DGA NOMINATIONS (No arguments)

[rolotomasi99]

I feel like MANK is in a similar position to THE IRISHMAN: critics and cinephiles admire and appreciate it without anyone truly loving and champion it as the best film of the year. MANK will probably have the most overall nominations but could very well go home empty handed Oscar night.

I think Mank will likely end up in a similar position to The Irishman in Oscar terms -- maybe Mank'll win production design, putting it "ahead".

But there's no comparison in terms of "truly loving and champion it as the best film of the year". In a very limited, weak year, Mank didn't make an appearance at any prime critics' best picture voting. The Irishman won the NY Critics and NBR best picture prizes, and finished second at LA, in one of the most competitive years of the decade.

I had forgotten about THE IRISHMAN winning NBR. It definitely did better than this year's winner since it feels like DA 5 BLOODS could actually be completely shutout of any Oscar nominations. In this century, that only happened to one other winner: A MOST VIOLENT YEAR

[Mister Tee]

I feel like MANK is in a similar position to THE IRISHMAN: critics and cinephiles admire and appreciate it without anyone truly loving and champion it as the best film of the year. MANK will probably have the most overall nominations but could very well go home empty handed Oscar night.

I think Mank will likely end up in a similar position to The Irishman in Oscar terms -- maybe Mank'll win production design, putting it "ahead".

But there's no comparison in terms of "truly loving and champion it as the best film of the year". In a very limited, weak year, Mank didn't make an appearance at any prime critics' best picture voting. The Irishman won the NY Critics and NBR best picture prizes, and finished second at LA, in one of the most competitive years of the decade.

[rolotomasi99]

I feel like MANK is in a similar position to THE IRISHMAN: critics and cinephiles admire and appreciate it without anyone truly loving and champion it as the best film of the year. MANK will probably have the most overall nominations but could very well go home empty handed Oscar night.

I definitely think Sorkin is more vulnerable than Fincher, though I doubt the ol' boys club of the Oscar directing branch will really nominate two women in the same year. Fennell is most likely the one to be left off.

[MaxWilder]

I think Fennell will be replaced by either Zeller or Vinterberg (if the BAFTA nominations are any indication).

Which they shouldn't be. Another Round is popular but, unlike Pawel Pawlikowski in 2018, Vinterberg doesn't have an Amazon campaigning for him. And until/unless The Father receives major Oscar nominations, I'll continue to doubt that it exists in any real way in the U.S.

Either Oscar matches DGA or Sorkin is replaced.

[nightwingnova]

I really liked Da 5 Bloods. Hoping that means a shot for Spike Lee.

[Mister Tee]

The thing Fincher has going for him, in AMPAS terms, is that the directing branch is, if anything, prone to adding previous nominees -- Payne in '13, PTA in '17, the dread Mel Gibson in '16. It would be very uncharacteristic of them to remove the one former nominee among the prime contenders.

Not that I don't understand all the misgivings about Mank. But it seems (to date) like one one of those movies that has awards propulsion well in excess of what seems its enthusiasm level.

[Sabin]

FilmFan720 wrote
I'm thinking Fincher -- who seems more in line with the Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) or Ridley Scott (The Martian) type who gets left off at the last minute.

I think you could absolutely be right. The only time the DGA has failed to forecast a nominee this past decade was David Fincher for Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Also, Mank is not having the strong run some expected with a less-than-stellar BAFTA showing (though non-predictive) and only one SAG nomination for Gary Oldman. I'm sticking with Aaron Sorkin though.

Mister Tee wrote
Naturally, the year I loudly announce I'm probably way off is the year I nail it.

I'm with Sabin, that Sorkin is the one that seems most vulnerable -- the directors' branch is quite exclusive, and could well view Sorkin as a writer who's over-extended himself. I always thought that was part of Martin McDonagh's omission three years ago. But Fincher or Fennell could also fall.

Except for Nomadland, this list seems to come from a different world vis a vis BAFTA. Which is great; as it should be.

I hadn't thought about the Martin McDonagh = Aaron Sorkin similarities but they're very striking.

[FilmFan720]

Except for Nomadland, this list seems to come from a different world vis a vis BAFTA. Which is great; as it should be.

And Lee Isaac Chung!

[FilmFan720]

I think Aaron Sorkin could get left off.

I'm thinking Fincher -- who seems more in line with the Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) or Ridley Scott (The Martian) type who gets left off at the last minute.

[Mister Tee]

Naturally, the year I loudly announce I'm probably way off is the year I nail it.

I'm with Sabin, that Sorkin is the one that seems most vulnerable -- the directors' branch is quite exclusive, and could well view Sorkin as a writer who's over-extended himself. I always thought that was part of Martin McDonagh's omission three years ago. But Fincher or Fennell could also fall.

Except for Nomadland, this list seems to come from a different world vis a vis BAFTA. Which is great; as it should be.

[OscarGuy]

Fennell has constantly surprised everyone this year as Promising Young Woman keeps chugging along. People tried to dismiss it, but this suggests the film is definitely well liked.

[Sabin]

I think Aaron Sorkin could get left off.

[Big Magilla]

Interesting. No double nominees. Fennell is the sole first-time director nominated for Best Director. The other high-profile first-timers, King, Marder and Zeller all made it to the first-time category.

[rolotomasi99]

You guys were right on the money.

I do question whether Fennell survives to the Oscars.

I think Fennell will be replaced by either Zeller or Vinterberg (if the BAFTA nominations are any indication). Then again, maybe Sorkin will be replaced. Fennell is certainly more deserving of a nomination than him.

In case anyone is wondering, in the past 10 years the DGA and Oscar noms have never completely aligned. Eight times only one of the Oscar nominees did not have a DGA nom in the feature film category (not counting first time category). One time there were two Oscar nominees without a corresponding DGA nom, and one (very infamous) time there were three Oscar nominees replacing DGA noms.

Also, in that same ten years, two Oscar nominees did not see their films also be nominated for Best Picture (odd-man-out). We used to see this every year before the top prize was expanded beyond five slots, but for obvious reasons is quite rare these days.

[nightwingnova]

You guys were right on the money.

I do question whether Fennell survives to the Oscars.