiet on the western front when the reviews come out.

Okri wrote
a) I'm going to spell "Fabelmans" incorrectly all oscar season and not feel sorry about it, I suspect.

It's anti-Semitism. That's the only explanation.

Okri wrote
b) We see, in ensembles that are heavily weighted to the guys, the sole actress can break through with a nomination and/or win, almost as a "representative" for the whole crew. I'm think Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Kim Basinger for LA Confidential. I can't easily think of examples for the reverse, though.

Dudes getting nominations in ensembles that are more heavily weighted towards women? Not really. The examples I can think of are, like, Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right and contenders of that nature, but it doesn't quite fit, does it? I would argue that Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight isn't really a "representative" nomination. I'd also somewhat disagree with Kim Basinger if only because I am still unclear on how Kevin Spacey missed out on his career best work.

Okri wrote
c) I'm really curious about Everything Everywhere All At Once. The nature of the internet enthusiasm soured me a little on the film, admittedly. But I also think it's a film that the internet might be way happier with than the Oscars - like only Yeoh gets in on career points and enthusiasm.

That was my initial thinking. This is what I'm thinking now:
-it'll probably have some showing during the critics season. I could see LAFCA going for it.
-it'll probably do reasonably well at the Golden Globes if it's pushed for Comedy or Musical, especially considering that category is a bit anemic.
-I definitely think it'll do well at the SAG Awards.
-definitely a Producer's Guild nominee.
-DGA is unsure, as is BAFTA.

This isn't a bad place to be at this point in the season.

Okri wrote
d) Top Gun getting a screenplay nomination would be the origin story of Mister Tee going straight villain, right?

Anemic category.