Last Predictions Before Precursors

[Big Magilla]

Gaga has a previous Oscar nomination for her acting (and hardware already for Original Song; she is a “former winner”). House of Gucci is the first adult drama to succeed at the box office since the pandemic began, and much of that success is due to Gaga's presence. She'll be nominated. If she’s not currently on your Best Actress list, you should re-think that.

Too late for this thread since the precursors are already upon us, but I prefer her to Stewart sight unseen.

[flipp525]

Gaga has a previous Oscar nomination for her acting (and hardware already for Original Song; she is a “former winner”). House of Gucci is the first adult drama to succeed at the box office since the pandemic began, and much of that success is due to Gaga's presence. She'll be nominated. If she’s not currently on your Best Actress list, you should re-think that.

[Sabin]

I suppose precursors properly start today with National Board of Review.

UPDATE 12/01: Board pushed back to tomorrow. To be updated today after Nightmare Alley screens.

BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune

BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Alana Haim, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Some Actor from Don't Look Up

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kristen Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Ruth Negga, Passing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
House of Gucci
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don't Look Up
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Be Alive" / King Richard
Belfast / “Down to Joy”
Don't Look Up / "Just Look Up"
Encanto / “Columbia, Mi Encanto”
No Time to Die / "No Time to Die"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

BEST FILM EDITING
Don't Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley

BEST SOUND
Dune
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Matrix: Resurrections
The Suicide Squad
West Side Story

[Reza]

Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Cyrano
The Hand of God
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
Parallel Lives
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Best Director
Pedro Almodovar - Parallel Lives
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Guillermo Del Toro - Nightmare Alley
Paolo Sorrentino - The Hand of God

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage - Cyrano
Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick...Boom!
Will Smith - King Richard

6th place - Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Oliva Colman - The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart - Spencer

6th place - Frances McDormand - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Dornan - Belfast
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons - Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

6th place - Richard Jenkins - The Humans

Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
Judi Dench - Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga - Passing

6th place - Marlee Matlin - CODA / Ann Dowd - Mass

[Sabin]

Cinemanolis wrote
Best Picture
Tender Bar

Best Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck - Tender Bar

I like your choice of Ben Affleck for Best Supporting Actor. I could easily see the Hollywood Foreign Press nominating him in that slot. I'm less sure about the film overall. Full reviews aren't out yet but it stands at 46% on Rotten Tomatoes. Also, George Clooney hasn't directed a good film in a long time, let alone one that connects with Academy members.

Then again, I said the same thing about Jane Campion earlier this year...

[Cinemanolis]

Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Cyrano
Dune
King Richard
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Tender Bar
West Side Story

Best Director
Pedro Almodovar - Parallel Lives
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Aaron Sorkin - Being the Ricardos
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage - Cyrano
Andrew Garfield - Tick… Tick… Boom
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olive Colman – The Lost Daughter
Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart - Spencer

Best Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck - Tender Bar
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Richard Jenkins - The Humans
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
Judi Dench - Belfast
Ann Dowd - Mass
Jayne Houdyshell - The Humans
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard

Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
C’mon C’mon
Parallel Mothers

Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Cyrano
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog

[Reza]

Putting Nightmare Alley in every category and not putting Bradley Cooper on the best actor list is weird. Don't know if any reviews are out which is critical of him but just going by the original version which is such a grand showcase for the lead (even Tyrone Power nailed it) that it seems like a given that Cooper will be up for best actor.

[Big Magilla]

"That Variety guy", as of a little over an hour ago, has tick, tick...Boom! in fifth place behind Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog and Dune, and ahead of Licorice Pizza, Being the Ricardos, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Lost Daughter, and Don't Look Up.

He has Andrew Garfield in second place for Best Actor behind Will Smith and ahead of Benedict Cumberbatch, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Denzel Washington,

He has Robin de Jesus in fifth place for Best Supporting Actor behind Ciarin Hinds, Jared Leto, Jamie Dornan, and J.K. Simmons.

His Best Actress lineup now consists of Kristen Stewart, Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman, and Frances McDormand.

His Best Supporting Actress lineup has Kirsten Dunst in first place, followed by Catriona Balfe, Aunjanue Ellis, Judi dench, and Ruth Negga.

Branagh has moved ahead of Campion in his Best Director listing.

[Sabin]

I’m intrigued. Why do you think tick, tick…Boom! will be nominated? I’m not convinced they’ll even campaign it for more than Best Actor.

[anonymous1980]

I’ll give it a shot.

BEST PICTURE
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
tick, tick…BOOM!

BEST DIRECTOR
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Denis Villenueve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Robin de Jesus, tick, tick…BOOM!
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Zach Baylin, King Richard
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Fran Kranz, Mass

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Levenson, tick, tick…BOOM!

[mlrg]

Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Macbeth
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Director
Kenneth Branagh “Belfast”
Adam McKay “Don’t Look Up”
Paul Thomas Anderson “Licorice Pizza”
Guillermo del Toro “Nightmare Alley”
Jane Campion “The Power of the Dog”

Actor
Leonardo di Caprio “Don’t Look Up”
Bradley Cooper “Nightmare Alley”
Benedict Cumberbatch “The Power of the Dog”
Will Smith “King Richard”
Denzel Washington “Macbeth”

Actress
Olivia Colman “The Lost Daughter”
Alana Haim “Licorice Pizza”
Nicole Kidman “Being the Ricardos”
Frances McDormand “Macbeth”
Kristen Stewart “Spencer”

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe “Nightmare Alley”
Jamie Dornan “Belfast”
Ciaran Hinds “Belfast”
Jared Leto “House of Gucci”
Kodi Smit-McPhee “The Power of the Dog”

Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe “Belfast”
Judi Dench “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst “The Power of the Dog”
Ruth Negga “Passing”
Meryl Streep “Don’t Look Up”

[Big Magilla]

Revised 11/29 8:50 am EST

Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Cyrano
Dune
King Richard
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Top five: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story.

Best Director
Pedro Almodovar - Parallel Lives
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo Del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Four of the directors of the top five plus Almodovar whose film could sneak into the top ten in lieu of any of the other five.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage - Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick...Boom!
Will Smith – King Richard

6th place - Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Oliva Colman – The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart - Spencer

6th place - Frances McDormand - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Dornan - Belfast
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

6th place - Troy Kotsur - CODA

Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
Judi Dench - Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga – Passing

6th place - Marlee Matlin - CODA

Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Parallel Lives

Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story